Many parties have more than one candidate for prime minister at this point in the campaigning. While Paethongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, is a Pheu Thai candidate with dynastic charisma, she is flanked by two older and more experienced candidates, so she is no sure thing.
There are other known unknowns, such as the role of palace and the possibility of last minute big surprises, such as the announcement and subsequent cancellation of King Vajiralongkorn’s elder sister Princess Ubol Ratana as a prime ministerial candidate in 2019.
If Pheu Thai returns, then the seeds for the next coup, either military or judicial, may have already been sown. Pheu Thai’s populist promises – such as a 10,000 baht cash bonus (US$300) into a digital wallet for all adults – may offer the pretext for intervention, just like in 2014, when former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s poorly-designed scheme to buy rice from farmers well above market prices was framed as reckless economic irresponsibility. The possibility of Thaksin returning to Thailand could again inflame conservatives and provoke a return to the streets.
Deep social and regional cleavages remain in the Thai body politic, making Thai politics as uncertain as ever.
Greg Raymond is a Senior Lecturer at the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, Australian National University. This commentary first appeared on East Asia Forum.