A more significant foreign policy issue, namely how the country’s friends in the Indo-Pacific area are responding to the conflict in Ukraine, may be overshadowed by the debate in New Zealand over whether to visit” Pillar 2″ of the AUKUS security agreement.
AUKUS appears to be predicated on the idea that it will thwart or oppose China’s confidence in the Indo-Pacific. However, it is uncertain whether this arrangement would improve New Zealand’s fundamental national interests.
It is also obvious that China is not the only or even the greatest threat to this arrangement, despite the fact that New Zealand’s” stability, security, and prosperity” depend critically on an” international rules-based order ,” according to a recent government document.
The Indo-Pacific region’s capital have been closely observing the Soviet invasion of Ukraine in the meantime. The majority of people backed the UN resolution from last year denouncing Vladimir Putin’s” special military function”( Laos and Vietnam abstained ).
However, just Singapore, a nearby US ally, put Russia under sanctions. Additionally, the statements made by the ASEAN countries regarding the war have no directly criticized Moscow. This is connected to the significant malaise in Asia over the interruption and price shocks brought on by the conflict in Ukraine for international commodities.
hobbies in the Indo-Pacific
The war has caused food and energy prices to soar for Indonesia and many other Southeast Asian nations, as well as a more divided political climate.
Indonesia is the fourth-largest market for Russian substance fertilizer, which is required to grow native rice, and the second-biggest for Russian wheat. 15 % of all global exports of wheat come from countries that are members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Some Indo-Pacific nations are aware that China and India, two local powerhouses, continue to be crucial allies of Moscow.
China has declined to sign important UN resolutions denouncing Soviet deeds in Ukraine. Beijing has consistently blamed the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for starting the fight.
Since the beginning of the war, China has also significantly increased deal with Russia. In 2023, this bilateral trade will surpass US$ 200 billion, up from$ 70 billion in 2021. It is anticipated that Russian energy supplies to China will rise by more than 40 % this year.
Russia, China, and India
China and Russia’s defense relations are only getting stronger. Since the Ukraine war began, a number of joint activities have been conducted. Beijing has apparently given Iran parts this year for usage in robots being sold to Russia and has quietly provided Russia with military-related technology.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to emphasize near diplomatic and military relationships with Moscow despite being more openly critical of the Ukraine war than China’s Xi Jinping.
Important UN commitments criticizing the war have also been rejected by India. The American government also shows no signs of reducing its reliance on spare parts and technical help for the numerous Russian weapons platforms used by the American military, despite the fact that tensions between India and China have risen.
Additionally, since the war, business upset has increased by more than 30 %, including a tenfold increase in discounted Russian fuel purchased by India.
Last but not least, Indo-Pacific countries may be worried about how the US and the rest of the world will react to the Soviet invasion. They may specifically doubt the West’s ability to endure.
More than$ 75 billion in financial and military support has been provided by the US President Joe Biden’s administration, NATO has increased its membership, and the Russian economy has come under attack from a variety of broad and coordinated sanctions.
However, the US has also made an effort to avoid” provoking” the Putin administration directly while defending Ukraine’s sovereignty.
International backers of Ukraine also support a” land for peace” agreement with Russia. Additionally, it’s still possible that the present military responsibility will be dropped by a new Republican leadership in Washington in 2024.
assisting Ukraine in its fight against China
Given the situation, New Zealand needs to keep a close eye on the relationships between its support for thwarting Russian expansionism and its corporate interests in the Indo-Pacific area.
New Zealand has given Ukraine more than NZ$ 70 million( US$ 41.5 million ) in military and humanitarian aid to date. But given the potential consequences for the Indo-Pacific place if Putin wins any kind of victory, this appears to be fairly modest.
Particularly but when you consider that Ukraine is supposedly a liberal democracy that abandoned its atomic weapons in 1994( in exchange for Russian acknowledgment of its sovereignty and territorial integrity ) and that shares New Zealand’s ambition to reform the UN Security Council.
In fact, the best way for New Zealand to combat Chinese confidence in the Indo-Pacific place would be to significantly boost its military backing of Ukraine.
Any plans Xi Jinping may have for annexing Taiwan may be hampered if Russia is defeated or forced to withdraw. This would help to strengthen the” rules-based order” in the Indo-Pacific region, which is thought to be in New Zealand’s best interests.
Under a Creative Commons license, this essay has been republished from The Conversation. publish the first post.