In a mid-January update and strategic partnership agreement, Russia and Iran emphasized their mutual respect. Therefore, Putin and his associates are in a good position to pressure Iran’s counterparts into engaging in good faith talks and explaining Trump’s innovative foreign policy.
Russian involvement could also benefit from the Trump administration’s interaction, increasing the chances of any potential US-Iranian discussions to succeed, possibly leading to the creation of their own jointly useful” New Detente.”
Russia and Iran are a lot like one another, but it’s also on excellent terms with Israel, in comparison to some of the false assumptions that have grown over the past few years about how close they have been.
Russia avoided a bullet by properly choosing not to support the now-defeated, Iran-led” Opposition Axis” during the most recent regional conflict, which was only rewarded by, according to reports, Israel’s lobbying efforts to persuade the US to permit Russia to maintain its bases in Syria.
Israel is good satisfied that the US has reportedly engaged Russia in mediation, especially given that it is thought that Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, has faith in Putin.
Some Israeli rulers and the media may be staunch opponents of the growth, but they’re good useless to scuttle a wedge between Russia and the US, not to mention Russia and Iran.
As a result, talks between Russia and Iran will probably go on without any outside interference, and they may end up being more successful than many would have anticipated.
Interestingly, Netanyahu will likely meet with Putin at that time for a thorough briefing on the deals because Russia  invited , Israel to enter its Victory Day rally at Red Square on May 9.
The Russian leader needs to state his motivations for negotiating an Iranian-US” New Detente,” which could include the need to keep transit with India along the NSCTC, as well as carry out their energy plans as described below.
Trump’s reinstated “maximum force” policy against Iran poses a major challenge, which relevantly entails the risk of secondary sanctions against next countries like India. In terms of Trump’s intentions, he wants to reach a comprehensive agreement with Iran, which could help him with his planned” Pivot ( back ) to Asia” policy of more muscularly containing China, which Putin might be able to support.
The US’ objectives are to persuade Iran to accept a new nuclear agreement, limit its nuclear missile programme, and mileage itself from the” Resistance Axis” in exchange for gradual restrictions relief, all of which may ease Israel and Saudi Arabia’s security worries and lessen the likelihood of a regional conflict.
Trump’s head’s sword of Damocles hangs over his mind, making it impossible for him to concentrate entirely on China. Without Putin’s assistance, he also has a slim chance of persuading Iran to consent to his words.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian will have to swallow a bitter pill if he accepts still portion of what the US is demanding, to be sure, because the US is demanding a lot from Iran.
However, his country’s significantly weakened local standing after the most recent Middle Eastern battle increases his chance of winning.
Pezeshkian might also be enthralled by the aforeseen chance of forming a “gas OPEC” with Russia, the US, and perhaps Qatar in exchange for allowing US power companies to enter Iran under stringent conditions.
From Israel’s point of view, it might not review of any Iran-US relationship, regardless of how it develops. However, this could also give the US liquidity to force Iran to adhere to any agreement they make without suffering from retaliation.
Tehran will be more willing to abide by any deal if Iran’s financial interests largely depended on the US, either directly through investments or indirectly through sanctions relief.
If an Iranian-US” New Detente” follows Putin’s recently-released Russian-US” New Detente” as a result of Trump’s recent bold actions in Ukraine, it had entirely change Eastern European geopolitics and open up new geo-economic opportunities, and it would also speed up the global widespread transition to multipolarity.
This article was originally published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack, and it has since been republished. Subscribe to the Andrew Korybko Newsletter around.