What might seem like the end of the last vestiges of European colonization in the Indian Ocean region could well be the start of growing tension between the United States, India, and China.
The British Indian Ocean Territory, which once belonged to Mauritius, will now become a part of the United Kingdom and Mauritius as a result of an agreement reached next October.
Navin Ramgoolam, the newly elected Mauritius government, ordered a review of the contract a month after because it did not provide enough compensation for the island’s unique inhabitants who had been forced to flee.
The Chagos Archipelago’s seven islands split from Mauritius in 1965, and Diego Garcia, the largest of them, was leased to the United States to building a significant, covert military center in the Indian Ocean.
However, the transfer is certain to occur, and it is already thought to be possible to convert the sun-soaked archipelago into a holiday destination similar to the Maldives, which is located about 500 kilometers away.
It’s possible to construct lavish hotels that will draw in high-spending travelers from all over the world. Diving, searching and so-called “eco-friendly” actions are already being touted on life sites referring to the Chagos Archipelago as a “new Island”.
But here lies the geostrategic issue. The UK has pledged to support Mauritius financially in order to build the islands, including a partnership to develop desperately needed infrastructure.
But, because Mauritius is a sovereign nation, it is difficult to think that China will not attempt to finance its own projects on the island, not just because Beijing wants to make the islands an appealing place for Chinese visitors.
That is exactly what has happened in the Island, where Chinese tourists are at the top of tourist arrivals names. China has made significant investments in developing facilities, including a bridge that connects the territories of Hulhule and Hulhumale with Male, the country’s capital. That building has sown political sway, which worries India, the Maldives ‘ traditional development companion and strategic alliance, for the long-term.
Because it lies along the ocean corridors through which its imported oil from the Persian Gulf walks, the Island is carefully essential to China.
With relatively innocent purchase projects, China would have a unique opportunity to observe US defense activities at Diego Garcia.
Diego Garcia would be very important in America’s security of its passions in the Indian Ocean and beyond in the event of a future fight, including a potential military conflict between the United States and China.
China, on the other hand, is , rapidly expanding its political and economic, and thus also proper, effect in the Indian Ocean at the cost of the United States and India. And that is why alarms bells are ringing in Washington.  ,
Republican US lawmakers criticized the American authorities for ceding control of the Chagos Archipelago after the deal was announced in October, warning that it would be” a revolution for Chinese interests.”
Rep. Michael McCaul, a member from Texas, and Idaho Senator James Risch, a senior part of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, were two of the people who spoke with them. These problems may become more vocal among the numerous well-known China eagles in his Cabinet as Republican Donald Trump approaches the White House.
According to the preliminary Britain-Mauritius agreement, the United States may keep control of Diego Garcia for 99 decades after the transfer.
However, there are already some parallels between Britain’s 1997 transfer agreement with China on Hong Kong, where Beijing pledged to uphold the rule of “one country, two systems” for 50 years before breaking the deal by enraging the once independent English town under its autocratic rule.
To be sure, Mauritius is not China. More than half of the island republic’s population is a product of indentured laborers hired by the British during the colonial era to work on sugar plantations, so relations with India have always been friendly.
Fast forward to the present, as China’s influence expands in the Indian Ocean and Beijing can be seen clearly as a gateway to Africa, where its Belt and Road Initiative and various deals involving the extraction of various natural resources are growing.
Xi Jinping, the president of China, traveled to Mauritius in 2018. At a , grand ceremony held in Xi ‘s , honor, the Chinese leader said that , he looked , forward to exchanging views , with Mauritius “on bilateral relations and on international and regional issues of mutual concern”.
The first African nation to sign a free trade agreement with China, which was signed in January 2021, was a year later, and it has since had a significant impact on China.
According to , the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade,  , Mauritius’ , imports from China , totaled , US$ 993 million in , 2023,  , while , its exports to China, despite annual increases,  , amounted to , a , mere ,$ 26.32 million.  , China has also invested liberally in Mauritian finance, real estate, manufacturing and tourism.
That implies that Mauritius is becoming more and more diplomatically and economically connected to China, making it more profitable and diplomatically.
Outside powers have long sought after the Chagos Archipelago. When Maldivian and European seafarers visited the islands more than 500 years ago, it was uninhabited. The French brought in slaves from its possessions in the area and established coconut plantations on the larger islands.
In 1815, the British took control of the archipelago from Mauritius, the country’s former British colony. The British abolished slavery in 1840, but the coconut plantations remained. Prior to 1965, when Britain purchased the archipelago from Mauritius, the then-self-governing colony, nothing notable happened there.
Three years later, Mauritius was granted full independence from Britain, but with a significant caveat: The British insisted that it would not be able to secede from its territories. It eventually became known as the” British Indian Ocean Territory,” and it became clear why London pressed for the separation.
The agreement between Britain and the United States to convert Diego Garcia, the archipelago’s main island, into a formidable military base would leave the colonial state and give the country a lease on the land. At the same time, the entire population of the archipelago, then consisting of some 1, 000 people, was forcibly evicted and sent to Mauritius and the Seychelles.
Diego Garcia’s strategic location was obvious. It oversees vital shipping lines across the Indian Ocean and gives the US and UK access to East Africa, the Middle East, South and Southeast Asia in the event of war or another emergency.
Diego Garcia’s development was also in line with a brand-new US policy known as the” Strategic Islands Concept,” which prohibited military bases from being established close to the populous mainland areas where they could be exposed to anti-Western and anti-American opposition.
Diego Garcia was used to support US-led combat operations in Afghanistan and played an important role as a logistics base in both Gulf Wars in 1990 and 2003. More incontrovertibly, terrorist suspects who had been apprehended in Afghanistan and other locations were sent to Diego Garcia for a far-away “extraordinary rendition” ( extraordinary rendition ) treatment.
The original inhabitants of the archipelago, known as the Chagossians, have for years fought for the right to return home. These demands were repeatedly rejected by the British government.
However, an advisory from the International Court of Justice recommended returning the entire British Indian Ocean Territory to Mauritius in 2019. The Chagossians, now in second and third generations since their removal from the islands, are reputedly over 10, 000 in number.
The main issue is how Mauritius will govern the archipelago once it joins its republic, and how it will maintain a balance between its relations with China, the United States, and other Indian Ocean powers. Washington is concerned about Chinese expansion into the strategic and increasingly contentious maritime region, not just Washington.
India has always viewed the Indian Ocean as “its lake,” which is struggling to maintain good relations with the occasionally antagonistic Maldives and increasingly unpredictable Mauritius.
Anything can happen if the British leave their final possession “east of Suez,” as the saying goes. However, it would seem naive to assume that China will not attempt to influence the future of the Chagos Archipelago with its growing geostrategic interests in the Indian Ocean.
Bertil Lintner is a Thailand-based journalist, author and security analyst. His most recent book is” The Golden Land Ablaze: Coups, Insurgents and the State in Myanmar”, which can be purchased on Amazon here.