“It’s not the size of the dog in the fight that counts, it’s the size of the fight in the dog.” – Mark Twain
In any battle or confrontation between two people or entities, one would intuitively anticipate an invincible or stronger entity to win. But sometimes the determination, spirit, and belief in one’s ability of the underdog produce an upset victory.
The story of David and Goliath is one of the best examples. The current status of Indian democracy is evocative of the Goliath and David myth, with indomitable Narendra Modi on one side and on the other the opposition’s desperation to win under the Congress party’s guidance in 2024.
Modi is a cult figure in Indian politics thanks to his victories in two consecutive general elections, 2014 and 2019, and numerous state elections. But the defeat of his Bhartiya Janata Party in Karnataka State Assembly polls in May has turned the tables. Karnataka had a reputation of being a “laboratory” for the BJP’s right-wing Hindutva ideology.
The Indian National Congress’ victory was considered a personal loss for Modi’s brand of politics, as the BJP had made Modi the key figure of its campaign. Karnataka was considered a litmus test for voter sentiment before the 2024 general election.
The defeat was a warning sign for Modi, as his party is no longer in power in any of the five southern states. It certainly makes a statement that South India rejects the BJP’s politics of hatred.
Certainly, the State of Karnataka has shown a path toward opposition unity. On June 23, leaders of 15 opposition parties, including Rahul Gandhi of the INC, met in Patna, Bihar, to signal multiparty unity against the BJP. On July 18, opposition parties again met in Bangalore to announce formally the name of their alliance as the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.).
But the chemistry of any alliance is different from its arithmetic. The coming together of parties or leaders is one thing, but converting this into votes is another thing until the opposition has a stronger agenda that resonates with people’s aspirations.
That is an agenda that calls for an inclusive, innovative, and inspirational India, which reflects the aspiration of the world’s most populous country on the global stage.
Indian blueprint for the next decade
(1) Federal Structure Revision: The makers of the Indian constitution had a view of strong central authority to protect the country’s survival and political stability, thus giving the central government greater authority than the states and creating what may appear to be “centralized federalism.”
Under the Modi government, however, this robust federal structure has been exploited to suppress state governments led by opposition parties. Central agencies such as the Enforcement Directorate and Income Tax Department have been blatantly used to target opposition leaders, journalists, and civil society.
Under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act of 2002, the Enforcement Directorate (a central agency) has increased the number of raids by 27 times under Modi’s rule, mostly targeting political opponents. These politically motivated raids not only undermine the rule of law, but also weaken India’s democratic credentials.
As I have written previously, a new federal structure that adequately represent the interests of the states and the central government is the need of hour to the stop misuse of institutional power.
(2) Industrial Nation Dream: India has witnessed a concerning trend of de-industrialization since the early part of the century. A strong argument is always made that only mass manufacturing could create enough jobs for such a huge workforce as India’s.
In 2014, Narendra Modi, upon assuming office as prime minister, made a significant promise to revitalize the country’s industrial and manufacturing sector through the “Make in India” program. However, foreign investment primarily flowed into service sectors, leading to a conclusion that the “Make in India” initiative had not achieved its intended objectives.
Apart from that, Modi shut down the 1950s-era Planning Commission when he took office.
The Planning Commission was a government organization that defined goals for industrial and agricultural production over a five-year period. The only thing worse than socialism with central planning is industrial policy with no planning at all. In recent years, manufacturing-sector growth has seen a rapid decline.
India recorded a 3.4% fall in manufacturing-sector growth during the previous five years according to the National Statistical Office (NSO), which is under the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation. Its declining performance raises concerns for both employment and the economy’s general growth prospects. It is a concerning indicator for a nation that adds a million workers to its labor force each month.
The disproportionate emphasis on “Digital India” initiatives has, unfortunately, overshadowed the importance of industrialization for the nation’s progress. To ensure sustainable economic growth and address the pressing issue of employment generation, a revival of India’s industrial and manufacturing sector becomes imperative.
Historically, no country has ever achieved significant economic power without reaching a high level of industrialization. But now with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) and automation, the dream of transforming India into an industrialized nation can be realized at an accelerated pace.
(3) New Employment Policy: For decades, the Indian information-technology industry has played a pivotal role in generating employment opportunities. The National Association of Software and Services Companies (Nasscom) reports that the Indian IT sector directly employs more than 5.1 million people.
However, in recent months uncertainties in the global market and advancements in AI technology with tools like ChatGPT or generative AI have significantly impacted the revenue of IT companies, leading to layoffs and job losses.
According to India Today, more than 200,000 people have lost jobs in the IT sector between January and May 2023.
Experts warn that technologies like ChatGPT, capable of generating code, may soon replace software engineers. This prospect is particularly concerning for India, which is home to 5 million skilled coders.
In light of these developments, a new employment and skill development policy is necessary. Mitigating the potential impact of these technologies requires a proactive approach that empowers workers to adapt and acquire new skills that align with the evolving job market.
Diversifying the employment landscape and promoting skill development will be the keys to fostering a resilient and adaptable workforce. It is time for India to embrace a future where man and machine work in tandem, hand in hand, as partners in progress.
(4) Automated and Innovation Economy: According to the World Economic Forum, intelligent connectivity enabled by fifth-generation telecom technology (5G) will act as a catalyst for social-economic growth in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. India needs to be more focused on its vast domestic market and home-grown technologies.
The time has come to reorient India’s strategy toward more advanced technology like aircraft, telecommunication, virtual reality, and artificial intelligence.
In the AI age, data will be the new oil, and India could be the new Saudi Arabia. India’s advantage is the sheer size of its population, vibrant online commerce, social networks, and functioning democracy.
The country is immersed in data, further fueled by its dynamic and tech-savvy young population. Leveraging their skills and resources effectively will empower India to build more sophisticated AI and automation systems.
By embracing automation and AI with optimism and foresight, we unlock the doors to a world of possibilities and unlock the true potential of our economy.
(5) Food Security: India is suffering from one of the highest numbers of undernourished people in the world, despite having one of world’s largest farm outputs. There were 224.3 million undernourished persons in India in fiscal 2019-21.
While a major portion of the population engages in agricultural activities, ensuring food availability for all is a challenge due to the increasing population and mismanagement in the public distribution system. To achieve national food security, investment in modern irrigation systems, agricultural development, and effective distribution networks is paramount.
Enhancing agricultural production and distribution will lead to increased employment opportunities, improved incomes for farmers, higher GDP growth, and better living standards. Inefficient distribution can be eliminated through technology. National food security has the potential to contribute to India’s economic stability significantly.
India has a lot to share with the world if it pursues the right agenda. This inclusive agenda will certainly put the country on the right path, to an India that celebrates diversity, respects diverse opinions, and provides inclusive growth as well as opportunities for all.
The opposition parties need to demonstrate the vision, agenda, and spirit to fight for this new India.