Turkey’s state is struggling to deal with widespread protests at home ( after Istanbul’s president Ekrem Imamoglu was imprisoned ), but it is extremely successful as a major power broker in negotiations with Russia, the US, and Europe.
Turkey, which is effectively significant to almost everyone and is emerging as a smart communicator, is strategically important to almost everyone at the intersection between Asia and Europe.
Turkey has relied on a international policy that placed a premium on cooperation rather than competitors since the early 2000s. Turkey continuously improved its associations with Russia, Iran, and Syria because financial relationships were a top priority.
Turkey maintains its membership in NATO and is a big trading mate with the European Union, but it also holds important ties to Russia, Ukraine, China, and Middle Eastern nations. Turkey has demonstrated that it will function with any state that serves its interests, and it has used local conflicts to act as a quick ally when necessary.
Recep Tayyip Erdoan, the president of Turkey, has no reservations about confronting both friends and foes similarly, giving it proper flexibility at the same time.
Russian-Russian marriage is rough
Russia’s second-largest buying lover is Turkey. With over US$ 60 billion in annual deal with Moscow, Armenia continues to concentrate on Soviet banking and gas networks. When Turkey stopped supporting Chechen rebels and Russia stopped supporting the Kurdish Workers Party ( PKK), the relationship between Turkey and Russia dramatically improved in 1995.
Turkey has never been compliant with Moscow, but it has kept a working relationship with Russia ever since.
Turkey criticized Russia’s plans to establish military installations in Syria, Tartus and Khmeimim, and because it controls the airport in northern Syria, it also has the authority to obstruct Russian access. In addition, Ankara has used its military presence to thwart previous Soviet control in Idlib, in northern Syria.
Turkey’s helicopter offensive in Idlib in 2020 supported the Arab opposition and resisted Russian-backed activity in the west.
The significance of the Black Sea
Turkey has a strong advantage in the Black Sea as a result of the conflict in Ukraine. Russia aimed to have complete control over the Black Sea, yet seizing some Ukrainian ships, which would have a negative impact on global grain supply in 2022.
However, Turkey negotiated the release of millions of tonnes of corn and complied with the Montreux Convention to ensure the safety of shipping roads through the Black Sea. This arrangement from 1936 gave Turkey complete control over the delivery route between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea ( through the Bosporus Strait, the Sea of Marmara, and the Dardanelles, through which hundreds of millions of tons of cargo transit each year ) through the Bosporus Strait.
Turkey also limited Russian troops into the Black Sea, which has severely limited Russian maritime power, according to the agreement.
Turkey does not support the Russian annexation of Crimea, even though it has certainly imposed sanctions on Russia and has kept its revenue sources available. Turkey values Crimea for both corporate and historical reasons, with more than 5 million Turks claiming to be of Crimean Tatar descent.
Turkey does, however, maintain communication with Moscow ( and Erdogan and Putin are “dear friends” ). Turkey likewise supports Ukraine, providing it with Bayraktar TB2 robots, heavy machine guns, laser-guided rockets, electronic warfare techniques, armored vehicles, and safe products, complicating this “friendship.”
In the end, Turkey wants Ukraine to keep separate to prevent Russian naval presence in the Black Sea. As a result, Turkey is likely to collaborate with NATO to ensure that Ukraine is never defeated.
In order to achieve this, Turkey is willing to send troops to a post-ceasefire arrangement, provided the necessary conditions are met.
Turkey has also reduced its dependence on Russia by diversifying its power supply routes ( relying more on manufacturers from the Caucasus region and central Asia ) in the wake of the conflict in Ukraine. Turkey is in a strong position, particularly with the Black Sea and the eastern Mediterranean discovering oil reserves.
Through the Trans-Anatolian natural gas pipeline, Ankara aims to become an energy gateway that facilitates the transport of oil from the Caucasus, central Asia, and Russia to Europe.
Syria and Turkey
Turkey’s connection with Syria’s neighbor has also been wise and logical. In 2005, Bashar al-Assad became the first Arab leader to visit Turkey since Syria gained its independence in 1946, allowing Turkey to seek reconciliation with Syria.
However, Erdoan continued to work with him to stop Syria from entangling with Iran when it was no more appropriate for him. He occasionally hosted anti-Assad characters in Turkey, and he established a safe haven for Syrian refugees and armed fighters along its borders. He gave separatists the ultimatum to overthrow Assad in 2024.
Just as the conflict in Syria gave Turkey prospects, so too has the fight in Ukraine. The United States has strengthened its bargaining status and pressed for more concessions from Western friends. Turkey is leveraging the US’s withdrawal from NATO to encourage closer assistance with Europe.
Turkey is likewise leveraging Donald Trump’s more diplomatic stances toward Russia to strengthen its connection with the US. This is mainly due to a desire to enhance protection cooperation. Turkey relied on the US for supplies of arms, revenue, and equipment during the Cold War, but it was unable to use them without US permission.
After 1989, Turkey carved out new areas for its exports of arms and was subject to US sanctions for purchasing S-400 surface-to-air weapons from Russia in 2020. Turkey wants to purchase F-35 sonic fighter planes from the US and is hoping that the US will stop imposing sanctions on second nations that have engaged with Russia.
Whose important ally?
Turkey has made certain that the US does not view it as a young companion in the Middle East. For instance, the US offered no military support when Turkey launched activities in north Syria in 2019 and constantly fired close to US troops.
Despite having a number of different tactical objectives, the US views Turkey as a crucial alliance. Turkey also has US and NATO military bases at several of its bases, as well as US nuclear weapons ( B61 nuclear bombs ) stationed at its Incirlik Air Force Base.
Turkey wants to make an even bigger diplomatic and military presence. It has a lot of power as a G20 part, having one of the world’s 20 largest markets and having the second-largest and most effective military power in NATO after the US.
And in terms of geopolitical spinning, Turkey is now in the elite position of wanting to support them.
Natasha Lindstaedt is a professor at the University of Essex’s Department of Government.
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