Trump sows uncertainty – and Xi Jinping sees an opportunity

China is hiding its anger with the United States by imposing an additional 10 % tax on all of its products.

Both Canada and Mexico have pledged to retaliate, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has already announced a 25 % levy on more than$ 100 billion ( £81 billion ) of American goods.

After reaching separate agreements with each of their leaders, US President Donald Trump has agreed to temporarily halt tariffs of 25 % on imported goods from both nations.

Beijing, however, has held its fireplace – for now.

Beijing declared that it was” not scared of a business combat” in 2018, when Trump introduced the first of many rounds of tariffs on Chinese imports. This day, it urged the US to speak and “meet China halfway”.

This doesn’t mean the news won’t be stingy. It will, mainly because the 10 % tax is an addition to the numerous tariffs he imposed on tens of billions of dollars of goods in his first name.

And the Taiwanese government’s subdued comment is primarily because it doesn’t want to fear its inhabitants, when many are now concerned about the sluggish economy.

However, that country’s business is no longer as dependent on the US. Beijing has strengthened its business agreements with countries in South America, South America, and South East Asia. It is now the largest trading partner of more than 120 places.

According to Chong Ja Ian from Carnegie China, the more 10 % may not provide the liquidity Trump wants.

” China may believe that it can possibly withstand 10 %- therefore, I think Beijing is playing it awesome. Because if it’s not that big a deal, there’s no reason to get a duel with the Trump administration unless there’s a real advantage to Beijing”.

President Xi Jinping may have another motivation, as well: he might discover a chance here.

Trump is causing section in his own garden by threatening to impose tariffs on everyone in the EU, all in his first week. His behavior may leave another US supporters wondering what lies ahead for them.

In comparison, China will want to seem a quiet, steady and perhaps more interesting global trade partner.

” Trump’s America-first plan will bring challenges and risks to nearly all countries in the world”, says Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Centre.

A disintegration of US leadership and credibility does gain China, according to the US-China strategic competition perspective. Beijing may undoubtedly try to make lemonade, but it’s doubtful that things will go well for China on the intergovernmental level.”

As a leader of the world’s second-largest economy, Xi has made no secret of his ambition for China to lead an alternative world order.

He has traveled extensively since the Covid pandemic’s end, and he has supported significant international organizations like the World Bank and contracts like the Paris environment accords.

This is seen in Chinese state media as welcoming nations from all over the globe and fostering closer relationships with them.

Before that, when Trump halted US funding to the WHO in 2020, China pledged additional funds. Expectations are high that Beijing may step in to fill America’s shoes again, following Washington’s exit from the WHO.

China may wish to bridge the gap despite the economic downturn, which is causing for chaos in some nations and organizations that have long relied on US funding.

On his first day back in office, Trump froze all foreign assistance provided by the US, which is by far the world’s biggest aid donor. Hundreds of foreign aid programmes delivered by USAID ground to a halt. Some have since restarted, but aid contractors describe ongoing chaos as the future of the agency hangs in the balance.

John Delury, a scholar of modern China and Professor at Yonsei University in Seoul, says Trump’s ‘ America First ‘ philosophy was more weaken Washington’s status as a world head.

The mixture of taxes on big business partners and the melting of foreign aid sends a text to the Global South and the OECD that the US is not engaged in international cooperation, he tells the BBC.

As America retreats from the world, President Xi’s unwavering message of “win-win” globalization takes on a whole new meaning.

Beijing has been looking for a chance to upend the American-led world order of the past 50 years in its bid for global governance, and Trump 2.0’s uncertainty may just be one of them.

Mr. Chong says,” I’m a little less certain about whether it really gives Beijing a key advantage… of that.

” Many US allies and partners, especially in the Pacific, have a reason to work with Beijing, but they also have reasons to be wary. That’s why we’ve seen Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia move closer together, in part because of the apprehensions they harbour towards China”.

There is “gathering momentum” for a possible trilateral relationship among Australia, Japan and South Korea, motivated by” the impact of a second Trump administration”, according to The Australian Institute of International Affairs.

All three are concerned about China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea, along with the Philippines. They are also concerned about a potential conflict over Taiwan, which Beijing views as a breakaway province that will eventually be a part of the nation.

Taiwan has long been one of the most contentious issues in US-China relations, with Beijing decrying any alleged Taipei support from Washington.

Washington may find it challenging to respond to indications of Chinese aggression when Trump repeatedly threatens to buy or annex Canada.

The majority of the nations in the area have negotiated an economic balance with China through a military alliance with Washington.

But now, wary of Beijing and usure of the US, they could create new Asian alliances, with neither of the world’s biggest powers.

Trump made the tariff announcement over the weekend as Chinese families drew inspiration from the God of Fortune to celebrate the new year.

As most workers leave for their hometowns during the biggest holiday of the year, bright red lanterns are currently glinting over deserted Beijing streets.

China’s response has been far more muted than Canada or Mexico’s. The Commerce Ministry announced its intention to file a lawsuit and use the World Trade Organization to lodge grievances.

But this poses little threat to Washington. Since Donald Trump- in his first term at the WTO- blocked the appointment of judges to handle appeals, the dispute settlement system has effectively been shut down.

As the holiday season draws to a close and party officials go back to Beijing to do their work, they must make decisions.

After the two leaders had what Mr. Trump called” a great phone call,” the Trump administration may want to keep the relationship stable in recent weeks have encouraged officials.

China is remaining calm for the time being, perhaps in the hopes of striking a deal with Washington to stop further tariffs and stop the world’s two largest economies from becoming too dependent.

Some people think this won’t last because both Republicans and Democrats now see China as the nation’s greatest threat to both foreign policy and economic growth.

” Mr Trump’s unpredictability, his impulsiveness and recklessness will inevitably lead to significant shocks in the bilateral relationship”, says Wu Xinbo, professor and director at the Centre for American Studies at Fudan University.

” Additionally, his team contains quite a few hawks, even extreme hawks on China. Over the next four years, the bilateral relationship will unavoidably experience significant disruption.

China is undoubtedly concerned about its relationship with the US and the harm a trade war might cause to its sluggish economy.

It will also be looking for ways to influence the world both externally and internally using the current political pendulum.