You may have seen recent articles like” China and Philippines accuse each other of driving ships in the South China Sea” and” Philippines and Taiwanese coast guard boats meet in the South China Sea.”
You may assume that what transpired was an event where either one party or no one was accountable based on those articles. Taiwanese ships entered Philippine waters and purposefully attacked a Filipino fleet, according to what really happened.
Why is n’t the US, a defense treaty ally of the Philippines, responding to this and the many other attacks by China? It’s that secret spell that disarms Americans: “gray area”.
The US government is also powerful—maybe the nation’s strongest military. But the terms grey area seem to cause the entire army, the commander-in-chief and his team to short-circuit.
What is black area?
When an adversary violates our rights, sometimes seriously, but we do n’t think it’s worthwhile to start a war over, we typically invoke the gray zone.
Taiwanese ships and aircraft may be interfering violently and frequently extremely with US military vehicles and aircraft operating in the South China Sea. Or, as seen constantly over the last 18 months, the Taiwanese pushing and water-cannoning America’s Filipino supporters trying to replenish their own boats in their own country.
Call this gray area, and Americans act as though they ca n’t. As if there were to be a decision between doing everything, doing nothing at all, or a nuclear war. We assume that this is just the Chinese “acting up,” rather than what it is: conflict.
Yes, it’s at the lower end of the conflict spectrum, but the other side does n’t make such neat distinctions. It’s all warfare to them – even if there’s no firing involved. Dynamic warfare can be much simpler or perhaps not necessary when these grey zone operations are carried out correctly.
China’s white area gets
Through these activities, China is improving its place and skills while weakening its opponents and their allies—not least physiologically. This creates a sense of impotence, bafflement and inevitable battle. And American consistency is being shredded.
The Americans have convinced themselves that the PRC was n’t much of a threat for the majority of the past 30 years if gray zone was all they could do. Therefore, no need to get America’s personal defenses in order.
This reflects two radically different warfare theories. Americans demand standard authorization to use deadly force and a statement that we’re at war. We believe there is still a chance to make friends and are n’t too likely to overlook unfavorable behavior in the interim.
The Chinese Socialists, but, see war as a band involving a range of actions that harm and risk the army – setting it up for battle. And most of those activities do n’t involve kinetic activity such as , shooting.
Over the past ten years, Beijing has used hard power tools to take de facto control of the South China Sea, most of which have been” threat deflated” by calling them “gray zones,” including China’s coast guard, People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ), navy, maritime militia, and fishing fleet.
But consider the results: effective control over some of the world’s most corporate and economically significant waters, supported by new artificial islands and military installations, which demoralize our friends and make us question our resolve.
China’s purposes were visible. But it appeared to be pointless to quit them altogether. Even a USINDOPACOM chief blasted the construction as” the great walls of sand” indignantly.
We act as though avoiding whatever “escalatory” is the main factor when deciding on a reply. That typically entails backtracking. However, the other side risks lives and simply does not care if someone got killed. In reality, China may welcome it in some cases.
China would like the Chinese to fire only one shot in the case of Japan, and the PRC would claim that the country was provoked into a ferocious, dynamic response that involved grabbing territory. The same with the Philippines.
Gray area in the US
More than just the South China Sea is a black zone, and it includes armed and military operations as well. It is not always directed at military goals.
American drug trafficking in the PRC’s gray area is now killing by the hundreds of thousands.
Over 70, 000 Americans were killed by the fentanyl attack last year ( while much more were injured ), and there have been upwards of one million Americans killed by the fentanyl butcher’s bill in the last ten years.
But since it’s the gray zone, we do n’t fight back. Certainly the Democrats, no the Republicans.
The majority of the US Office of Personnel Management’s files on 23 million Americans who have security clearances were taken from Chinese virtual war, as well as the plans for the designs for the F35 fighter and C17 transportation.
Even stolen: enormous amounts of US business intellectual property, a offense that destroyed whole sectors of the British market. And the culprits are setting up in our vital system, ready to hit us.
The sanctions? Next to nothing. It’s white corridor, after all. Can’t chance nuclear war or threatening Wall Street and the US-China Business Council, you know. This severely harms our country, weakens our national threats, and gives the PRC a competitive edge.
Responding to grey area actions
What should we do?
Second, recognize it for what it is. The Filipinos, who have been under constant attack, have rejected the term gray zone completely and now call the ramming of their ships and attempts to seize their territory what it is: illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive ( ICAD ) actions.
Put yet more plainly, these so-called grey zone functions are acts of war.
Our response does n’t need to match directly the offending behavior. Nor need it be equal or ‘ “in style”. However, it needs to make the other party feel bad about what they did and worried that their actions will cost them yet more.
This calls for a willingness to take some risks. If you wo n’t take risks the aggressor has the advantage. If Chinese ships are interfering and asking for collision, do n’t back off. If they are pumping medications into the US,  , hit , them tight – even if Wall Street complains or issues at Wal-Mart cost a little more.
Maybe removing the Women’s Bank of China from the US money system for a month. Or perhaps a rapid, strict restrictions on all technology exports. And to really reach them, introduce the CCP leading leadership’s personal corruption.
But did we? One magic. For America’s aristocracy, it seems that nothing is ever really for pushing back around. It’s the worry of escalation that’s part and parcel of gray-zone immobility. America’s wealthy can often persuade themselves it’s the “adult” or” businesslike” approach.
Do n’t be alarmed if the Chinese continue to push and make life miserable for Americans who lose family members to fentanyl and jobs to Chinese businesses built off the theft of American technology.
And it does n’t get any easier the longer you wait. It gets harder. And when the PRC’s companions – Russia, North Korea, Iran, Venezuela and Cuba – step up their own grey zone actions, encouraged by China’s victory, things may get much worse.
Generally, immobility is caused by an external signal or things outside one’s control.
But when it comes to gray-zone paralysis, it’s completely our decision.
Former US minister and previous US Marine official Grant Newsham. He is a fellow at the Yorktown Institute and the Center for Security Policy. He was the first Sea liaison officer to join the Japan Self Defense Force. He is the author of the book, When China Attacks: A Warning To America.
The Sunday Guardian published this article for the first time. It is republished with authority.