Rising Sino-American rivalry and fears of an accidental superpower clash are forcing states to step up their diplomatic games.
That’s particularly true for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which is now scrambling to forge greater internal unity and nudge the US and China toward greater dialogue to avoid a conflict in its neighborhood.
Indonesia, the current chair of ASEAN, announced this month that it will soon host the first-ever naval drills among member states in order to reinforce “ASEAN centrality” amid the “high risk of disaster in Asia, especially Southeast Asia.”
Just days after, however, Cambodia, largely seen as Beijing’s leading regional partner, torpedoed Indonesia’s plan by expressing reservations about joining the joint drills.
In a statement, General Vong Pisen, commander-in-chief of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces, said that his country has yet to agree to the drills.
Cambodia, which is widely suspected of secretly granting China exclusive rights to its Ream Naval Base, seems to have taken issue with the location of the proposed drills. Cambodia has denied any secret basing deal, which would violate the kingdom’s constitution.
According to Indonesian military chief Yudo Margono, the ASEAN drills were supposed to take place later this year in the North Natuna Sea, a resource-rich area off Indonesia’s northern coastlines that overlaps with the southernmost tip of Beijing’s expansive “nine-dash line” claim to nearly all of the contested South China Sea.
China has claimed “traditional rights” over fishery resources in the area and, over the past decade, has deployed a growing number of paramilitary and coast guard vessels to assert its claims in Indonesia’s northern Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
Taking a page from the neighboring Philippines’ playbook, Indonesia renamed the resource-rich waters off the coast of its Natuna Islands as “North Natuna Sea” to expressly reject China’s claims.
Indonesia made it clear that the proposed joint ASEAN exercises would be non-lethal in nature, focusing primarily on non-traditional security and humanitarian and disaster relief operations (HADR).
It’s not clear whether Cambodia is opposed to the location of the drills or the whole effort to build greater intra-ASEAN maritime security unity.
What is clear is that the regional body is yet to overcome profound divisions within its own ranks, especially as major powers leverage their influence over smaller ASEAN members to push their own agendas.
Cambodia’s latest bolt-from-the-blue intervention has revived troubling undercurrents of disunity in ASEAN’s recent history. Back in 2012, Cambodia, then as ASEAN’s chair, sparked arguably the greatest crisis in the regional bloc’s history when it expressly tried to block even the discussion of the South China Sea disputes.
The controversial decision came in the wake of a months-long standoff between the Philippines and China over the Scarborough Shoal and culminated in the unprecedented failure of ASEAN to issue a joint communique after a senior diplomatic meeting.
Later that year, during the ASEAN summit in Phnom Penh, the leaders of the Philippines and Cambodia openly exchanged barbs amid the deepening diplomatic crisis.
At one point, then-Philippine president Benigno Aquino III, who at the time was contemplating an international arbitration case against China, warned, “The ASEAN route is not the only route for us. As a sovereign state, it is our right to defend our national interest.”
It was precisely at that point that Indonesia stepped in to avoid a total bloc breakdown. Thanks to Jakarta’s efforts, the regional body agreed on a “six-point principles” initiative, which ensured that key geopolitical issues in ASEAN’s neighborhood would not be unilaterally excluded by any member state.
In particular, the initiative ensured that the regional body would remain committed to institutionalized dialogue to manage and resolve the South China Sea disputes.
Over the succeeding years, Indonesia also pressed ahead with negotiating an ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP), which seeks to assert the regional body’s centrality in shaping regional affairs. Ahead of Cambodia’s chairmanship of ASEAN in 2022, however, there were growing worries of another diplomatic crisis.
In particular, many in Singapore remained skeptical about Cambodia’s role in the region. Back in 2007, Singapore’s first prime minister Lee Kwan Yew bemoaned, per a leaked diplomatic cable, Cambodia’s admission to the association.
He criticized Cambodia’s political system and history, which the senior statesman said were “difficult” and “too personalized around Prime Minister Hun”, who at the time was becoming increasingly dependent on Chinese patronage.
Back in 2020, a senior Singaporean diplomat even broached the idea of expelling Cambodia from ASEAN due to concerns over the country’s strategic autonomy vis-a-vis China.
Cambodia counts Beijing as its top source of both trade and economic aid, but it’s not alone in the region in this regard. Singaporeans also expressed concern over the admission to ASEAN of Laos, which is among the world’s most heavily-indebted nations to China.
What makes the Cambodia case special, however, are suspicions that the country is set to host a Chinese-led naval facility at the Ream Naval Base, which faces the strategic Malacca Straits and could give China a strategic new southern flank in the South China Sea disputes.
This could give China significant leverage over choke points in the region and could help support its naval operations in both the South China Sea as well as the increasingly crucial Indian Ocean theater, where China is at loggerheads with India and the US.
During a meeting with US diplomatic visitors, Cambodian defense officials, which oversaw the destruction of US-funded buildings at the base, acknowledged that China was constructing new facilities but insisted that there were “no strings attached.”
US officials, including Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, who visited the country in 2021, were reportedly denied full access to the base’s facilities.
Satellite images show that the base’s facilities have undergone massive transformation, with breakneck construction culminating in 25 additional buildings and two additional piers at China’s half of the base since 2019.
The second pier has a total length of 685 meters with 290 meters of usable docking space, and has been developed in ways that resemble China’s naval base at Djibouti in the Horn of Africa.
During its chairmanship of ASEAN last year, Cambodia was largely even-handed in handling relations with both the US and China. But fears of Hun Sen acting as a Chinese proxy within ASEAN were further reinforced following the announcement of the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) nuclear-powered submarine deal.
In response, the Cambodia leader, who notably is not on record criticizing China’s naval build-up and aggressive behavior in adjacent waters, lambasted AUKUS as “the starting point of a very dangerous arms race” and warned of threats to ASEAN’s “nuclear weapon-free zone.”
“The small-scale alliance relevant to nuclear-powered submarines among the US, Britain and Australia is becoming a concern for ASEAN and countries in the region,” Hun Sen said earlier this year.
Now, Cambodia is also criticizing efforts by fellow Southeast Asian nations to foster greater unity and cohesion on maritime security issues.
Cambodia’s military and “several other countries” were uncomfortable with Indonesia’s ASEAN naval drill proposal, it said without mentioning other states by name. Cambodia noted that Indonesia “did not mention ASEAN joint military exercises in the South China Sea” during the 20th ASEAN Commander-in-Chief Meeting held in Bali in June.
It’s not clear whether Cambodia is opposed to the entire idea of ASEAN naval drills or just the location of the proposed exercises. By mentioning the “South China Sea”, however, Cambodia effectively described the so-called “North Natuna Sea” as an extension of the South China Sea basin and, indirectly, reinforced Beijing’s claims in the maritime area.
Cambodia’s Defense Ministry spokesperson General Chhum Socheat raised doubts about the drills by stating no other ASEAN member has responded to Indonesia’s “request” for the inaugural joint naval drills later this year.
Last month, Indonesia’s leader Joko Widodo expressly warned, “ASEAN unity is needed to formulate the way forward,” underscoring the dearth of consensus and decisiveness in handling manifold crises in ASEAN’s own backyard.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on Twitter at @Richeydarian