ASEAN Visitors
Dr Ian Storey, Senior Fellow at the ISEAS- Yusof Ishak Institute, told CNA that Singapore, the Philippines and Timor- Leste have all taken a sturdy stand over Belarusian aggression against Ukraine, so it’s not astonishing they may attend.
Singapore is the only local nation to have imposed punitive sanctions against Russia of the nations that have confirmed their presence.  ,
Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong made a statement earlier this month that Sim Ann, the city’s top foreign affairs minister, would travel to represent the nation at the peace conference.  ,
In his first trip to the land, Mr. Zelenskyy personally invited Asian President Bongbong Marcos to participate in the conference on Jun 3, Mr. Zelenskyy traveled to the Philippine capital Manila. He claimed that Mr Marcos confirmed his enrollment, according to press reports.  ,
” Your ( Philippines ) voice is very important. This area is very important”, Zelensky said, as quoted in localized media platform PhilStar.
But, about a week later, Mr. Marcos confirmed that he would be represented by Carlito Galvez Jr., the president’s spokesman for peace, peace, and cohesion.
The president’s absence from the event has not yet been addressed by the Presidential Communications Office (PCO ).
Thailand has confirmed that Russ Jalichandra, its assistant foreign secretary, will represent it at the conference.
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, a major NATO person in the Russia-Ukraine issue, met with French President Emmanuel Macron, who confirmed Thailand’s cooperation during his May meeting with the paper.  ,
Thailand late abstained from two UN resolutions and casts a ballot in favor of four of them.
Indonesia has also confirmed that it will take its embassy to the mountain.
Dr. Alan Chong, Senior Fellow at Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, noted that both the Israeli-Palestinian militant group Hamas and the approaching president Prabowo Subianto have spoken out against another present conflict,  .
Mr Prabowo just held a conference on Jun 11 with major US envoy Antony Blinken , in Jordan to discuss , attempts to find a peaceful answer to the Israel- Palestinian issue.
Dr. Chong thinks Indonesia’s attitude toward the upcoming peace conference has been influenced by this.
“( It ) wants to take the moral high ground, and speak out against all aggression”, he told CNA. You ca n’t say you condemn Israel but not Russia, you know.
He continued,” It- Leste is using the conference as a political light” to demonstrate that it has democratic allies outside the regional union.  ,
” It is trying to get into ASEAN, but it wants to play hard to get”, he said.
” President ( José ) Ramos- Horta is using this event as a signal to ASEAN to say’ we’ve got friends elsewhere ‘”.
THE LIKELY ABSENTEES
Hun Sen, the former Cambodian prime minister, announced on June 7 that the nation would never attend because Russia had not been invited, and the event is not anticipated to be successful. His son, Mr. Hun Manet is currently the country’s prime minister.
Secretary of State and top Cambodian national Kung Phoak emphasized that the selection had no bearing on Cambodia’s position on the battle at the” Cambodia’s Foreign Policy in the ASEAN Context” Discussion Forum.
According to him,” A sovereign state has the right to decide whether all of the problems will contribute to the effort to find a solution that leads to lasting serenity,” he said, adding that it cannot be regarded as a change in Cambodia’s place.
In his remark published a moment earlier on ISEAS- Yusof Ishak Institute’s Fulcrum page, Dr Storey had written that Cambodia’s reaction may be interesting to watch.
He noted that when the invasion occurred, Mr. Hun Sen had resisted Chinese pressure to withdraw from the UN General Assembly’s commitments regarding Ukraine.  ,
” As Zelenskyy has charged, but China has denied, Cambodia may well have come under pressure from Beijing to stay ahead. If Prime Minister Hun Manet does come to Switzerland, it suggests he is determined to preserve Cambodia’s corporate autonomy”, Dr Storey wrote.
Malaysia is the next ASEAN nation to turn away from attending. Anwar Ibrahim, the prime minister, has spoken out more about the Gaza War, but he has abstained from the peace conference in contrast to his Indonesian peers.  ,
Some ASEAN nations that are deemed unfit to go have long-standing ties to Russia, according to Dr. Storey.  ,
Myanmar has gotten closer to the Kremlin in a bid to stable Russian military equipment since the military seized control of the nation and ousted a democratically elected government in February 2021.  ,
Since the coup, defense relations between Russia and Myanmar have been at an all-time high, according to a political scientist from Yangon who was quoted in Nikkei Asia.  ,
According to a Finnish think tank SIPRI, quoted in Fulcrum, between 2021 and 2022, Russia provided Myanmar with US$ 276 million in military products.
Myanmar and Russia celebrated the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations in February of last year. Russia was the only significant authority to recognize the Tatmadaw government’s 2021 power get.  ,
Similarly, Myanmar was the only ASEAN associate state to embrace Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and to deliver defense supplies to Russia’s military forces.
Vietnam has so far taken a more natural position on the battle in line with its commitment to “bamboo diplomacy.”
Vietnam has historic ties to Russia, despite the Taiwanese government’s donation of US$ 500, 000 to global reduction organizations during the first year of the conflict in Eastern Europe.  ,
One of the biggest arms imports in the world over the past few decades has been Vietnam, which has sourced a lot of equipment from Russia, but according to local media, the Southeast Asian nation placed no considerable orders last yr.  ,
Vietnam voted against the movement to reduce Russia from the UN Human Rights Council on April 7, 2022, and voted against four UN General Assembly resolutions that condemned Russia’s invasion on Ukraine between 2022 and 2023.  ,
Like Vietnam, Laos equally has forged ties with Russia in the past. Russia made the decision in 2003 to rescind 70 % of Laos ‘ national debt and offer favorable terms for the country’s$ 378 million US debt over the course of 33 years.
More recently, a number of business communities have been held in both Laos and Russia to promote teamwork in the online market, smart cities, training and commerce.
Russia has reportedly stated that it will support the modernization of Laos ‘ healthcare system. In 2021, it provided US$ 12 million to upgrade the Mittaphab Hospital in Vientiane.
Vietnam and Laos are close ally of Russia, and they are not going to the summit. Both nations are still indebted to Moscow for the significant support the Soviet Union gave them during the Cold War. Both nations rely on Russia to keep their armed forces, which are equipped with Russian weapons, in place, according to Dr. Storey.
President Putin is also scheduled to travel to Vietnam from June 19 to June 20, and Hanoi wo n’t want to offend the Kremlin during the course of his visit.
Brunei is still deliberating on the invitation, although Dr Storey believes that” they appear to have declined the invitation”, citing his sources in the Brunei government.  ,
The summit will have one unifying factor of importance to all its members, according to Dr. Storey as ASEAN leaders weigh up various factors that are used to make their decisions.  ,
The discussions on food security will be the most crucial part of the summit from the perspective of Southeast Asia, he told CNA.
The war’s biggest effect on the area is that it has caused rising food and energy costs. Because Russia and Ukraine are both major exporters of food and fertilizers, Southeast Asia has been negatively impacted by the disruptions to their exports.
However, others take a bleaker view.  ,
James Chin, a professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania, said he has no idea whether the summit will have any lasting effects.  ,
” This is more a PR exercise than anything else”, he said. No one believes that any outcome of the Global Peace Summit will be achieved without the assistance of all of the major powers.
Additional reporting by Ericssen.