This was supposed to be a time to enjoy the improvement in relations between South Korea and Japan. But, amid the tumult in South Korea– and across the sea in the United States – the fate of relations between South Korea and Japan is extremely questionable.
On a recent trip to Seoul, the roads of the country’s capital town were filled with rival groups of sincere demonstrators on weekends.
Rightwing followers of the dismissed President Yoon Suk Yeol, the majority of whom are elderly, waved Asian and American colors in the street leading from City Hall to the great Gyeongbokgung Palace. They happily wore red ball caps imitating the pro-Trump MAGA movement in the US.
Difficult crowds of mostly young people, many of them ladies, sang K-pop songs and marched across the Han River from the National Assembly tower in support of democracy and the attempted military law revolution.
These significant groups in South Korea won’t be resolved until the Korean Constitutional Court’s prosecution decision is made. But maybe it will place set the nation back on the road, through a new federal election, toward forming a authorities worthy of ruling the divided country.
This was not anticipated to occur. Twin hazards are a constant threat to Korea.
One one side, there is a nuclear-armed North Korea, strengthened by its defense alliance with Russia and the continued support of China.
A probably isolationist Trump regime in the US, which could withdraw the country’s armed forces and impose tariffs that would significantly harm the country’s trade-dependent economy, poses another threat.
Strategic lovers Korea and Japan?
The time 2025 includes goals that could have doubled as events for celebrating the improvement in relations that had been made under the liberal governments of President Yoon and past Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who left office in September 2024. This year also marks the 60th anniversary of the signing of the political convention, as well as the 80th anniversary of the end of the war, which Koreans celebrate as a sign of Japanese colonial rule.
Alternatively, Yoon is properly exonerated, imprisoned, and facing possible detention after his failed coup. Barring his doubtful returning to office if the court fails to defend impeachment, an election within two months seems poised to take to power the liberal Democratic Party, headed by nationalist politician Lee Jae-Myung.
The Democrats have been greatly critical of Yoon’s Japan plan and Lee personally has been an unrestrained official for those who believe Japan has failed to challenge the acts of its colonial rule.
A rollback in relations is predictable, according to former Korean ambassador to Japan, Shin Kak-soo, in Seoul, given Lee’s past history, his opinions, and his arguments against Korea-Japan relations.
A conservative former senior official with extensive experience in foreign affairs also said in a separate conversation that Lee would be “very adversarial” toward Japan. ” He may not rattle the boat but basically Lee Jae-myung has a negative approach to Japan. He is more critical of the US and more open about China.
That a little pessimistic prediction is readily apparent in Tokyo as well. But Lee’s close advisors point to his pragmatic, rather than ideological, character to suggest that he will not seek to reverse the progress that was made and will be supportive of the US security alliance.
Over breakfast in Seoul, Ambassador Cho Hyun, a former senior Foreign Ministry official who had a significant impact on shaping Korea-Japan relations under Moon Jae-in’s previous progressive government, laid this out.
” We will not change what has been agreed upon between Korea and Japan,” Cho said, while acknowledging that he had opposed the Peace Women agreement that Park Geun-hye and the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reached in 2015.
” Our relationship has two bookends. We both share enemies, a sense of threat, and are allies to the United States on one end. However, Japan denies doing it because it did so many horrible things at the other end. They fail to educate their young people. There is a sense of wounded nationalism on our part. Between these two bookends must diplomacy exist.
Cho and other progressive foreign policy advisors pointed to the failure of the Japanese government to reciprocate the unilateral decision of Yoon to create a fund to compensate the former forced laborers who worked in Japanese mines and factories during the wartime period. Cho and others suggest that Japanese businesses that employ the workers should now contribute to the fund with the support and encouragement of the Japanese government.
” Some people in the Minjudang]Democratic Party’s leadership are fully aware of what went wrong,” Cho said. ” They are willing to change their position. They would continue to support trilateral security cooperation and continue to make the unilateral announcement from Yoon regarding forced labor. I’m hoping that the Japanese government will permit businesses to contribute to the funding. I have been arguing to Japanese friends that they need to talk to progressives”.
Some experts on Japanese foreign policy agree with this cautious optimism. Hitoshi Tanaka, a former senior foreign ministry official who was a key figure in the outreach to North Korea under former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, addressed this issue to this writer in a recent interview.
” Even if the opposition takes power, we may still have a chance to preserve the improvement in relations”, Tanaka said. Because of its support for the military regimes in Korea, the Democrats oppose Japan and the US. However, the current situation naturally results in trilateral and Japan-Korea relations.
The Trump factor enters the picture
Due to the Trump factor, Korean thinking about Japan has also changed. Similar shock abhorrent effects were had by the American leader and the Ukrainian president in Seoul and Tokyo.
Korean discussion of the need to develop an independent nuclear capability has spread from the right – where such a move, long opposed by the US, has long been advocated – to the progressive camp.
“nuclear latency,” the new buzzword in Korean culture, allows the country to follow the Japanese in establishing a complete nuclear fuel cycle. In this way, South Korea could build a uranium enrichment facility or reprocess the waste fuel from its numerous nuclear power plants. A stockpile of fissile material would then allow South Korea to move toward nuclear weapons very quickly.
Korean officials continue to confidently assert their ability to make enough concessions to prevent the worst from occurring, just like their counterparts in Japan. They suggest that Korea can use the visit of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to Washington as a model.
Assemblyman Wi Sung-lac, who was the chief foreign policy advisor to Democratic party leader Lee in the last presidential election, believes the best they can hope for in the US is a non-confrontational meeting that, as happened during Ishiba’s Washington visit, at least reaffirms the alliance along the lines of previous statements with the Biden administration.
” The Japanese still believe they will try to deal with Trump just as Abe did”, Wi said in an interview in his National Assembly office. The joint statement has a preventative effect. We hope to have a similar document at the very least when [at the summit ] occurs. It won’t be easy creating personal rapport between the two leaders, but we are going to try that. If we don’t succeed, Japan, Korea, and Europe will have to consider this.
Some Koreans see Ishiba as a particularly good potential partner, given his greater willingness to deal with history issues and his support for improved relations with China and other Asian nations.
Kim Joon-hyung, a progressive member of the National Assembly and former senior Foreign Ministry official, says that” Ishiba is really interested in trilateral relations – China, Japan, and Korea.” He “is ready to talk to China,” he said. I wish Ishiba survives longer”.
There is even talk of forging a strategic relationship with Japan in some Seoul circles to balance, if not counteract, a Trump-led US.
We had to deal with a rising China, according to Wi, a former senior foreign ministry official who recently won the election to the National Assembly.” Under the Biden administration, we had some reason to work together on a trilateral basis.” ” That issue remains but now we have under the Trump administration new uncertainties and unpredictability that affect trade and bilateral relations and could affect both Japan and Korea”.
One idea that is being quietly discussed in Seoul is how to counteract Trump’s tariff and trade disputes using the CPTPP expansion ( the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership ). Korea’s membership application could be accelerated and even racked up by ties to the EU.
It may, however, be premature to talk of an anti-Trump alliance, some say.
According to Wi, who is likely to play a significant role in a presidential election if Lee wins,” I’m not sure Seoul and Tokyo policy makers have the incentive to work together.” Some Europeans, such as French President Emmanuel Macron, or the Germans may attempt to introduce this kind of concept with Asian nations. But Asian responses to that will be careful”.
However, Trump himself may be completely offended by this caution as he continues to devastate the postwar international system.
Daniel Sneider teaches at Stanford on international policy. This article was originally publilshed by The Oriental Economist ( Toyo Keizai ). With your kind permission, it can be republished.