Western Asia is currently experiencing a geological move. The region’s leading Muslim powers of the moment, Turkey and Iran, will lose 30 % to 40 % of their working-age population during the 21st century due to plunging fertility.  ,
However, the Central Asian republics—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan—will dwarf Iran and Turkey in sheer people length.
Another Turkish state, Azerbaijan, is included with the five Central Asian nations in the table above. Except for the Tajiks, who speak a slang of Persian, the rest of Central Asia is Turkic.
There has been a lot of discussion about the impact of declining birth rates on the global market, but not much has been written about the growing population in investible parts.
Africa, where the majority of the world’s population will increase this era, faces challenges in creating an educated workforce. Pakistan is also growing, but with 50 % useful poverty and political instability, its socioeconomic potential is limited.
China, which needs to import money to nations with younger communities, is of particular interest because of the growing community in Central Asia. Additionally, it provides Europe with a business with potential for long-term development.
Germany, with its 3 million native Turks, is looking East for businesses. The Organization of Turkic States ‘ annual conference meeting took place this week in Kyrgyzstan, Hungary being the only European part.
Prime Minister Viktor Orban was awarded the Supreme Order of the Turkic World, the firm’s highest respect. ” We are the northernmost people of the East”, the Hungarian prime minister commented.
The projections on the charts are straight, to be sure, and they almost certainly are because the poor Central Asian nations are likely to repeat the fertility reduction of their neighbors. The dark line in the following chart’s hill is likely to be flatter.
But the major developments are baked in the cake, so to speak.
According to my examination from August 2024, the lower reproduction rates in Turkey and Iran are the result of the cultural shock experienced by adult education. Central Asian ovulation levels will gradually decline over time.
China and Russia are also aware of the profound strategic implications of changing demographics, but the West is essentially ignorant of them.
If Afghanistan, with its reproduction rate of nearly five babies per woman, were reckoned into the Central Asian full, the amount had increase. With a fertility rate of five babies per woman, Afghanistan remains locked into pre-modern problems.
If we include the UN projections for Afghanistan’s working-age people at regular fertility, the result is impressive: The five Central Asian republics, Azerbaijan and Afghanistan up will have a people aged 20 to 64 of 280 million, dwarfing the combined total for Turkey and Afghanistan. Afghanistan stock a border with Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan.
Safety issues after America’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 add a sense of necessity to China’s and Russia’s emphasis on Central Asia.
Except for Kazakhstan, a middle-income state with a per capita GDP of around US$ 15, 000, the Central Asian states are bad. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan boundary on China’s Xinjiang province.
In addition to more than 10 million Tamils, who speak a Turkic slang, Xinjiang is home to almost 2 million Kazakhs and 200, 000 Kyrgyz. Therefore, Xinjiang experiences any volatility in Central Asia.
The Belt and Road Initiative politics in the area has been very successful. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the two largest states, voted against a 2022 decision at the United Nations Human Rights Council condemning China’s care of its Uyghur population.
” Xi visited both of these larger Central Asian nations in September during the SCO summit to receive their prefer,” Xi said. Xi, during his first overseas visit after Covid-19, signed a new ,$ 4.1 billion  , rail deal with Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan”, complained the Observer Research Foundation, referring to China’s leader.
The Group of 20 proposed an” India-Middle East-Europe Corridor” at its 2022 conference in New Delhi, with road lines to the Mediterranean ending in Israel. That has been put on hold for the duration due to the war in Gaza and Lebanon.
Turkey objects to IMEC because it plays a significant part in trade between Europe and Asia. The future of the Slavic peoples is more centered in northern Asia than Anatolia, so the issue extends far beyond transportation.
Writing in China’s English-language paper Global Times last June, a former prime minister of Kyrgyzstan, Djoomart Otorbaev, hailed the fresh China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway job as” a gigantic game-changer”. The railroad will be the most difficult architectural project of its kind always.
” The total length of bridges and tunnels will be 146.49 km, or 47 % of the entire Kyrgyzstani section.” The rail will move at altitudes above 3, 000 meters in some sections, showcasing the ambitious site’s enormous size and intricacy”, Otorbaev noted.
He added,” The new rail lines will cross in Central Asia with prepared and under-construction north-south rail lines from Russia and Central Asia, passing through Afghanistan, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, and Iran to approach the deep-sea ships of the Indian Ocean. The plan could make Central Asia a unique transportation hub for the entire Eurasian continent once it is fully implemented.
China has little to worry about Xinjiang’s unrest because it has Turkey and the Central Asian republics by its side. By constructing infrastructure throughout Central Asia, China has shaped Turkey’s future economic and demographically.
And by stabilizing what might otherwise be a belt of unrest, China has also reduced one of Russia’s greatest threats. In a region of the world where the two powers have long battled for power, this reacquaints them with China and Russia.
Follow David P Goldman on X at @davidpgoldman