On Monday, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ) conducted the Joint Sword-2024B Exercise near Taiwan with a strong emphasis on preventing the United States from engaging in any potential combat in the Taiwan Strait.  ,
The PLA’s Eastern Theater Command announced on Monday that it had deployed the Liaoning aircraft carrier group to carry out exercises with its army, navy, air power, and jet force troops in the area of vessel-aircraft collaboration, mutual air manage, and strikes on targets on sea and land in the waters and airspace south of Taiwan.
According to Li Xi, a spokesperson for the Eastern Theater Command,” the drills aim to test the mutual fight capabilities of several services in built-in operations inside and outside the island chain.”
He added that the drills, which are conducted in the Taiwan Strait and the northeast, west, and south of Taiwan, are effective deterrents to rebel activities by” Taiwan independence” factions, and are necessary and reasonable actions to protect national sovereignty and unity.  ,
As of 4: 30 am, the Chinese government said the PLA had deployed a document full of 125 plane, 17 warships and 17 coastline guard vessels in its exercise on Monday.
Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense reported that its military forces are on high alert and occupying positions at sea and in the heat in response to China’s “irrational and controversial behavior.”
The drills came after Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te claimed in a speech on the occasion of Taiwan’s National Day that China has no right to represent Taiwan because the People’s Republic of China ( ROC ) has a 113-year history while the People’s Republic of China ( PRC ) is only 75 years old.
According to Matthew Miller, a spokeswoman for the US Department of State, the Army joint military drills in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding Taiwan are really concerning for the US.  ,
He claimed that the PRC’s response to Lai’s daily annual speech with military provocations is risking further escalation.  ,
We urge the PRC to exercise restraint and refrain from more actions that might impair regional peace and stability, which are crucial to regional prosperity and prosperity, and are of particular concern, he added. We continue to monitor PRC activities and integrate with allies and partners regarding our shared problems.
China’s president’s call to “cease military threats that undermine local peace and stability and prevent threatening Taiwan’s democracy and freedom.”
‘ Area rejection ‘ capability ,
Following Lai’s opening statement on May 20, the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command held the Joint Sword-2024A practice on May 23 through 25. Beijing stated at the time that more workouts may be conducted later this year.  ,
Foreign columnists claimed that the PLA’s most recent drills are a significant step in the direction of Taiwan’s and island China’s reconciliation.  ,
In an essay published by Guancha.cn on Monday, Shen Yi, a teacher at the Fudan University of International Communication, says,” China wants to build mutual fight capabilities that may suit those of the US, which has an enormous advantage in its navy and air forces.”  ,
According to him,” Today’s Taiwan issue is a result of the previous incidents where aircraft, cruisers, and destroyers of the United States ‘ 7th Fleet had transited the Taiwan Strait.”  ,
” The blockade of key Taiwanese ports is a newly-added mission in the Joint Sword 2024B exercise”, he said. ” An over 10, 000-ton coast guard ship, accompanied by four coast guard formations, was deployed. It has a larger tonnage than the US Navy’s Ticonderoga-class cruiser and Arleigh Burke-class shield destroyer”.
China’s large coast guard ship refers to a vessel with the hull number 2901, which has a nickname “monster ship” due to its displacement of 12, 000 tons. For comparison, a Ticonderoga-class cruiser has a full load displacement of 9, 600 tons while an Arleigh Burke-class shield destroyer has 8, 300 to 9, 700 tons.  ,
Shen claimed that the most recent military exercises and the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean on September 25 have sent a clear message to the US that China is developing an “area denial” capability that the US can no longer combat. He claimed that it is only a matter of time before the American military would acknowledge this.
Three scenarios ,
There are three scenarios where the PLA might blockade Taiwan, according to a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS), which is based in Washington.
- All-out kinetic blockade: In seven days of joint live-fire exercises around Taiwan, the PLA will block entrances to key Taiwanese ports and attack the island’s energy import terminals, power grid and transportation infrastructure. It will also cut the island’s undersea internet cables and launch cyberattacks. Till Taiwan is ready to negotiate, it will use anti-ship and anti-aircraft cruise missile batteries to impose the blockade.  ,
- Mining blockade: It is a scaled-down version of the all-out kinetic blockade. A dozen ballistic missiles will be fired over and around Taiwan by the PLA just to intimidate Taiwan and international shipping companies and deter other nations from acting. At the entrances of Taiwan’s major ports, Chinese submarines will deploy sea mines. To blockade crucial ports, Chinese forces will be deployed. They only start firing if they are attacked.  ,
- Limited blockade: It is largely consistent with the second scenario but lacks mining.  ,
According to CSIS, the total kinetic blockade is thought to be China’s most likely strategy, as the other two would expose the PLA to Taiwan’s escalation or US intervention.  ,
Wang Shichun, a Chinese columnist, notes in an article on Monday that
China has for the first time started an exercise that aims to blockade Taiwan’s key ports and regions. By doing this, we can board, inspect, and seize the ships that transport US weapons to Taiwan, and stop other nations from bringing oil and natural gas to the island.  ,
Wang claims that the Taiwanese government has been advocating that a week of resistance to the PLA’s attacks would allow for international powers to join the conflict. But he says the US wo n’t be able to break the Chinese blockade.  ,
According to the CSIS report,” the extent to which Washington and its allies intervene will determine the success or failure of a Chinese blockade” However, I want to point out that foreign interventions wo n’t be possible because the initiative currently belongs to our army.
In a Monday media briefing, Mao Ning, a representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, presented the official view:
If the US truly cares about peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and regional prosperity, it needs to abide by the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiqués, act on its leaders ‘ commitment of not supporting’ Taiwan independence,’ stop arming Taiwan and stop sending wrong signals to the” Taiwan independence” separatist forces.
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