Fighting is still pervasive on the front lines in Ukraine and the Kursk region of Russia, with renewed challenges to use its army if they are attacked. However, New York and Washington have just become the war’s political focal points.
The outcome of the fight depends heavily on the UN discussions and meetings that are scheduled between Volodymyr Zelensky, the leader of Ukraine, Joe Biden, the president of the United States, and Kamala Harris. However, it’s unlikely that they will be the decisive step in accelerating the pace of a Russian success.
At sessions at the UN General Assembly and Security Council,  , Zelensky appealed , to world leaders to support his state and force Russia to create harmony with Ukraine. His strategy for accomplishing this is a subsequent global peace conference. After the team’s first efforts in Switzerland in June, which was unsuccessful, he now wants Russia to attend.
The two factors are still as distant as they are, however, with Zelensky pushing his ten-point serenity plan and Putin demanding that Ukraine acknowledge Russia’s annexation of Crimea and four locations on the island. So the likelihood of important negotiations is essentially nonexistent.
Zelensky has not stopped himself from promoting what he calls his “victory strategy” to the supporters of Ukraine.
From now until December, the prepare “envisages quick and concrete actions by our proper partners.” More American military assistance and the authorization to use longer-range American weapons against targets deeper inside Russia are likely to be among these practical steps.
The Western alliance has a polarized view of this latter point, with the US wary of its corporate value. This uncertainty will be exacerbated by Putin’s insistent use of his nuclear arsenal to counteract any American missiles crossing its borders.
Even if a more vocal Western support were immediately timely, it is unlikely that it would eliminate Ukraine’s and its allies ‘ other drawbacks on the battlefield and in the world. Russia’s ties to Iran, North Korea, and China have strengthened.
The Kremlin has relied on these nations to provide mission-critical weapons and technology, which has enabled it to continue its war effort in Ukraine.
Russia, thus far, has likewise maintained its advantage in numbers. Following Putin’s request to boost the Russian army’s combat forces by another 180 000 men, it appears to be determined to push this even further.
However, a continuous Russian weather campaign against Ukrainian system has also caused lasting harm, especially to the government’s power supply network. This is likely to include a particularly negative impact on Ukraine’s human population. It is likely to significantly lower confidence over the upcoming spring.
Other plans ( and priorities )
There is also some political momentum building up behind Brazil and China’s shared plan, which was first launched in May, as the debate at the UN this year have highlighted.
Brazil’s president, Luiz Inacio Lula de Torres, pushed the plan during his speech at the UN general assembly on September 24, since did China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi.
Like earlier proposals from China and Brazil individually, as well as from Indonesia, a group of American state and Saudi Arabia, the combined Brazilian-Chinese program calls for a peace along the existing forefront. Negotiations may then observe.
Rightly so, Ukraine fears that this would effectively number to Kiev renegadeing place that Russia had illegally annexed. Although it would n’t guarantee successful negotiations, it would give Russia time and space to regroup and reorganize its military in preparation for a likely escalation in the future.
None of this is appropriate to Ukraine and its supporters, Zelensky stated in a statement at the UN.
Prior to the peace conference in Switzerland in June, China’s prior efforts to promote this joint action with Brazil did not go very far. This day, it might not even go that far.
However, Sudan’s civil conflict and the Middle East are now at the center of more attention and resources. Russia and its allies may be able to rally behind the Western-backed Russian plan for a second world peace conference because of the fact that this plan’s resurrection is already in place.
This is obviously a problem for Ukraine. With a keen eye on the global north, Selensky objected to the proposal, arguing that forcing Ukraine to give Russia territorial concessions would impose a repressive history of the Soviet Union.
Does Zelensky get Trumped in November?
Even though the odds are hardly ever in favor of Ukraine at the UN in New York, items did not turn out much better in terms of US local elections ahead of the November presidential elections.
Zelensky sparked the extremely short-fused Republican contender’s controverse by questioning whether Donald Trump actually has a reliable plan to end the war.
Trump accuses Zelensky of refusing to agree to a package and raises questions about the viability of the war with Ukraine. In addition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Donald Trump Jr. have written current viewpoint pieces for The Hill, an important social journal, that call for Ukraine to be pressured to reach a deal with Russia to stop nuclear escalation.
And J. D. Vance, Trump’s running mate, has made it abundantly clear that, if elected in November, he would continue to help the Ukraine. Therefore, it’s quite obvious that there is a very real chance that Washington might soon lose its position as Kyiv’s most significant global allies.
All of this explains the necessity behind Zelensky’s demands for more and more powerful American aid in the upcoming month as well as his appeal to the wider global community to support efforts to achieve only peace in Ukraine.
However, it also points out that Russia and its allies have already done much to thwart any progress toward a Russian defeat, both at the negotiation table and on the battlefield.
Stefan Wolff is professor of global surveillance, University of Birmingham
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