Yesterday my Bakhmut update noted that it appeared the Ukrainians had launched a major offensive on the southern flank of Bakhmut. The evidence for this was news reports, Ukrainian claims of a big victory, and the claim by the head of private military contractor Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, that Russian soldiers had not fought but run away, and that maybe 500 of them had been killed. He went on to claim he would fix the problem, although it was not his area of responsibility.
But was this what actually happened? Even the Institute for the Study of War, which tends to be strongly pro-Ukrainian (although it tries to keep some objectivity), isn’t so sure because it was unable to confirm the Ukrainian success “visually.”
At least one excellent video analyst on You Tube describes the action by Ukraine as a sort of reconnaissance in force, but one that only chased away a small group of Russian soldiers. The channel goes on to say that the chance for any Ukrainian followup is very small, because Russia’s flank defenses beyond the trip line are very strong.
But the real issue is Prigozhin who, in the last few days, savagely attacked the Russian army leadership and called Putin, who in Russia is known as Grandfather, an “a**hole.”
Prigozhin lives off of Putin’s support and Putin is regarded as his “best friend.” So what is going on?
Prigozhin has had his aides put out that he wasn’t taking about Putin but about Colonel General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of Russia’s armed forces. There is little likelihood the nomenklatura in Moscow will believe this excuse.
To begin with, Prigozhin was not at the front and his line of information seems to be coming from Ukrainian statements. When he heard about Russian army people running away – as Ukraine claimed, providing a video of a half dozen soldiers running – he exaggerated it even beyond Ukraine’s own declarations, saying that 500 Russian soldiers were killed.
Since there were, at most, only a couple of Russian army companies along the contact line for the alleged battle, this is statistically impossible.
This blast at Putin, along with Prigozhin’s claims about ammunition and his attacks on the Army’s leadership, add up to evidence indicating that while Wagner is being used for Bakhmut urban fighting, Prigozhin is not receiving intelligence briefs outside of his immediate mandate.
That would mean, among other things, that he is not trusted and not regarded as a “real” military commander. And, in truth, Prigozhin has no military training or background. He relies on field commanders, lately some drawn from the top ranks of the Russian military, to run Wagner operations.
All this said, some think that this time Prigozhin may have crossed a red line with Putin. In simplest terms, Prigozhin is demanding recognition and prestige, and he is getting neither.
His credibility is now at an all-time low.
Furthermore, he may have dug a deep enough hole to suggest his days as head of Wagner are numbered.
Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published on his Substack, Weapons and Strategy. Asia Times is republishing it with permission.