SINGAPORE – A three-way electoral contest for Singapore’s largely ceremonial presidency will come to a head when voters go to the polls on September 1.
The race to clinch the non-partisan office has been notable for the emphasis that presidential contenders have placed on asserting their “independence” from the city-state’s long-ruling People’s Action Party (PAP).
The elected president exercises limited custodial powers as the head of state and is expected to remain above the political fray. Yet analysts have observed rising anti-establishment sentiment in the campaign, with rival candidates accusing one another of polarizing voters by attempting to politicize what is supposed to be a staid exercise in national unity.
Former deputy prime minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam, 66, is widely regarded as the frontrunner and choice candidate of the PAP, which does not extend official endorsements as a matter of practice. Others in the race include Ng Kok Song, 75, the former chief investment officer at sovereign wealth fund GIC, and Tan Kin Lian, 75, a former chief executive of insurer NTUC Income.
“This election has largely been driven by strong candidates with rather disparate views on the role of the presidency, [with] some unfortunately [displaying] less understanding of the office of the presidency,” said Felix Tan, a political analyst at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) about policy changes advocated on the hustings which go beyond the president’s ambit.
Singapore’s constitution requires the president to act on the Cabinet’s advice except in specific areas where they have discretional powers. The president is ultimately the guardian of the city-state’s rich financial reserves, with veto powers over any budget or specific transaction if it is likely to lead to a draw on past reserves, the total amount of which remains a state secret.
The president also has veto power over appointments to key public offices such as the Chief Justice, Supreme Court judges and the Commissioner of Police, as well as the authority to reject their proposed removals. Presidents may also authorize anti-corruption authorities to undertake investigations if the prime minister refuses to give such authorization.
Candidates for the presidency cannot be a member of a political party, though many have been ex-politicians. The officer-holder must remain politically neutral and is not allowed to publicly express views on legislation or government policy without being advised to do so by the government. The position is not intended to serve as an alternative power center to the elected government.
But presidential contenders have put forward their own interpretations of the role, with candidate Tan saying he would use “the influence of the president’s office” to shape government policies that impact the cost of living, housing and jobs. Tan has also advocated shortening the length of mandatory military conscription for males and raising conscript allowances.
While Tharman, who retired from all his positions in government in July and resigned as a member of the PAP to run for the presidency, has said the contest should be about the individuals who are running, their character, and their track record, Ng believes the election goes “beyond the individual” and is about the system of governance that Singapore needs to safeguard for its future.
“Unfortunately, this presidential election has also been conflated with a general election, which might unfairly discredit some candidates simply because he has an allegiance with political parties – ruling or opposition,” NTU’s Tan told Asia Times. “As such, the upcoming presidential election has become a referendum of sorts on the PAP, despite the fact that it should not be.”
All three candidates have political affiliations that have come under scrutiny during the campaign. Tharman and Tan were both previously PAP members, while the latter has caught flak for receiving public endorsements from opposition politicians.
Ng, who has spent 45 years in public service, including at the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), has differentiated himself as being the “only non-partisan candidate” in the race by virtue of not previously belonging to a political party, which he argues makes him uniquely qualified to serve as a “check and balance” on the government and discharge his duties “without fear or favor.”
The campaign has unfolded against the background of a spate of scandals still fresh in voters’ minds. The first graft probe involving a cabinet member in nearly 40 years was opened in July following the shock arrest of Transport Minister S Iswaran. Specifics of the ongoing investigation by the Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau (CPIB) have not been publicly disclosed.
Shortly after Iswaran’s arrest, Speaker of Parliament Tan Chuan-Jin, a former cabinet member once touted as a potential candidate for prime minister, resigned and left the PAP over an extramarital affair with another ruling party lawmaker.
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong admitted to learning of the affair in November 2020 and acknowledged that he should have “forced the issue sooner.”
Lee also announced that he ordered a separate CPIB probe into two senior ministers, K Shanmugam and Vivian Balakrishnan, after they were accused of renting colonial-era bungalows from a land authority at below-market rates.
Though the probe found no wrongdoing, the close timing of the incidents has heightened public skepticism of a government that has built its brand on clean governance.
The incidents prompted Prime Minister Lee to acknowledge that the party, which has ruled continuously since 1959, had “taken a hit.” That admission, in turn, has stoked new debate on the PAP’s system of internal checks and self-monitoring to uphold its vaunted zero-tolerance for corruption, summed up by the phrase “ownself check ownself” the party’s veritable motto.
“With the growing anti-establishment sentiments over the last couple of years, and especially so in the wake of recent scandals […] some to want to ensure that the PAP-led government cannot ‘ownself check ownself’,” said NTU’s Tan. “The campaigning messaging is very much indicative of this tension that currently exists in a very politicized presidential campaign.”
Ng weighed in on these sentiments when he told reporters, “I think that some of the recent negative developments in regard to a falling short of standards among our political leaders just make young people feel that there’s a certain amount of hypocrisy in the system. At first, this was just cynicism, but now, it is building up into distrust,” which he claimed is becoming “increasingly pervasive.”
Ng added it is because the ruling party is “perceived to be controlling all the national institutions and the key appointment holders that there is so much political cynicism among Singaporeans.” He remarked that Singaporeans increasingly feel that the “PAP wants to have the final say in everything, and no matter what they say, PAP will decide and tell us what is best for us.”
Some interpreted the PAP as exerting undue influence over the last presidential race in 2017 after the parliament amended the constitution a year earlier to approve a change to allow only members of a single ethnic group to run for president if no one from that group had been in the role for five consecutive terms, with the stated aim of ensuring ethnic representation among officeholders.
But with Singapore’s already strict qualifying criteria for the presidency ratcheted up ahead of that contest, which was reserved only for those of Malay ethnicity, none of the candidates qualified as eligible to stand by the Presidential Elections Committee apart from Halimah Yacob, a former PAP member and parliamentary speaker who controversially took over the presidency uncontested.
“The elected president institution is so skewed in favor of members of the PAP establishment – be they former politicians, senior public servants, or come from government-linked-companies – that many regard the election as a farce,” said Garry Rodan, an honorary professor at the University of Queensland’s School of Political Science and International Studies.
Rodan added that past presidential candidates had also attempted to tap into widespread public skepticism about PAP claims that Singapore’s political system has checks and balances on executive power. “What many see, instead, are endless checks on political opposition and criticism of the PAP that blunt accountability … Recent scandals have probably added to this skepticism.”
Though a PAP member for more than two decades, former senior minister Tharman has also attempted to set himself apart, pointing to a self-claimed track record of independent-mindedness. “Everyone in government, in the civil service, and frankly everyone outside government knows that I’m my own man,” said the 66-year-old during a recent televised presidential debate.
During that broadcast, Tharman, an ethnic Indian, seemingly broke from the party line on whether Singapore was or would be “ready” for a non-ethnic Chinese prime minister. “Singapore is ready anytime. If someone comes up who’s a superior candidate for prime minister, that person can be made the prime minister … It’s a mark of our progress as a society in my view,” he said.
That view is contrary to positions previously taken by Premier Lee and his short-lived designated successor, former deputy premier Heng Swee Keat, who in 2019 implied that older generations were not ready to support an ethnic minority as leader. About three-quarters of Singapore’s 3.5 million citizens are ethnic Chinese, while the rest are ethnic Malays, Indians or Eurasians.
“Tharman is generally viewed as a personality who is larger than the PAP. His recent statement on how Singapore is ready for a non-Chinese PM seems to be part of a campaign to showcase his independent thought and distinguish him from his time in the party,” said Nydia Ngiow, Singapore-based managing director at strategic policy advisory BowerGroupAsia.
Tharman is seen as a relative reformer who is credited with introducing modest welfare policies for the poor and elderly after electoral setbacks for the PAP at the 2011 polls. As a parliamentarian, he developed a track record of winning landslide victories, with his Jurong group constituency turning out top results for the PAP nationwide at elections in 2015 and 2020.
Ngiow added that many netizens had previously indicated they would have supported a Tharman premiership and that this will translate into their support for him as president. A 2016 survey by market research consultancy Blackbox showed Tharman as the clear favorite of Singaporeans to succeed Lee, with 69% in support of him becoming prime minister.
That year, Tharman ruled himself out as a contender for the premiership and later stepped down as deputy prime minister to make way for Heng, who later withdrew from the running as Lee’s successor in April 2021 in favor of a younger candidate. Incumbent deputy premier and finance minister Lawrence Wong, 50, is now expected to take the reins as Singapore’s next leader.
The six-year term of Singapore’s next president will overlap with the prime ministerial succession. Lee, who has been prime minister since 2004 and indicated his desire to retire, has said the succession will coincide with the next general election, which must be held by November 2025. Analysts see the looming presidential race as a political bellwether ahead of those national polls.
“If Tharman’s vote share is anything to go by, however much he gets, it will signal the amount of support that Singaporeans will have for the PAP,” said political analyst Tan. “There are still many who see Tharman as someone with his own mind and rarely bowing to the pressures of the ruling party or from any external forces,” he added.
Rodan said that while Tharman is “certainly the front runner,” it will be a challenge for him to replicate the same level of support as he attracts in general elections, while Ngiow added that the presence of two “opposition” candidates in the form of Tan and Ng will likely split the non-establishment vote, which would benefit Tharman.
“Given [Tharman’s] track record of winning landslides […] it would be interesting to see if similar numbers play out this week,” Ngiow said. “Recent discourse on vote spoiling may also gain traction and see a larger number of spoilt votes, which could then indicate growing displeasure at the current state of Singapore’s political landscape.”
Follow Nile Bowie on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @NileBowie