The Asian Development Bank predicted that the full implementation of US tariffs would cut the growth of developing Asia by almost a third of a percentage point this year and by nearly a full percentage point in 2026, according to a report released on Wednesday ( Apr 9 ).
In its report, the ADB predicted that developing Asia’s growth would ease slightly in 2025, which would be the slowest pace since 2022, and will slow even further, dropping to 4.7 % in 2026 from 5.0 % in 2024.  ,
The ADB stated at a press event for the report’s release that the projections were finalized before the US unveiled sweeping innovative import tariffs last year.  ,
The question that remains is whether the US taxes will be fully implemented, which would affect our forecast for growth, according to ADB key analyst Albert Park.
Along with excluding nations like Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, the ADB defines developing Asia when 46 Asia-Pacific nations that extend from Georgia to Samoa.
The final results of the US tariffs, according to Park, are still unsure, as their reach and timing may change as a result of negotiations, delays, or exemptions being granted.
” On the other hand, stronger retribution and further increase could have bigger effects,” he said.
Also, the length and frequency of legislation changes under the new US administration may reduce investment in the region and around the world, while rising trade tensions and separation would cause global supply chains to collapse.
The weaker baseline projections already reflect a projected slowdown in China, with growth forecasts for this year at 4.7 %, down from 5.0 % in 2024, and a further 4.3 % in 2026.  ,
Southeast Asia, which benefited from trade diversion during the US-China trade war of 2018, is expected to lose some steam as growth in the subregion is projected to grow at 4.7 % this year and next, down slightly from 4.8 % in 2024.
South Asia, according to the ADB, is a promising region, with strong domestic demand projected to drive growth of 6.8 % in 2025 and 6.2 % in 2026, up from the previous year’s 5.8 %, respectively.  ,  ,
A strong worldwide demand for electronics should support progress in developing Asia.  ,
Due to falling prices for global oil and other commodities, regional inflation is expected to ease to 2.3 % this year and 2.2 % next year, from 2.6 % in 2024. Given the expectation that the US Federal Reserve would maintain rates elevated for a longer period, the ADB said that this may allow central banks to continue economic easing.