The US’s emphasis on non-nuclear technology may create opportunities for nations like Canada and New Zealand to meet the developing defence alliance as it gets AUKUS Pillar Two up to speed.
The Pentagon is pushing for the next stage of the AUKUS defense-technology agreement, which includes the US, UK, and Australia, according to a report from Defense One this month. This step will concentrate on cutting-edge systems like AI, freedom, electronic warfare, hypersonics and classical technology.
According to Defense One, Pillar Two of AUKUS is the next program, which aims to equip Australia with nuclear-powered submarines by the first 2040s.
According to the report, Pillar Two’s AI integration on submarine-hunting aircraft and autonomous equipment testing are crucial components. It claims that changing laws limiting the export of delicate technology will be necessary for it to be successful.
According to the report, the US Pentagon has emphasized the significance of these congressional changes for the long-term success of AUKUS, especially for deeper and broader ability collaboration.
Concerns about potential security risks have been expressed, according to Defense One, who worries that easing trade restrictions might allow enemies like China to obtain sensitive US systems.
Despite these worries, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has announced new Pillar Two milestones, including multilateral experiments and exercises that will begin the following year to improve the interoperability and capabilities of intelligent sea systems.
According to the Defense One statement, the Pentagon intends to use Artificial algorithms on P- 8 submarine-hunting aircraft used by all three alliance countries. According to the record, this will enable shared running of sonobuoy data, which may enhance anti-submarine warfare. It also mentions that AUKUS showed off systems like trusted robotics and autonomous crowds this time.
According to Defense One, an AUKUS development challenge will encourage businesses from all three nations to compete in the creation of specialized technologies, beginning with electrical warfare. Additionally, an AUKUS business forum will be created to advise policy.
According to the report, the US is investing in its industrial base to help AUKUS, including a proposed$ 3 billion shift from Australia to modernize its submarine business. However, this exchange is subject to legislative obstacles.
According to the report, the US State Department intends to sell a US$ 2 billion overseas military to Australia for training on the Pillar One. It states that training for American naval personnel and civilians will be included in the sale, which aims to improve submarine capabilities by incorporating technologies from all AUKUS partners.
AUKUS stands out from another defense agreements due to their shared background, language, culture, and social values. Delicate systems can be shared thanks to this high level of trust, which is only possible in the most close-knit alliances.
But, each AUKUS part has a different stake in the agreement. AUKUS brings Australia’s proper defense yet closer to the US, according to Canberra.
As part of its” International Britain” passions, AUKUS also enables the UK to envision a larger footprint overseas. In order to store an increasingly assertive China in the Pacific, Washington sees AUKUS as a long-term purchase in its strongest relationships.
But, AUKUS has come under fire for having nothing more than deterring China and being, at best, a contemporary example of Anglophone identity.
However, one of the group’s key distinguishing characteristics is techno-centrism, with Pillar Two notable for transcending nuclear propulsion, a highly contentious technology.
However, Canada and New Zealand, two other possible Anglophone partners, are noticeably absent from AUKUS’ existing membership.
Christopher Hernandez- Roy and other authors make the case for Canada’s membership in AUKUS in a May 2023 article for the Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS ).
Hernandez- Roy and others point out that Canada was never taken into consideration for AUKUS account mostly because of its high cost, which ranges from US$ 179 to US$ 245 billion annually, compared to Australia’s 30-year cost label.
They emphasize that Canada would find it difficult to maintain its military at that level, just as it has done since the Cold War’s close.
The authors make reference to documents that have leaked and claim that Canada will never be able to allocate the necessary 2 % of GDP to security. They point out that Canada may fall behind on important issues like maritime security, integrated punishment, and defense-industrial assistance due to its lack of reliable commitments to build up its defense.
Hernandez- Roy and others contend that joining the AUKUS may benefit Canada in a number of ways without the controversy surrounding nuclear ships.
Among them would be encouraging greater cooperation among member states ‘ defense industries, fostering strategic convergence against China in the Pacific, and promoting Russian Arctic cooperation. These initiatives would also include serving as a technological accelerator for Canada’s position within the North American Aerospace Defense Command ( NORAD ) and under NATO command.
Robert Patman mentions New Zealand’s invitation to join AUKUS Pillar Two in an essay for The Talk published in August 2023. He does, however, point out that the New Zealand government is also debating.
But, Tim Fish documents in an essay for Breaking Defense published in October 2023 that after New Zealand’s general elections that quarter, its chances of joining AUKUS Pillar Two significantly increased.
Fish observes that Chris Luxon, the winning National Party president and current prime minister of New Zealand, acknowledged that it was too early to predict how his government would join in AUKUS Pillar Two.
The dwindling government of New Zealand did unavoidably benefit from AUKUS account. The 15, 000-strong New Zealand Defense Force ( NZDF) is unprepared to handle future challenges, according to The Straits Times ‘ report from August 2023, which cited policy review documents.
According to The Straits Times, the NZDF was created for a mild geopolitical environment rather than one marked by intense power competition, which was made more difficult by China’s dominance in trading with New Zealand.
Concerns over independence may likewise prevent New Zealand from joining AUKUS Pillar Two because doing so would affect its independent foreign policy, which is based on non-nuclear security and the pursuit of closer ties with the Pacific.
Patman notes that while New Zealand shares many political interests with the US, Australia, and the UK, it does not view China as the only threat to the democratic rules-based attempt and that the” China risk” may be exaggerated.
Additionally, he claims that New Zealand’s view does not support the notion that the future of the Indo-Pacific will be determined by intense strength competition. He contends that joining AUKUS Pillar Two could be seen as a retreat into the Anglosphere and does little to expand New Zealand’s international policy objectives to strengthen the global rules-based order.