Very frequently do we experience tyrant fear, jealousy, and apprehension about the authority and decisiveness of contemporary autocracies like China and Russia. This month may serve as a remedy for these emotions, as it has been a horrible December for rulers. The democratic West has no triumphed, in any way. However, it does indicate that our prospects of overcoming the demagogues are better than what our melancholy self-flagellation has led us to believe.
No one needs to feel guilty for Bashar al-Assad and his home, or for having to move from Damascus to humbler areas in Moscow. Let’s not feeling sorry for President Vladimir Putin for hosting this failed president whose demise has exposed Russia’s own weakness, probably denying it access to its naval and air bases in the Mediterranean.
We also need to feel no regret for Iran’s Ayatollahs and Revolutionary Guards, who have seen their allies in Gaza, Lebanon, and presently Syria completely destroyed this year, and for which Iran’s individual defense systems have been cruelly exposed. The strategies of using these armies to project Egyptian energy and undermine Israel, the Ayatollahs ‘ army, are in ruins, but Hamamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Oman can become re-armed and reborn.
The estimated 12, 000 North Vietnamese soldiers who have been deployed to combat alongside Russia’s weak troops are now being targeted and some may soon get killed by long-range Ukrainian weapons. However, their Pyongyang tyrant, who lives there, deserves no pity for his support for Russia. It has gained him some cash and some weapon technologies, but little more.
President Kim Jong-un has watched his democratically elected equivalent Yoon Suk Yeol make a fool of himself on December 3 by attempting to control an unfriendly legislature in the” Demilitarized Territory,” but Kim has little to moan about. Since 1953, Kim has watched his politically elected rival. President Yoon’s failed coupd’etat demonstrated the power and endurance of South Korea’s politics.
The big question is how will these December catastrophe affect the relationship between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea as West-invaders. The actual power on the plane, China, has attempted to present itself as a rising, peace-seeking state that stands as an alternative to the declining, dishonest United States. Three of the four have been violent breaks of international rules. Anyone who witnessed China and its fellow travelers in awe of its beginning of the year ought to have then had their eyes opened to the less remarkable reality.
Make no mistake: the West has plenty of issues also. Japan has a weak state, Germany, a fell state, France, no state, and the United States has re-elected a leader who holds America’s personal friends in contempt and ( like the overdue Silvio Berlusconi ) prefers talking to Putin, Xi and Kim to having to deal with democratic institutions. However, the West also has reason to be optimistic about what might be accomplished in 2025 in the presence of for unpopular foes.
The conflict in Ukraine is the first option. In defense words, both the Ukrainian and the Soviet troops are exhausted. Both armies gained ground in 2024: the Ukrainians invaded and held onto place in Kursk, inside Russia, and the Russians moved slowly in the southeast region of Ukraine, but despite significant deaths, have managed to occupy just 0.4 % of Ukraine’s place since January 1. And then, Assad’s collapse in Syria has resulted from the failure of both Russia and Iran.
This has significantly reduced President-elect Trump’s reward to bully Ukraine into accepting Russia’s luxurious and exaggerated peace problems. And it has significantly increased Putin’s motivation to make those things worse in the hopes of preventing additional embarrassments. Trump has the option to start his presidency by presenting himself as a powerful member of the free world rather than a beggar of favors.
A peace in the springtime of 2025 could be in both sides ‘ interest. If Ukraine’s Western allies, led by Poland, Germany, the UK, Sweden, Finland, and the Baltic States may agree to provide security guarantees and finance, which in Russia’s weakened condition looks an easier process than before, there must be a good chance that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be able to get a package that maintains his country’s independence, politics and German future.
The second opportunity, which is more one for Europe and Japan to exploit than Trump’s self-centered America, is to improve relations with the vast, and fast-growing, parts of the world that have preferred to avoid alignments either with China and its axis or with the West. Southeast Asia, the Gulf nations of the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America have all resisted supporting the West in favor of Ukraine while accepting funding from China and Russia but not from dominance.
Due to the established anti-Western axis’ weakness, China’s appeal as an alternative global leader has decreased. Although China’s economy continues to be important, it is currently suffering from the debilitating deflation and slow growth that caused Japan to stagnate in the 1990s. Countries in the so-called” Global South” will be more willing to accept alternative offers from the West than they will want to antagonize China or lose its money.
Given the ongoing regime change in Syria, Italy’s Mattei Plan for North Africa now has a better chance of succeeding, as does Japan’s push to provide military assistance and guidance in Southeast Asia. Russia’s weakness makes it more crucial than ever that Europe promotes its own values and influence in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, both of which have a good chance of being taken seriously. After Germany’s February elections, a new government can form a new agenda, hopefully with renewed confidence in the liberal West’s ability to defeat these fragile autocrats.
This is the English translation of an article that La Stampa published in Italian on December 16th, originally published in English as Bill Emmott’s Global View. It is republished with permission.