The Ferdinand Marcos Jr administration’s congressional election pattern in trouble, with one focus on the Dutertes on the one hand and their perceived supporters in Beijing on the other.
Almost two-thirds of the Philippine House of Representatives, which is generally supportive of the leader, overwhelmingly voted to remove Vice President Sara Duterte on the grounds of alleged fraud and abuse of power, not the least of which was a veiled threat to assassinate Marcos Jr.
With unusually aggressive language, Marcos Jr. fought the Dutertes in a cudgel-skating match. Marcos Jr launched a side attack on Rodrigo Duterte and the candidates from his clan during a subsequent campaign trip to his home province of Ilocos Norte, where he accompanied the government’s votes and important regional authorities bets.
” None of]my preferred candidates ] are accomplices in pocketing sacks of money, exploiting the pandemic crisis and letting our countrymen get sick and die”, he declared, referring to the Duterte administration’s alleged abysmal handling of and numerous corruption scandals during the Covid-19 pandemic.
” No one of them acts like the follower of a false prophet who has ruined our children and girls.” He continued, referring to Pastor Apollo Quiboloy, an ex-Duterte ally detained on charges of sex and human trafficking, as well as the proliferation of dodgy online Chinese casinos during the previous Rodrigo Duterte administration. None of them defended the POGOS [ Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators ] as the hotbeds of crime and sexual harassment against women.
The president of the Philippines has also raised the stakes by convincingly defending his Duterte-aligned foes as Foreign puppets while highlighting his relatively uncompromising attitude on the South China Sea issues.
” None of them claps for China and is even delighted whenever we are being ocean cannoned, our Coast Guard rammed, fishing blocked, their takes stolen and our territories retaken as their own territory”, he declared, referring to the Duterte generation’s soft-pedaling on China’s violent behavior in the contested waters.  ,
Marcos Jr.’s harsh speech coincides with a comprehensive crackdown on alleged Foreign effect in the Philippines. While the Asian legislature has held hearings subpoenaing suspected pro-China propagandists, the Asian intelligence and security authorities have apprehended different Chinese nationals reportedly involved in spying activities over the past month.
Individuals who support Beijing, such as Ronald Dela Rosa, the former president’s police commander, who has instantly and quickly taken a tougher stance on the South China Sea problems, have also been receiving more public support.
Marcos Jr., who grew to the point of being elected, has consistently taken a firm position on China while doubling down on strengthened security ties with Western partners, including US ally in the joint defense treaty.
He has even reversed another significant Duterte plan legacycies, including the terrible “drug war,” which claimed the lives of tens of thousands of alleged drug traffickers in extrajudicial killings.
In reaction, the ex-president broke with convention and, since last year, has successfully called for the departure of his son in favor of his princess, Vice President Sara Duterte. In his latest explosion, Duterte repeatedly accused Marcos Jr of being a “heroin addiction” without providing information.
The former leader also openly criticized the Senate, the lower chamber tasked with carrying out impeachment trials, for his daughter’s current possible impeachment, as well as for “killing” more than a dozen senators to make way for his favorite candidates.
Recent polls constantly indicate that Marco Jr.’s preferred bettors have a disproportionate advantage over the so-called “magic 12” of possible winners.
Although the Dutertes remain common on their house island of Mindanao and also appreciate the support of key religious groups, they’ve met their match in the Marcos Jr government’s well-oiled technology. And they have a chance of losing in the polls as a result of accusations that they act as Beijing’s proxies in the face of growing anti-China sentiment in the Philippines.
The Marcos Jr. administration announced earlier this year that it had removed the Dutertes from the National Security Council, where both the vice president and the ex-president are typically either ex-officio or executive members. Now, pro-Duterte candidates are also feeling the China-related heat.
“I’ll be frank with you. I am willing to kill myself in the]South China Sea] if they say I am pro-China. In a recent press conference, re-election supporter Senator Ronald dela Rosa declared to reporters that he was ready to start a war in the West Philippine Sea.
” Pro-China? I challenge them, if they want, I will give them a gun and maybe we will attack the bullies in the West Philippine Sea”, he added, somewhat obscurely.
What was once viewed as a vengeful alliance between the Philippines ‘ two most powerful political dynasties has gradually turned into a verbal war. The Marcos Jr administration has increased efforts to combat the Chinese influence that seized the nation during Duterte and was encouraged by Washington and other important allies.
Five Chinese nationals were detained last month after Philippine authorities announced their arrest, five of whom are suspected of espionage. The five suspects were allegedly using allegedly sensitive video footage through drones and military-grade cameras posing as civilian security closed-circuit TVs (CCTVs ) in accordance with the Philippine National Bureau of Investigation ( NBI ).
Days earlier, a Chinese national, along with two local accomplices, were caught in a vehicle carrying surveillance equipment while roaming sensitive military facilities. Philippine security officials assert that the alleged spies were releasing images of Philippine air and naval bases in real-time, as well as information on strategic locations.
Additionally, they were accused of keeping track of Philippine warships ‘ movements while conducting resupply missions in contentious South China Sea regions.
Top Philippine security officials believe that the recent arrests are just the tip of the iceberg of upcoming suppression operations, which speaks to Manila’s concern over recent infiltration of Chinese agents and their related assets.
In a recent interview with The Japan Times, National Security Council assistant director General Jonathan Malaya said,” Most people only think of Chinese activities out at sea, but information and psychological warfare have also become a part of their malign influence.”
The Chinese Communist Party’s United Front Work Department, meanwhile, has allegedly been actively weaponizing its influence among sympathetic groups, including Chinese-Filipino business groups that are dependent on imports from and access to Chinese markets.
According to Malaya, they have significantly increased their actions since February 2023 when the Philippine government began a policy to expose and bring light to what is happening in the West Philippine Sea. They have done this because the Philippines ‘” Transparency Initiative” aimed to expose China’s aggression in disputed waters.
Meanwhile, the proliferation of Beijing-backed troll farms and propagandists who have been actively spreading pro-China narratives that frequently discredit the incumbent government is a major source of concern for a liberal democracy like the Philippines.
A recent AidData study showed that as many as 10, 000 fake accounts were run by China-based elements. According to the findings, Beijing has engaged in a two-pronged strategy that aims to stoke political unrest in the Philippines while undermining a coordinated national response to the disputes in the South China Sea.
” China is not engaging in all these media cooperation and development finance]projects ] in a vacuum. It’s happening alongside very visible disputes in the South China Sea”, Samantha Custer, director at AidData, told reporters following the release of their 51-page study in September.
” Less direct is the proliferation of online troll farms and other fake accounts that]Beijing ] can use to spread mis- or disinformation to foreign publics, along with partnerships with social media influencers”, the study argued.
In response, Philippine authorities are now urging changes to the country’s outdated espionage and treason laws to address growing threats and the increasingly hybrid nature of warfare in the twenty-first century.
The Philippines is also doubling down on intelligence-sharing with key allies, especially the US and Japan, to crack down on Chinese malign influence operations. High-stakes elections have for the first time in Philippine history been the result of intensified proxy wars between powerful countries supporting competing political dynasties.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Rich Heydarian