The 5G Mate 60 Pro cellphone from Huawei has sparked rumors that the Biden administration will tighten the screws on China’s scientific advancement by enforcing harsher restrictions. But given that earlier efforts appeared to have failed and that China was likely to respond in kind, what could it accomplish?
According to US Congressman Mike Gallagher, chairman of the House Select Committee on China, the two top Chinese tech organizations,” the time has come to close all US tech export to both Huawei and SMIC to make clear any agency that flouts US law and undermines our national security will be cut off from our systems.”
Under Secretary of the Bureau of Industry and Security ( BIS) Alan Estevez received a letter from House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul and several of his colleagues on September 14 expressing their shared concern about the Huawei smartphone’s 7-nanometer chip. These colleagues included Armed Services Committee chairman Mike Rogers, Energy and Commerce Committee chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers and Gallagher.
These studies suggest a infraction of US export control laws because US-originating technology is so widely used throughout the semiconductor supply chain, according to the letter. Regarding the Bureau of Industry and Security’s( BIS ) inability to effectively write and enforce export control rules against violators, particularly China, the letter states,” We are extremely troubled and perplexed.”
The letter continues,” For more than two decades, our boards and many members of Congress have written to you regarding BIS rule loopholes attempting, clumsily, to hinder technology to Huawei and SMIC, among others.” Despite this information and ongoing pressure from Congress to enact stricter regulations, BIS has continued to issue licenses to Chinese Communist Party ( CCP )- controlled businesses worth hundreds of billions of dollars, including SMIC. These businesses support the CCP’s military and, in defiance of BIS ‘ export restrictions, were in charge of producing the semiconductors that underpin Huawei tools running on 5G.
Despite the fact that Huawei and SMIC are international importers rather than US exporters, McCaul and the other signatories advocate” complete blocking sanctions” against them and criminal charges against their executives. Republicans who want to make President Joe Biden’s Democratic Party appear frail on China during election year are the only ones who have signed the letter.
As we approach the one-year anniversary of the October 7th China restrictions, it is abundantly clear that the trade controls are failing. The Commerce Department’s standards were set at a level that will not eventually prevent China from breaking through the restrictions set past fall, according to Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis, an California research and consulting agency specializing in the semiconductor supply chain.
” A package of potential Western responses to China related to front-end equipment, chemicals, advanced packaging, and IP licensing that would completely shut out the CCP ,” according to Patel.
These specifically include limiting exports of EDA ( Electronic Design Automation ) tools, ArF immersion lithography systems, photomasks, mask blanks and mask writers, epitaxy, etch, deposition, an ion implant, CMP ( Chemical Mechanical Planarization ), metrology equipment and 3D IC packaging equipment, photosynthetic gas and other chemicals, and servicing of existing equipment.
The Mate 60 Pro and other advanced artificial intelligence ( AI ) processors are powered by the 7nm Kirin 9000 series processor, which was created by Huawei subsidiary HiSilicon and produced by SMIC. But would these increased restrictions prevent the Chinese from producing such advanced chips?
The Netherlands and Japan, where they are produced, now impose restrictions on the export of ArF concentration printing equipment to China. However, the Chinese have already purchased a large number of these devices, and SMIC professionals are skilled in their use, as shown by the computer in the Mate 60 Pro.
Since 2019, imports of EUV systems, the most sophisticated form of printing necessary for making chips at 5nm and above, have been capped. The most cutting-edge form of previous-generation Detector printing is ArF immersion.
The US, Japan, and the Netherlands have also placed restrictions on the export of epitaxial chips, as well as chisel, cleaning, testimony, heating, measurement and related products.
However, many of these devices have also been imported by the Chinese, who have begun producing their personal epitaxial chips. The most recent sanctions might not prevent SMIC and other businesses from increasing production for another two to three years if they have sufficiently prepared.
Based on the significant amounts of semiconductor manufacturing tools that the Chinese have imported, which account for about 25 % of new global selling, that is an educated guess.
However, it is unclear exactly what they include or how big their supplies are. And it’s unlikely that they’ll make that public any time soon. SMIC removed all references to its 14nm approach from its website in May of last year, which raised the possibility that US punishment had reduced its output. However, the business then produces 7nm bits in large quantities.
The Chinese are actively working to lessen the risks posed by punishment because they are well aware of them. Foreign businesses are working hard to produce their own while also importing when far advanced equipment and materials as they can.
The best NAND flash memory manufacturer in China, YMTC, was unable to finish its subsequent factory after sanctions prevented it from using US machinery and engineering services at the end of last year, which served as a stark reminder of the session. YMTC is currently switching to local and alternate foreign suppliers, but the business apparently has a protracted, difficult road ahead of it.
Jiangsu Nata Opto-electronic Material, Red Avenue, Jingrui, Shanghai Sinyang, and Xuzhou Bokang Information Chemicals are just a few of the Taiwanese companies that produce photoresists. Industry sources claim that their products can only be used at 28nm thus far, but photoresists are currently developing for approach nodes that are more advanced, reaching 5nM. Kaimeite Gases & nbsp, a certified supplier of ASML, is based in China.
By the end of this year, Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment ( SMEE ) reportedly intends to release its first 28nm-capable DUV lithography system.
Other Chinese equipment manufacturers include Sizone( CMP ), Kincoto( packaging equipment ), Naura( etch, cleaning, and deposition ), AMEC ( epitaxy, etch ), and CEC Electronics( ion implant ).
Foreign businesses appear to be producing — or at least attempting to produce — everything required to make semiconductors, including chemicals, additional materials, silicon and other types of chips as well as the full range of chip-making tools and parts. Although their products are of lower quality than imported people and can still only satisfy a small portion of desire, quality and quantity are steadily rising.
Earlier in August, more than 600 Taiwanese manufacturers of transistor technology showed up at the China Semiconductor Equipment Annual Conference and Semicomducter Equipment and Core Components Exhibition in Wuxi.
Jacky Lin, CEO of Honghu Suzhou Semiconductor Technology, stated at the event that” China’s semiconductor industry would probably have continued on its old path as a pure chip equipment buyer, manufacturing for others ,” as reported by the South China Morning Post.
Now, if” full preventing punishment” are implemented, the Chinese market as a whole could be lost to overseas suppliers. It would definitely be almost impossible to convince Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to completely give up the Chinese chip business, even though some US officials may not be concerned about that.
The US and Western governments have been forewarned by CEOs Jensen Huang of Nvidia and Peter Wennink of ASML that the Chinese may create everything on their own. Wennick claimed in an interview with DigiTimes that China is being forced to become very impressive due to the stringent policies of American governments.
@ ScottFo83517667 is the author’s Twitter account.