Analysis: Xi tempers expectations on economic goals but could act ‘earlier’, more ‘decisively’ in 2025

SINGAPORE: A specific remark made by Chinese President Xi Jinping to regional authorities during a recent visit to the city in northwest Lanzhou, which was located along the Yellow River, caught the attention of foreigners in China. The statement was n’t about environmental protection.

Mr. Xi’s alleged statement,” Strive to achieve the full-year economic and social growth goals,” is a small change from the company command he made just months before.

Following China’s financial reform-focused Second Plenum conference held in July, his text therefore was stronger and clearer – that goals must be achieved “unwaveringly”.

This shift in tone, yet” subtle”, did not go unnoticed among spectators. &nbsp,

” Where usually we expect to observe phrases such as ‘ completely determined’ or ‘ unwavering,’ ( Mr Xi’s use of ) the word’ strive’ emphasises the effort and not the outcome”, wrote Mr John Browning, managing director of BANDS Financial, a Hong Kong-based commodity and economical futures broker, in his newsletter.

Others say it was n’t just a change in rhetoric. Experts who spoke to CNA said the changing tone was a representation of Mr. Xi’s tacit acknowledgment of the complex problems that are currently confronting China’s economy and that it is trying to temper anticipation. Beijing is still formally committed to its 5 % growth goal for 2024. &nbsp,

According to Mr. Matteo Giovannini, a senior finance manager at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China ( ICBC ) and non-resident associate fellow at the Center for China and Globalization,” Chinese officials are frequently very deliberate in their wording.” He added that the linguistic change may be a” sign that economic pressures are mounting, and that the leadership is managing expectations.

Mr Xi’s transition from a “more resolute’ unwaveringly’ to significantly more careful’ strive to accomplish’ suggests a recognition ( from him ) of the difficulties in achieving China’s 2024 growth targets but certainly a whole admission that the target is unattainable”, said Mr Giovannini.

He adds:” While the change in language seems gentle, in the context of Taiwanese social conversation, even small variations in wording may indicate broader motives”.

Experts told CNA that it’s a probable indicator that Beijing is reviewing its strategy, which may help to set the stage for more effective policy changes in the upcoming year. &nbsp, &nbsp,

A SHIFT IN TONE: FROM “UNWAVERING” TO “STRIVING”

Although the appearance is not uncommon, it has been used numerous times throughout history.

Mr. Xi urged leaders to” strive to achieve the goals and tasks for economic and social growth” in February 2020, when the pandemic greatly burdened the economy and China broke with more than a quarter-century history by absolving China of its annual economic growth goal.

He repeated it in July 2022 after a weekly Politburo’s financial meeting, telling officers to” try to achieve the best results feasible”. &nbsp,
 
He once again said,” Strive to achieve the various targets and tasks of economic and social development,” at the central economic work conference in December of last year.

Some experts do n’t think it represents a significant policy change despite Mr. Xi’s soft tone. &nbsp,

Top leaders appear to have already accepted the reality that the growth target is unlikely to be met despite the change in the economic landscape, according to Ms. Guo Shan, partner at Hutong Research.

” This is likely due to the economy’s structural soundness, with auto sales improving, employment stabilising, and high-tech industries outperforming”, Ms Guo said. ” Rather than achieving an exact GDP figure, the leadership appears more focused on addressing long-term structural issues.”

Last Saturday ( Sep 14), China’s National Bureau of Statistics released its economic data for August, with most indicators falling short of expectations. &nbsp,

Retail sales, industrial value added, and year-to-date fixed-asset investment ( FAI ) grew by 2.1 per cent, 4.5 per cent, and 3.4 per cent year-on-year, respectively- each lower than in July, even with recent policy support. &nbsp,