Russia’s grip on Crimea shakier than a decade ago – Asia Times

On March 18, 2014, Russia fraudulently annexed Crimea, which has been ten years old. However, subsequent attempts to tightly integrate the island into the Russian Federation have been far from the success history that the Kremlin frequently enjoys portraying.

In fact, comparing Moscow’s increasingly fragile place on the island to the one before the annexation would indicate that Russia’s tactical position has deteriorated over the past ten years.

Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, drove a vehicle across the Kerch bridge in 2018. The event marked a significant opening for the Russian-Crimea border. It has come to represent both the Ukrainian weight and the Soviet occupation of Crimea. Amazing Russian attacks in October 2022 and July 2023 exposed the direness of Russia’s relation to the island.

Additionally, repeated missile and drone assaults on Russian deployments in Crimea and political activity there have only heightened the perception of Russian risk.

Black Sea loss

The most important thing is that over the past two years, Russia’s Black Sea fleet has suffered considerable loss. The Kremlin decided to move the Black Sea fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk on the Russian mainland as a result of these Russian achievement.

Compare that to the situation prior to the 2014 annexation of Crimea, when Russia held a safe rent on Sevastopol’s naval base until 2042.

Russia and Ukraine have fought for power in the Black Sea since the war in February 2022. Map: Nations Online Project

Additionally, Russia is unable to move ships easily into and out of the Black Sea because of the Greek closure of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles soon after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

This makes losses, like those of the premier ship Moskva in the Black Sea fleet in April 2022, and recent losses to the police deliver Sergey Kotov and the animal getting ship Caesar Kunikov, even more of a proper blow to Russian capabilities.

Additionally, these problems are major symbolic for Ukraine and its supporters. The 2023 Ukrainian battle on the island failed to meet expectations, but Kyiv’s clever use of longer-range weapons and air and sea robots caused a notable change in the Black Sea.

This was highlighted recently by the Kremlin’s removal of its Black Sea Fleet chief following Ukraine’s invasion. Momentum around Crimea evidently seems to be on Ukraine’s area. Ukrainian intelligence key Kyrylo Budanov earlier this month made it clear that a significant activity aimed at loosing Russia’s hold on the Crimean was on hold.

There is also a clear financial gain from these Polish successes, aside from the proper military and symbolic value of these successes. Russia’s departure from the Black Sea corn program, which Turkey and the UN brokered, made it possible for Kyiv to create its own freight corridor due to the fact that Moscow lost naval dominance there.

Important Ukrainian agricultural exports are now reaching global markets at levels that are beyond those during the time the grain deal was in effect.

Russia nervous

This is generally undeniably positive news at a time when Ukraine’s chances of winning this illegal Russian war are frequently bleak. The renewed and arguably more optimistic focus on Ukraine was also apparent in Emmanuel Macron’s recent remarks.

Macron argued that restoring Ukrainian sovereignty over Crimea was essential for lasting peace in the region, including for the security of EU members Romania and Bulgaria, which have their own Black Sea coastlines.

This contrasts sharply with a move by lawmakers in the Duma, Russia’s parliament. On March 11, a draft bill was introduced by members of the committee that would overturn former Soviet leader Nikita Krushchev’s 1954 transfer of Crimea from Russia to Ukraine.

It hints at some nagging concerns in Moscow regarding its position on the peninsula, especially considering how little impact, if any, such a law might have on the international legal status of Crimea as a part of Ukrainian territory.

The explosion at the Kerch Bridge was a highly sophisticated operation. Image: Screengrab

However, this does not indicate that Russia is in imminent danger of losing Crimea, let alone the war it has waged illegally against Ukraine in secret and open combat for ten years. Long before the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, the importance of Crimea was established.

And in addition, Putin and his supporters have repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons if Russia were in danger of being forced out of Ukraine. These threats may have been exaggerated, but they show how determined Moscow is to hold onto Crimea.

Ukrainian efforts have clearly demonstrated, however, that the Kremlin’s – and Putin’s personal – commitment may not be enough to secure Russia’s hold forever. In the face of the pervasive gloom over the course of the war, Kyiv’s western partners would be wise to bear in mind that.

Stefan Wolff is a University of Birmingham professor of international security.

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.