South Korea is heading into a critical round of trade deals with the United States in Washington on April 24. These discussions come at a time of mounting pressure from both Washington and Beijing, and the choices Korea makes today will considerably form its future economic and strategic direction.
The United States is urging South Korea to fit more tightly with its broader attempts to counter China. Washington is seeking assistance on a number of sides – export controls, purchase restrictions and supply chain reform – all aimed at curbing Beijing’s industrial and economic impact. But this is no longer simply about business. It is a turning point for Seoul, a minute to decide whether to pursue the US guide, assert its autonomy or get a more measured path – a multi-alignment strategy.
What the US needs
At the heart of US expectations is the issue of taxes. The Trump presidency has imposed 25 % mutual tariffs on major Asian imports, especially cars and material. Though the taxes were suspended for 90 days, Korea is pressing for continuous treatment to reduce financial uncertainty for its companies.
The disparity in diplomatic trade is another key issue. The US trade deficit with Korea reached$ 55. 7 billion in 2024, prompting Washington to call for greater exports of British goods, especially energy materials like liquefied natural gas. In reply, Korea is proposing broader cooperation in proper sectors, such as manufacturing and involvement in major US facilities projects, including the Alaska gas pipeline – offering common economic and geopolitical benefits.
Semiconductors are a major point of contention. With the US reportedly considering new tariffs on Korean chips, Seoul has already unveiled a 33 trillion won ($ 23 billion ) support package to reinforce its semiconductor industry. This reflects Korea’s desire to remain a global tech leader while bracing for possible shocks from US trade policy.
Although not officially on the agenda, the sensitive issue of defense cost-sharing may also surface in the talks. While South Korean officials insist this is unrelated to trade, there is speculation that Washington may raise it, potentially complicating the tone of the negotiations.
Perhaps the most complex issue is Korea’s economic relationship with China. The US is expected to pressure Seoul to reduce its dependency on Chinese trade and align with Washington ’s export controls that target exports of advanced technology to Beijing.
While South Korea has shown some willingness to cooperate, it is also seeking economic incentives to soften the blow of potential losses from a slowdown in China-bound trade. Washington ’s push for Korea to join the “Economic Prosperity Network ” – a framework aimed at restructuring global supply chains away from China – is further complicating matters. South Korean industries, still wary after the THAAD backlash, are concerned about provoking China and facing another wave of economic retaliation.
Meanwhile, the US has implemented new outbound investment restrictions on certain Chinese tech sectors, effective January 2025. While these measures primarily affect American companies, Seoul is monitoring them closely, assessing possible indirect impacts and preparing suitable responses.
Seoul is also seeking a reduction or delay of new tariffs on South Korean exports and, in return, offering deeper cooperation in fields like shipbuilding, clean energy, and digital infrastructure – areas where mutual benefit can be found without fully compromising strategic autonomy.
The high cost of saying ‘yes ’ or ‘no’ to Washington
The stakes are high. If Korea says “yes ” to US demands, the benefits are tangible. Tariff relief would directly support key Korean industries, and expanded cooperation in semiconductors, batteries, and renewable energy could enhance Korea’s technological edge. Such alignment would deepen the bilateral alliance and strengthen Seoul’s presence in Washington-led initiatives.
Yet the risks are equally significant. Aligning too closely with Washington could provoke harsh retaliation from China – Korea’s largest trading partner. Beijing has already warned countries seeking exemptions from the Trump-era tariffs not to make deals at its expense. While China claims to respect nations ’ efforts to resolve trade disputes with the US, it insists that they must also “stand on the side of fairness and justice ” and “on the correct side of history. ”
The tone of China ’s recent statements suggests that it is taking this issue very seriously and is in no mood to let such deals proceed without imposing serious consequences on countries that act against its interests.
As seen during the THAAD deployment, Beijing may react with export bans, consumer boycotts, or diplomatic pressure. Overreliance on the US could also expose South Korea to political shifts in Washington and limit Seoul’s freedom to maneuver. Most importantly, South Korea risks losing its strategic autonomy – the ability to set its own course and engage multiple powers on its own terms.
On the other hand, if South Korea refuses US demands, it preserves its strong economic relationship with China. It avoids immediate retaliation, protects its exports and upholds its position as an independent middle power.
But this approach is also not without cost. US incentives for Korean firms could disappear. Access to American subsidies and collaborative opportunities in high-tech sectors might dry up. Korea could be excluded from future US-led initiatives such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, QUAD or emerging digital and defense networks. Washington might also begin to question Korea’s reliability as an ally, weakening Seoul’s leverage in future security negotiations.
Why Korea needs a multi-alignment strategy
Amid this dilemma, a multi-alignment strategy emerges as the only sustainable solution.
With President Yoon Suk-yeol now removed and the domestic political climate rapidly changing, South Korea is entering a new phase. Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, currently the frontrunner for the presidency, is unlikely to accept all of Washington ’s demands without recalibration. If pushed too far, relations between the two allies could face serious strain. In this evolving environment, a middle path – firm yet flexible – may be Korea’s best option.
Korea does not need to pick a side between the United States and China. It needs a smarter, more dynamic approach – one that prioritizes South Korean interests, mitigates risks, and enhances global credibility.
Multi-alignment offers precisely this. It allows Korea to cooperate with Washington in strategic areas like semiconductors, clean energy, and defense technologies – sectors where South Korea can gain from joint investment, research, and global market access. Simultaneously, it lets South Korea sustain strong trade and investment ties with China, avoiding unnecessary economic damage and ensuring the health of key industries.
A multi-alignment approach also opens the door to diversified diplomacy. South Korea can deepen its engagement with India, ASEAN, and the European Union while enhancing trilateral cooperation with China and Japan on vital areas such as climate change, logistics, and public health. Broadening partnerships with BRICS and Eurasian countries can further reduce dependence on any single power and unlock new economic opportunities.
Internally, South Korea must reinforce this strategy by investing in its domestic strengths – innovation, energy independence, and technological resilience. Building homegrown capabilities will give South Korea the freedom to navigate great-power rivalries without being constrained by external dependencies.
The era of uncritical alignment with Washington is over. Multi-alignment gives Korea multiple options – flexibility without fragmentation. It empowers Seoul to operate confidently in a fragmented world, defending its national interests while remaining an active and respected global player.
At this moment of crossroads, South Korea must choose wisely. Siding fully with one power risks long-term subordination. Refusing both invites isolation. The real answer lies in balance – a multi-alignment strategy that keeps Korea strong, sovereign, respected and prosperous.
This is not a moment to choose sides – it is a moment to shape outcomes. South Korea must rise to its full potential as a true pivotal state – not as a passive bystander in great-power rivalry, but as a confident architect of a new regional balance of power and a bridge-builder in an increasingly polarized world.