China is seeking to form a stronger military partnership with Russia aimed at counteracting the United States and Japan – but it intends to stop short of involvement in the Ukraine war.
That’s at least the takeaway of many Chinese analysts after State Councilor and Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu spoke at the 11th Moscow Conference on International Security (MCIS) on August 15.
There have been concrete signs that could be interpreted as the beginnings of a formal military alliance.
On July 23, China and Russia completed the four-day “Northern/Interaction-2023” exercise, in which the two countries deployed more than 10 warships and over 30 warplanes to the Sea of Japan.
In early August, at least 11 Russian and Chinese ships reportedly traveled close to the Aleutian Islands, part of the northern US state of Alaska, though they left without entering US territorial waters.
Meanwhile, the hypothetical foes of any Sino-Russian tie-up, whether it be an alliance or a mere “partnership,” have likewise been active.
Li’s six-day trip to Russia and Belarus, which started on Monday, came ahead of an annual trilateral summit in which US President Joe Biden will host Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol at Camp David in Maryland on Friday.
The US, Japan and South Korea will reportedly launch a series of joint initiatives on technology and defense during the summit. They are also expected to agree to mutual understanding about regional responsibilities and set up a three-way hot line to communicate in times of crisis.
At the same time, though, Beijing has resumed high-level meetings with Washington in recent months after the US threatened to impose investment curbs on China’s high technology sectors.
The Biden administration, after several rounds of talks, announced on August 9 softer than expected investment curbs on Chinese tech companies.
Li, who met with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu in Moscow this week to discuss bilateral military cooperation, said in his MCIS speech that the two sides share more than a strategic partnership and their ties are even more important than an alliance.
China’s restated commitment to Moscow comes as the Russian economy shows growing signs of stress due to the prolonged war in Ukraine.
Russia’s central bank increased its key interest rate by 350 basis points to 12% on August 15. The Russian ruble has lost about 25% so far this year, making one of the third worst performers among developing nations worldwide.
‘Not an alliance’
But Chinese commentators say that “more than an alliance” is not what Beijing actually wants.
“We understand that Russia is now standing alone due to the pressure from the US and the West, and that it wants to highlight its close relationship with China,” Liu Lan, a Hubei-based military commentator, says in an article.
“However, the Russian side should know that China and Russia are not allies and that it is not necessary for the two sides to form an alliance at this time,” the commentator wrote.
Liu says if Russian officials are not careful about their wording, both Russia and China will face unnecessary troubles. He says the two countries will join hands naturally as they are both threatened by US hegemony.
“Forming an alliance with Russia is not in our country’s real interests,” he says. “If we did that, we would be directly involved in the Ukraine issue and would bear even greater external pressure. Our country’s current focus should still be on economic development and the realization of national reunification,” he said, referring to Beijing’s vow to absorb Taiwan into the mainland.
Liu cautions that the formation of a formal Sino-Russian alliance would make Europe lean more heavily toward the US and disrupt economic cooperation between China and Europe. He says it would also provide a pretext for NATO’s expansion in Asia.
“Russia is not opposing only Ukraine but the entire Western world,” a Chinese columnist using the pen name “Xiongjie” says in an article. “Russians have not gotten rid of their Cold War mentality. They say they support a multipolar world but in reality they are trying to form an anti-West camp. This is not a good thing for us.”
Xiongjie says only a multipolar world is beneficial to China’s economic development and national interests. She emphasizes that Beijing needs to be aware that Russia and its allies in the Middle East, such as Iran, may want to “bi-polarize” the world.
Wu Xuelan, a political commentator, said in an interview with the Shenzhen Media Group that Beijing formed a military partnership with Moscow based on the assessment that Russia’s nuclear submarines and hypersonic missiles have put the US on new edge.
But at the same time, Wu said, China hopes that Russia and Ukraine can resolve their conflict through dialogue.
Taiwan and Ukraine
In his Moscow speech, Li also commented on the Taiwan issue and the Ukraine war.
“The Taiwan issue is China’s internal affair and does not require any foreign interference,” he said. “The reunification of China is an unstoppable historical trend, and any attempt to play with fire in this regard or attempt to ‘contain China by using Taiwan’ is bound to end in failure.”
Li said China wants to create a “friend circle” with countries in ASEAN, Europe, Africa, Latin America and the South Pacific in the hope of forming multilateral defense systems. He said China will deepen cooperation with Iran, a new member, and Belarus, a potential member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
He said China’s strategic partnership with Russia is a good example of Beijing’s Global Security Initiative of “preferring dialogue rather than confrontation, choosing partnership instead of alliance, and pursuing win-win cooperation rather than zero-sum.”
“While we are all living in the global village, it’s inevitable that some countries would have conflicts. The key thing is to have dialogues,” Defense Minister Li said. “China always supports the use of dialogue to resolve conflicts, including matters in Afghanistan, Syria, the Korean Peninsula, Ukraine and Iran.”
However, Li stressed that China still needs foreign support to develop its economy. He said China’s economic achievements can contribute to world peace and stability.
“Poverty is the origin of instability,” he said. “For many emerging market countries, development means security. China always wants to promote mutual security through mutual development.”
“After arduous exploration, Chinese people have embarked on the path of Chinese-style modernization. China’s development is inseparable from the cooperation and support of the international community, and will continue to provide new opportunities to the world,” Li said.
Read: US friend-shoring becoming China’s export enemy
Follow Jeff Pao on Twitter at @jeffpao3