In Ukraine, Russia now fires about 14 million shell annually. Just 2 million are produced there. On the other hand, the Ukrainians struggle to find their sources while firing about 2.5 million shell annually.
A straightforward solution to Russia’s issue is a deal between North Korea and Russia for artillery shells, which the individual officials have stated they are” constantly advancing.” However, there are risks to the world’s balance associated with this package.
Since its conquest of Ukraine, Russia has been restricted in its ability to purchase military hardware, including artillery shells. It has made calls to China, Iran, and then North Korea. China has been cordial but has officially resisted providing weapons straight to the front lines.
Robots and a few casings have been sold by Iran to Russia. The first country to make the shift to immediately provide a sizable amount of ammunition for Russian artillery is North Korea. When viewed in a broader perspective, this transaction is likely to be remembered in history as an entry point for larger conflicts.
Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin, the presidents of Russia and North Korea, are both averse to traveling abroad. Kim will meet with Putin on September 13 for the first time since the Covid pandemic in 2020.
He rode in a train that was seriously armored. Face-to-face interactions are significant symbolic events for both men because they are uncommon and because their closeness conveys respect.
Russia’s requires
Soviet ground offensives and their well-established protective lines have relied heavily on the use of artillery.
They are under more pressure to purchase from the global market as a result of the Russian army’s inability to maintain its supply of shells. In contrast, North and South Korea maintain the shell reserves on the Korean peninsula, which are still technically under ceasefire rather than over. This is a legacy of the Korea War( 1950 – 1953 ).
As a result, the US is purchasing North Vietnamese shells to ship to Ukraine, and Russia will soon receive North Korean missiles. As a result, both sides can continue to fire at the same rates as long as their local companies adapt to the demands of this conflict.
Russia is no North Korea’s healthy friend. Russia participated in global efforts to halt North Korea’s nuclear technology growth in the 1990s.
A atomic North Korea with the ability to attain the US or Europe may be weakening because, like China, Russia naturally prefers stability in its immediate neighbors. However, the foundation for this rational alliance was laid by the invasion of Ukraine and the requirement for a sizable supply of artillery ammunition.
What is Kim seeking?
In exchange for money, foods support, and cutting-edge military technology, North Korea wants to trade its weapons. The best indicator of how much Russia needs North Korean ammunition will be the amount of Russia payments in these groups.
Regardless of its want, Russia is unlikely to move anything other than upgraded missiles for North Korea’s nuclear system, but not fast weapons or miniature warheads. Russia continues to be strategically concerned about the region’s security, which is one reason why US intelligence sought to make the first rounds of talks public in an effort to discourage Russia from continuing.
The conquest of Ukraine by Russia has boosted global ties. Finland, a former natural country, has joined NATO, and Sweden has requested participation. While Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea have even gotten closer to one another, South Korea and Japan have grown much closer.
The Ukrainians may find it difficult to collaborate on spy satellites, modeling, life intelligence, and even communications hacking. The link between a small, dirty war in Eastern Europe and the historical and present unrest in Asia is extremely risky and serves as an accurate stepping stone to an even larger conflict.
Cyberwar repercussions
Both North Korea and Russia are extremely skilled cyberattacks and computer intelligence countries that have the ability to destroy or destroy important equipment and take sensitive government data. Through careful operation scanning, it has been determined that North Korea‘s Lazarus cluster of thieves is to blame for crypto incidents totaling tens of millions of dollars.
Western societies now face a serious risk from Russia’s efforts in website scams, disinformation, and disruption to critical infrastructure.
Because the adult wallets where the Lazarus Group’s stolen cryptocurrency is kept have been found, some of it is stuck. In order to move the” coins” and make a significant portion of the revenue, Russia may be an invaluable partner.
When combined with Chinese, Russian, and Egyptian skills in influencing activities, hackers, mental battle, their combined power to influence the government and values of the Euroatlantic region is significant. A closer partnership between Russia and North Korea significantly improves the online side of this issue and the ongoing hostilities on the Korean island.
One component of this deal is the provision of artillery shells. The wider risks stem from the fact that it will power the conflict in Ukraine and unite Russia, North Korea, China, and Iran.
In the end, this agreement opens the door for riskier technology exchanges and more instantly links the conflict in Eastern Europe with tensions in Asia.
Professor of Intelligence and National Security at the University of Hull, Robert M. Dover
Disclosure: Robert M. Dover has disclosed no related affiliations outside of their educational session and does not work for, read, private shares in, or obtain funding from any company or organization that may benefit from this article.
Under a Creative Commons license, this article is republished from The Conversation. read the article in its entirety.