Malaysia’s ASEAN chairmanship in 2025 could test bloc’s unity and ties with China

After the trip, Sultan Ibrahim praised China ’s stance on Israel with regards to the current conflict in Gaza, and said Malaysia was aligned with China on the issue of serenity in Palestine.

At the same time, but, China claims about the whole South China Sea, while some ASEAN members including Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei and Vietnam have overlapping claims.  

Mr Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations in the US, told CNA that Malaysia may be forced to compromise pursuing stronger ties with China and leading efforts to defend its and ASEAN members ’ sovereign right in the South China Sea.  

“There will probably be some place, such as a disagreement over stones of oil or gas growth in the South China Sea, at which Malaysia’s internationalism and comfortable strategy to China will be tested, ” said Mr Kurlantzick.

Ms Lin outlined that Malaysia, as both the latest state representative for ASEAN-China relations and a respondent position, has a substantial stake in advancing the Code of Conduct negotiations, which ASEAN aims to finalise by 2026.  

“Malaysia will probably prioritise pushing these conversations forward, emphasising ASEAN’s shared interest in ensuring a rules-based approach to the sea problems, ” said Ms Lin.

“However, if Malaysia is perceived as leaning very closely toward China, it may encounter challenges in maintaining the respect of other plaintiff claims, especially the Philippines and Vietnam, which are more assertive in defending their regional states, ” she added.  

MALAYSIA TO BE MORE OUTSPOKEN ON MYANMAR CRISIS 

At activities and on social media in May and June this year, Mr Anwar stressed that ASEAN member states need to join in facing the issue in Myanmar.  

He hinted he may push for ASEAN to get tougher on Myanmar, where pro-democracy rebels and ethnic minority military forces are battling the land ’s defense, which took strength in 2021 after ousting the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi.

Weeks after seizing energy during the 2021 revolt, the junta agreed to a “five-point discussion” program aimed at restoring harmony, but ignored it and carried out a terrible crackdown on dissent and military opposition to its rule.

Ms Lin of the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute posited that Malaysia, unlike the current chair Laos, is likely to advocate for stronger actions by ASEAN, in line with its historically vocal stance on human rights.

“ Unlike some of its more reserved ASEAN counterparts, such as the current chair Laos, Malaysia has been outspoken about the crisis in Myanmar, particularly following the 2017 Rohingya repression, where it criticised ASEAN’s weak response, ” she said.