In light of the rising US-China control conflict in Southeast Asia and the spillover from the Myanmar civil war, Thailand plans to improve its surroundings defense and strengthen its military modernization efforts.
The Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF ) announced this month that its advanced Saab Gripen E/F fighter jets are a significant improvement over its current fleet of Gripen C/D models.
After a 10-month review, the RTAF then plans to get 12–14 fresh soldiers, with sales expected to start in 2028, pending the new Paetongtarn Shinawatra-led administration’s government approval.
In comparison to competitors like the US-made F-35 and F-16, the Gripen E/F has never won numerous international warrior events, according to the War Zone statement. Additionally, the RTAF maintains a larger ship of aging US-made F-16s and F-5 Tiger II planes in addition to 11 upgraded Gripen Cs and Ds.
According to The War Zone report, the Gripen E/Fs are anticipated to replace the F-16s ‘ older models at some point in the future with plans to phase out the F-5s as well.
Thailand’s purchase of more recent Gripen E/F jets is in line with its development plans and safety concerns, especially potential repercussions from the ongoing civil war in Myanmar and rising US-China competition for influence in neighboring nations.
According to Thailand’s 2020-2037 Air Force Strategy, the village’s justification for acquiring Gripen E/F fighter jets is to address evolving flying threats and increase its air security capabilities.
It points to the rise in unmanned aerial vehicles ( UAVs ), as well as potential regional conflicts, such as those that are rife in Myanmar, as significant factors that necessitate the purchase of advanced fighter jets like the Gripen.
These jets are intended to do roles such as air dominance, ground attack and reconnaissance, thus providing a dynamic response to normal and symmetric threats, according to the strategy.
But, it points out that the RTAF does face significant challenges with this consolidation, including the high costs associated with buying, operating and maintaining the advanced planes.
Thailand is facing the threat of more air incursions into its place by Myanmar’s more ready combat aviation because Myanmar’s coup has used its airpower to destroy opposition forces and continues to upgrade its air force with assistance from China and Russia.
Anthony Davis mentions in a January 2023 article for Asia Times that the Myanmar Air Force’s ( MAF ) new capabilities, including new Sukhoi SU-30 jets from Russia and Chinese FTC-2000Gs, are central to the junta’s strategy.
He notes that the MAF has ramped up regular missions since mid-2022, targeting criticism forces in Kachin, Karen, Karenni, Shan and Chin state. According to Davis, the Myanmar junta wants to oust Bamar-led People’s Defense Forces ( PDFs ) and divide ethnic resistance organizations ( EROs ) from the federal-democratic armed opposition.
Davis points out that the MAF’s various ships, including older Russian Mig-29s and Chinese F-7s, has been bolstered by new expansions, enhancing its functional flexibility. He adds that the MAF’s increased pilot experience and tactical flexibility, supported by numerous airbases, have improved targeting accuracy.
Not because of its lack of interception capabilities, but because of political considerations, Thailand has shown a restrained response to previous incursions by Myanmar into its airspace.
Kridsana Chotisut and other authors make reference to the Thai government’s muted response to a June 2022 incident in which a Myanmar MiG-29 fighter jet breached Thai airspace in a December 2022 article in the peer-reviewed Asian Journal of Comparative Politics.
Chotisut and others claim that while the RTAF issued a strong initial press release warning against additional violations, former prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha downplayed the incident, labeling it a minor issue and accepting Myanmar’s explanation of an unintentional error.
According to Chotisut and others, Thailand’s response is thought to have been influenced by its political and economic ties to Myanmar’s military and ethnic armed groups. They point out that this may have contributed to the Thai government’s deliberate choice to maintain stability in the border region and defend more important national interests.
Thailand’s purchase of Gripen E/F jets and its balanced defense diplomacy with the US and China serve as examples of its wider effort to modernize its military while maintaining its sovereignty in an increasingly competitive Indo-Pacific, aside from the potential aerial spillover from Myanmar’s civil war.
Paul Chambers claims in a 2024 article for the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs ( JIPA ) that Thailand’s policy on military purchases and participation in international exercises reflects a nuanced defense diplomacy strategy that balances relations with the US and China.
Chambers says that historically Thailand has acquired military equipment, including fighter jets, from various suppliers, primarily the US.
However, Alyssa Chen notes in a South China Morning Post (SCMP ) article this month that US-Thai ties were strained following the latter’s 2014 coup, which overthrew a democratically elected government. Chen claims that China intervened to fill the void as the US suspended joint military exercises and symbolically withheld$ 3.5 million in military aid.
She points out that Stockholm International Peace Research Institute ( SIPRI ) data shows that Thailand’s purchases from China have increased since 2014, with the latter selling big-ticket items such as submarines, anti-ship missiles, surface-to-air missiles and armored fighting vehicles.
Chen mentions that China and Thailand have expanded the scope of their military exercises, but that they are less complex than those Thailand conducts with the US.
In line with that, David Axe says in an October 2021 article for The National Interest ( TNI ) that during Exercise Falcon Strike 2015 between China and Thailand, Thai pilots shot down 42 J-11s while the Chinese pilots with their J-11s downed 34 Gripens.
Axe notes that while the Chinese J-11s had the advantage in within-visual-range ( WVR ) dogfights, the Gripens had the advantage in beyond-visual-range ( BVR ) combat, with 88 % of Thai kills happening at 30 kilometers compared to just 14 % of Chinese kills. He adds that the J-11s did not score any kills at that distance, while the Gripens did ten at 49 kilometers.
Thailand used its Gripens instead of its F-16s because the US has forbid Thailand from using its F-16 and F-5 fighters in military exercises with China.
According to Chambers, Thailand’s defense diplomacy has changed from a “bending with the wind” tactic to a more calculated hedging strategy designed to maintain the balance between the US and China, particularly the US.
He claims that Thailand’s involvement in joint military exercises like Cobra Gold with the US and China’s Blue-Strike and Falcon Strike exercises demonstrate this dual engagement.
As Southeast Asia is increasingly entangled in the US-China conflict, Chambers claims that Thailand’s strategy of balancing relations with major powers strengthens its military might and regional influence while avoiding relying on any one ally to defend its sovereignty.