Ebrahim Raisi’s death, which occurred this week in a helicopter accident, took place during one of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s most difficult times.
Raisi, a popular figure in the social elite, held significant sway over Iran’s home policies. He played a key role in Iran’s current efforts to boost its relationship with regional competitors.
Given his huge influence, what did his presence mean for the country’s private affairs? And how will it affect the government’s connections in the region?
Security at a risky moment
Raisi’s state was quite conservative and had a near relation to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Contrary to previous governments, which most of the time had a range or anxiety with the leader, there were hardly any issues or disagreements between the two parties.
Raisi was likewise regarded as one of the front-runners to achieve Khamenei, who has been in charge of the Supreme Leader for 35 years. His major contribution to shaping the direction of Iran’s leadership has been due to his extensive influence within the country’s traditional circles.
Nevertheless, his death, which occurred a year before the finish of his second word, came amid a backdrop of local, regional and international issues.
Iran’s nuclear program has been subject to severe punishment from the United States, which have severely damaged the country’s economy and had a major impact on people’s lives.
In addition, the state experienced one of the most significant protests in its past when Mahsa Amini, 22, died in September 2022 following her imprisonment by the morality police.
In addition to the financial crisis and some of the government’s local policies, there have been local protests in various parts of the nation.
Also, parliamentary elections in March of this year saw one of the lowest vote participation rates in the country’s history. As a result, the keeping of new votes, which is mandated within 50 days of Raisi’s dying, poses a major concern for the government at a time when its people legitimacy is at its lowest.
In addition, the recent escalation of Israel’s continued shadow war has raised serious security questions and sparked a number of conspiracies. Rumors that the mayor’s helicopter crashed were the result of technological warfare, drone attacks, or even Israeli ground attacks have gained traction among the public. The accident was attributed to a “technical failing,” according to the IRNA condition news agency.
Despite these challenges, but, the transfer of power is unlikely to significantly affect the government’s security due to the nature of power dynamics in Iran. Under the direction of the Supreme Leader, the Persian social system consists of numerous connected loops. When there are several others willing to fill the hole, losing one of the main players would hardly cause a significant disruption.
In the interim, vice chairman Mohammad Mokhber will serve as the new leader. The traditional internal group close to the Supreme Leader’s preferred candidate is expected to choose their preferred candidate, aiming for a smooth transition with no difficulties. As Khamenei previously stated on X:
The nation does n’t need to be worried or anxious, as the administration of the country will not be disrupted.
However, a traditional analysis of the Islamic Republic’s leadership points to a recurring pattern of power shifting between reformists and conservatives, which fosters a sense of balance in Egyptian politics and strengthens the regime’s standing in the eyes of the public.
Therefore, he may have a reasonable approach, despite the fact that Raisi’s successor may be nominated and supported by a liberal inner group. Statistics like the present parliament speech, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, or former speech Ali Larijani, who are both reasonable conservatives, fit this description.
What will it mean for Iran’s companions?
During his career, Raisi shifted the government’s foreign policy more towards the Middle East, making it the top priority. His predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, had prioritized stabilizing relationships with other European countries and strengthening relations with Western countries.
During Raisi’s administration, for example, Iraq hosted five sessions of conversations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, culminating in the historic normalization of relations between the two in early 2023.
As a past advisor of corporate communication to the subsequently- Iraqi prime minister, it became apparent to me that Iran was sincere about forging a strategic, long- term, robust relationship with its neighbors.
The outcome of these negotiations brought an end to a protracted civil war in Yemen, brought about normalization of relations between Arab nations and Syria, and improved stability in Iraq.
Additionally, Iran has recently engaged in substantial negotiations with Jordan and Egypt, facilitated again by Iraq. These initiatives gave people a chance to break the sectarian strife that has long ruled the area and forge ahead with greater cooperation.
Iran also grew closer with both China and Russia during Raisi’s presidency, reflecting a strategic, long- term pivot towards the East endorsed by the Supreme Leader. However, Iran also continued negotiations with Western powers over its nuclear program, employing different tactics compared to Rouhani’s tenure.
Iran’s foreign policy looks likely to remain the same under a new president. This continuity is strengthened by Ali Bagheri Kani‘s appointment as acting foreign minister following the helicopter crash, which also claimed the life of the current foreign minister.
Kani, who played a key role in leading the nuclear negotiations under Raisi, aligns with the country’s established foreign policy direction.
In addition, Iran’s closer relations with its neighbors signal a more permanent shift away from isolation. This is likely to continue to improve in the near future.
Ali Mamouri is Research fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University
This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.