The most recent annual report from the US Department of Defense ( DoD ) to Congress on China’s military and security highlights the growing importance of artificial intelligence ( AI ) in the military planning, development, and modernization of Beijing, raising fresh worries about a potential AI arms race between the two superpowers.
The People’s Liberation Army( PLA) in China is accelerating the development of capabilities to improve its capacity to” fight and win wars” against a” strong enemy ,” fend off outside interference, and project power globally, according to the opening of the report. According to the statement, China” mostly denied, canceled, and ignored bilateral security engagements ,” including DoD demands for military-to-military communication.
The PLA discussed a new” core operational concept” called” Multi-Domain Precision Warfare”( MDPW ), which aims to use AI and big data advances to quickly identify vulnerabilities in the US operational system and then combine forces from various domains to launch precision strikes on those weaknesses, according to the DoD report.
According to the report, MDPW is intended to stand atop an” operational conceptual system-of-systems,” so the PLA will create supporting operational aspects and use calculations, war games, and exercises to test, assess, or enhance these AI-driven capabilities.
It notes that the operating principle connects China’s new corporate guidelines and military doctrine, reiterating themes and assistance while emphasizing what the PLA may be capable of in order to get future wars.
According to the report,” China has designated AI as one of its priority, national level S & amp, T development areas, and assesses that advance in AI and autonomy are central to intelligentized warfare, [ China’s ] concept of future warfare.” China also aims to surpass the West in terms of AI R & AMP, D by 2025 and take the top spot in the world for AI by 2030.
In its 2019 China’s National Defense in the New Era white papers, China outlines its latest proper instructions. According to the document, the PLA adopts effective defense principles in the new environment of proper competition and contemporary warfare while concentrating primarily on defense, self-defense, and post-strike response.
Military scientists are frantically speculating on how a regional war with information might break out. Kevin Pollpeter and other authors emphasize the value of information, techniques, and computing power in their October 2021 Center for Naval Analysis review, which describes smart war as the extensive use of AI in all military uses.
According to Pollpeter and others, hybrid man-machine command and control( C2 ) systems are likely to be used in intelligent warfare, with humans maintaining strategic control but having little tactical control over autonomous weapons systems.
They contend that brilliant warfare will spread wars to places like outside space and the ocean where people are unable to function effectively. They also point out that as militaries attempt to sway an enemy’s perceptions through the neglect, decay, and manipulation of data and algorithms, the cognitive domain will become more crucial.
Pollpeter and others also point out flaws in AI and automatic weapons, including data, real, inflexibility, and ethical concerns with target accountability and discrimination.
In a May 2021 content for Breaking Defense, Dean Cheng notes that the PLA is changing its stance on fighting” local wars under present, high-tech conditions” in order to achieve its goal of preventing nuclear or full-scale conflicts.
Cheng observes that technology, rather than large mass, is extremely important for weapons and tactics. He claims that older weapons and platforms would be improved by the increased use of information and communications technologies( ICT ), such as space-based guidance and communication systems, in wars under informationized conditions. Under these circumstances, he claims, techniques using AI, sophisticated cameras, and networked capabilities will become the norm.
Cheng notes that significant organizational changes made by the PLA in 2015 – 16 were intended to support and carry on those trends within the organization. He does, however, point out that the PLA has struggled with” jointness” and its application because joint operations were viewed as a special case as opposed to the rule of military action.
However, the PLA’s new focus on multi-domain joint operations may result in a greater integration of space, digital, and electronic warfare components, with contemporary technologies like stealth, AI, machine learning and autonomous systems necessarily altering how wars are fought.
According to Cheng, the PLA wants to be” fully mechanized and entirely informationized” by 2027 and is changing its doctrine to take into account the lessons learned from these shifts. He points out that the PLA is constantly integrating gear, doctrine, and organization into its force in addition to training and recruitment in order to change the organization for the 2020s.
MDPW is China’s response to the US Joint All-Domain Command and Control ( JADC2 ) strategy, which aims to integrate sensors and weapons with AI and a robust network. Stew Magnusson mentions this in an article published in July 2023 for National Defense Magazine.
The US DOD’s JADC2 method, which was unveiled in March 2022, aims to bring together disparate data from the US Armed Forces’ six branches onto a single system. This system is anticipated to cover a wide range of assets, including ships, aircraft, and unique soldiers, giving commanders an in-depth understanding of their functional context and particular fields of operations.
To effectively system and work on info on the battlefield while maintaining a strong and dependable network, JADC2 makes use of automation, AI, predictive analytics, and machine learning. Giving the US military a dynamic data advantage against rivals is the strategy’s ultimate objective.
Magnuson asserts that China will attempt to take down and obliterate JADC2’s destroy chain by physically attacking important information nodes, jamming information networks, and engaging in cyberattacks.
By attacking” connectors” like aircraft and satellites, the attacks would aim to sever ties with other branches of the military and extend or defeat operational tempos passively or through” shoot and scooter” techniques.
The threat of a harmful AI arms race is growing due to AI’s crucial role in the military beliefs and strategies of the US and China.
Henry Kissinger and Graham Allison compare the US and the Soviet Union’s Cold War nuclear arms race to the burgeoning AI weapons culture in an essay published this month for Foreign Affairs.
Kissinger and Allison contend that current efforts to contain AI, such as Gary Marcus’ call for a global governmental body, Eliezer Yudkowsky’s proposal to abolish artificial intelligence ( AI ), and Elon Musk, who demanded that AI development be halted for six months, will all fail because they require leading states to cede their sovereignty, which they note no great power will do.
Additionally, they contend that AI development is personally driven, in contrast to atomic technology, posing a threat to national security interests. They argue that before AI enters society’s security framework, restrictions may be placed on it and specific goals set.
They draw attention to the fact that private businesses have created regulations to lower AI risks and limit risky applications, for as” know your customer’s specifications for sky computing.”
The Biden administration brought the CEOs of seven significant AI businesses to the White House in July for a mutual commitment to establish guidelines to guarantee” health, safety, and faith ,” according to Kissinger and Allison, who suggest establishing standards for AI growth.
In the case of China, they assert that while it lacks the technology necessary to produce cutting-edge electronics, it has the necessary resources to do so in the near future.
They emphasize how the US and China’s efforts in AI may be a part of the world discussion, which will also include the AI Safety Summit and continued UN discussions on the subject. They emphasize that the establishment of an AI international agency akin to the International Atomic Agency ( IAEA ) for nuclear materials is necessary in order to implement the global AI order.