According to Chinese media reports, the outcome of this Tuesday’s US national election will determine whether Washington’s scheme on China continues as it has always done under a Kamala Harris administration or careens in new, unfamiliar directions under a Donald Trump 2.0 management.
Foreign observers and pundits are of the general consensus that Harris would be more predictable because her Democratic Party is more influenced by worldview and policy consistency. Trump is viewed as unexpected, but many people think he might be more willing to negotiate if a deal would deliver real financial benefits for the US in line with his” America First” perspective.
” If Harris is elected, she will usually continue the Biden administration’s China strategy”, Shiu Sin-por, chairman of the New Paradigm Foundation Company Limited, a pro-Beijing think container established in 2007, said in an article published on October 31. ” Even if there is any revision, the scale will remain limited. The upcoming trend of Sino-US ties may be clear”.
Democrats and Republicans, according to him, are more interested in philosophy and think that China’s increase will continue to challenge the values of the US and the West’s current world order, but both Democrats and Republicans view China as the country’s best adversary.  ,
Shiu claims that if Harris wins, the US will continue to work to thwart the expansion of China’s military and high-tech companies and other key economic sectors.
” But if Trump wins, the changes in the United States ‘ China policy may become greater and harder to predict”, he says. Trump will likely employ some effective means of attracting foreign corporations to the US, including taxes and reward programs.
It is less good that China and the Harris leadership will agree on something, according to China’s view. Trump is a very wise merchant who is willing to negotiate with China, according to Shiu. ” Of course, We should not reject Trump’s volatile, weak-principled and extreme heroes”.
According to Shiu, US relations with the EU, Japan, and Taiwan may even change if Trump wins, when Trump wants friends to support his” Make America Great Again” approach to reindustrialize the US.  ,
60 % taxes loom large ,
Trump started a trade war with China in 2018 by imposing a 25 % tax on a range of Chinese products. Beijing had previously believed that Washington would halt the taxes and de-escalate the tech war in the name of improved diplomatic relations after US President Joe Biden took office in January 2021.
However, the Biden administration increased both by enacting new export control laws to stop China from importing expensive chips and chip-making equipment from the US and by imposing new tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles ( EVs ). Additionally, it persuaded the Union to even impose tariffs on Chinese EVs and continued to sell weapons to Taiwan.  ,
Some Chinese experts predict that under Trump, who has pledged to establish a 60 % tax on all imported Chinese goods, a novel, contentious round of trade war may erupt. Some experts did point out that China might not be the main target of the fresh taxes.  ,  ,
China has previously conducted a thorough analysis and is considering the formation of the BRICS payment method to lessen the negative effects of the US involvement price cut, according to a Shanxi-based columnist’s article on November 2 under the heading” If Trump wins, who will be the biggest sufferer”?
” De-financialization” is China’s national policy to reduce embracing activities and asset bubbles in the country. ” If Trump takes office, the US will prevent aiding Ukraine while the Russia-Ukraine war did not maintain”, he says. Russia will get from this and become more recognized internationally.
He anticipates that a Trump 2.0 management” could start a trade war with the EU, deter National investment in India, and compel allies like South Korea and Japan to make more of a contribution to the US’s defense strategy in Asia.”
If Trump re-enters the White House, the country’s pattern may undergo significant changes. But this may not be a negative thing, as long as we are well-prepared”, the Chinese blogger writes.  ,
Fundamental problems
Other experts speculate that Harris and Trump may have completely different strategies for resolving upcoming US-China problems.
On the outside of a conference in Shenzhen on October 13th, Cheng Li, the founding chairman of the Centre on Contemporary China and the World at the University of Hong Kong, told the media that “if Harris is elected, the US’s China procedures will be comparatively more repetitive,” while maintaining that position.
If Trump wins, Sino-US relationships will become more uncertain, Li predicted, because he typically makes decisions based on business benefits and specific interactions with state leaders.  ,
Li, a student of former and now-deceased US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, made an assessment based on his observation that the two countries ‘ national powers are at odds with one another, which he described as unheard of in contemporary geopolitics.
He said the two countries ‘ architectural problems, caused by their differences in social networks, economic concepts and beliefs, will remain for years to come. He urged both nations to know that neither side could defeat humanity without wreaking havoc.
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