Just 15 years after its founding, the Arakan Army ( AA ) has risen to dominate Rakhine state in western Myanmar, controlling 15 of 17 key townships and over 90 % of the territory, including the entire 271-kilometer border with Bangladesh.
These military developments include the historical record of Ann township’s Western Regional Command office, cementing the AA’s military and administrative supremacy.
The AA’s leadership of key Rakhine state functions, from the judiciary to the public health, underpins its desire for greater autonomy under confederate status, through its Arakan People’s Revolutionary Government ( APRG ).
With Rakhine’s corporate site, natural resources and closeness to China-backed system, the AA’s increase reshapes the country’s political and security dynamics, presenting both opportunities and challenges for dialogue and stability.
The AA has established itself as the de facto governing body in much of Rakhine State in a amazing display of endurance and plan. The APRG has assumed roles formerly held by the central power, including leadership, court, and public providers, underscoring the AA’s charge for legitimacy.
Tensions between the Myanmar military and the AA have gotten worse as a result of their fast territorial expansion. The military coup has used divisions within Myanmar to exploit groups by recruiting members of Rohingya military organizations like the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army and the Rohingya Solidarity Organization, trying to keep its grip on power.
These actions have exacerbated racial tensions between the Rohingya Muslim minority and the Rohingya Buddhist majority, causing suspicion to worsen and putting a stop to violent cycles.
While the AA has articulated a vision for equality, especially through the APRG’s operational framework, building confidence with disadvantaged communities—including the Rohingya—remains challenging.
The AA’s ability to foster dialogue and exhibit diverse leadership will determine its ability to achieve long-term stability in Rakhine.
China’s Myanmar footprints
Myanmar state is a focal point of China’s Belt and Road Initiative because of its abundance of natural resources and strategic location along the Bay of Bengal.
Important infrastructure projects, such as the Kyaukphyu deep-sea dock and the Shwe oil pipeline, represent Beijing’s economic ambitions and political priorities in the region.
These initiatives not only protected important energy pathways for China, but they also improve its access to the Indian Ocean, giving Myanmar a crucial network in its wider geographical plan.
In light of the ongoing legal fight, Chinese investments in Myanmar are becoming more resilient. Since the start of” Operation 1027“, anti-junta forces have taken control of 23 out of 34 Chinese-funded projects, with vital areas affected including Rakhine, northern Shan state, and the northern plains.
But the Three Brotherhood Alliance and the National Unity Government’s People’s Defense Forces ( PDFs ) have refrained from directly targeting Chinese initiatives.
However, studies suggest that the junta-backed Pyusawhti military allegedly attacked the Taiwanese Consulate in Mandalay in October 2024. This is only the next occurrence in China-Myanmar diplomatic ties ‘ seven decades.
To prevent these investments, China has partnered with Myanmar’s coup to establish a cooperative security firm. The junta is reviewing the logistical ramifications of a draft memorandum of understanding for the joint venture, including importing security and weapons, to make sure the strategy does not violate Myanmar’s sovereignty.
The proposal indicates Beijing’s lack of confidence in the junta’s ability to maintain control and security. The presence of foreign security forces could lead to resistance from local armed organizations, including the AA, who has already a significant influence in the area, which could be exacerbated by this action.
While Chinese investments are vital to Myanmar’s economy, overt alignment with the military junta risks alienating other stakeholders, including ethnic armed groups. Beijing needs to stay in Rakhine while avoiding furthering existing conflicts, so it will be crucial to keep these tensions at bay.
Labyrinthine conflict dynamic
Deep-rooted mistrust and historical rifts characterize the relationship between the Arakan Army and the Rohingya groups. Ethno-nationalism has often marginalized the Rohingya, while human rights violations by the AA have further strained relations.
These tensions present a significant barrier to achieving lasting peace in Rakhine. However, opportunities for reconciliation exist. A potential shift in its approach is reflected in the AA’s recent statements advocating for an open and inclusive Rakhine and political dialogue.
Building trust will require concrete actions, such as addressing human rights allegations, ensuring the Rohingya have fair representation in government positions, and encouraging mutual respect.
In Cox’s Bazar, refugee camps have become recruitment grounds for armed groups, further complicating the conflict landscape. Taus of Rohingya have been drafted into the military junta as a result of reports of forced recruitment and citizenship promises.
These dynamics underscore the need for coordinated interventions to combat armed group abuse and promote peace and security. While the AA has indicated a willingness to include the Rohingya in its vision of an autonomous Rakhine, serious action will be required to move beyond rhetoric.
Greater integration of Rohingya communities into government structures and a focus on equitable development could lay the groundwork for trust and coexistence. International actors are crucial in bridging this gap. Facilitated discussions between the AA, Rohingya leaders, and other parties might provide a framework for cooperation.
These efforts must be supported by transparency and accountability to ensure they produce meaningful outcomes. A unified governance system that includes diverse viewpoints could provide the foundation for Rakhine’s long-term stability.
Enter India and Bangladesh
As Rakhine’s immediate neighbors, India and Bangladesh have a critical role to play in shaping the region’s future. India’s strategic initiatives, such as the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, aim to enhance connectivity between its northeastern states and Southeast Asia.
However, the AA’s territorial control poses both challenges and opportunities for New Delhi. Having direct ties to the AA might help India secure its infrastructure projects and promote regional trade.
Pragmatic cooperation would increase India’s influence in Rakhine as well as safeguard its investments. Additionally, India’s engagement could serve as a counterbalance to China’s growing presence in the region.
For Bangladesh, the ongoing Rohingya crisis remains a pressing concern. Over a million refugees have been displaced, which has increased domestic tensions and stretched Dhaka’s resources.
Bangladesh could explore new avenues for cooperation, such as establishing humanitarian corridors and addressing cross-border security issues, by adopting a more flexible approach to the AA. The AA’s dialogue could also help to facilitate the voluntary and honorable repatriation of Rohingya refugees.
Both Bangladesh and India should acknowledge that the AA is de facto a major player in Rakhine and work with it as a key player. Such a strategy could promote regional interests that are mutually beneficial.
What can be done?
The path to sustainable peace and stability in Rakhine requires a multifaceted strategy that prioritizes governance, regional collaboration, and humanitarian relief. Key steps include:
- Promoting inclusive governance: The AA needs to move beyond its military accomplishments to demonstrate its capacity for inclusive leadership. This includes protecting the rights of all communities, particularly the Rohingya, and creating equitable governance structures that reflect Rakhine’s diversity.
- Promoting constructive dialogue: Building trust and addressing historical grievances requires international support for dialogue between the AA, Rohingya groups, and other stakeholders. These initiatives should be transparent and have mechanisms in place to control progress and accountability.
- Leveraging strategic investments: China, India and other stakeholders must ensure their projects contribute to the socioeconomic development of Rakhine’s communities. Investments in education, healthcare, and infrastructure can foster goodwill and mitigate the underlying drivers of conflict.
- Enhancing humanitarian assistance: Regional actors, including Bangladesh and India, should facilitate cross-border aid to address the acute needs of displaced populations. Coordinated efforts with international organizations can restore people’s lives and end suffering.
Rakhine’s challenges are immense but not insurmountable. Through inclusive governance, strategic cooperation and sustained international support, the region can transition from conflict to stability.
Rakhine has the potential to serve as a model of resilience and progress in a troubled environment by addressing historical grievances and encouraging collaboration.
Aung Thura Ko Ko ( aung@pacforum .org )  , is a research fellow at the Pacific Forum and holds a Master of Public Policy from the University of Oxford. With the author’s kind permission, this article first appeared on Pacific Forum.