The Trump administration’s efforts to start peace deals between Ukraine and Russia have been hampered by Volodymyr Zelensky. Only after Vladimir Putin announced he was willing to talk to Zelensky in a significant change from Russian plan, Zelensky himself rejected the offer that US diplomats had made.
When Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top representative for international affairs and security policy, declared that the EU did not understand Crimea as Russian, the Trump team acted with some Europeans ‘ cooperation but not the EU.
The policy’s fundamentals have been covered extensively in the planning press, despite the policy’s information remaining confidential. The de jure acknowledgment of Crimea as being Russian and the de facto understanding of Russian territorial claims in the Donbass and abroad are the two major regional characteristics.
A country being recognized as de law means it is recognized as a legitimate right. De facto does not imply any rights, but it is just stated proviso and could be altered.
The Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts have been annexed by Russia. An operational department or region’s borders were originally established under Russian control. Russia currently controls 70 % of the annexations it has annexed.
It’s unclear whether Russia may consent to a de facto arrangement of the four oblasts, which leaves some of them under Russian control. No way is it certain whether a de facto agreement would avoid the war from rekindling in the future.
The Trump administration’s plan has no known features. The issues include how to secure a temporary or permanent settlement of the conflict, the role of outside parties ( such as the Ukrainian military and the power of European countries on Ukrainian soil ), the disposition of significant assets ( minerals and power plants ), and of course keeping Ukraine out of NATO.
Ending sanctions ( which most likely includes returning seized Russian assets ), is one of the veggies the US is waving in front of Russia. Because of the sanctions ‘ impact on the international banking system, the supply of energy to Russia’s previous clients, and how business will become regulated on the Black Sea, the US cannot formally do this.
If Zelensky didn’t engage, which is currently the case, nothing of this might be significant. Zelensky is attempting to sink any deal with the United States, but is he trying to get more concessions from them? This is the backdrop issue. He most likely intends to do both.
Zelensky’s unwillingness to cooperate with Crimea has caused a stir in the US administration and among the Europeans who were hoping for a partnership. That was the justification for holding a high level meeting of international officials in London.
The meeting has now been significantly downgraded, and it will likely turn out to be a contentious and pointless training. The US is sending Public Keith Kellogg, who is arriving without any particular authority, instead of Secretary of State Rubio or even Steve Witkoff. In addition, Witcoff will become visiting Moscow after this week to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin for a second time.
The Witkoff and Putin’s goals are unknown, especially in light of Zelensky’s scuttling behavior. The Trump administration may want to avoid Russian military action in Ukraine by buying period, according to sensible speculation. President Trump repeatedly makes that point to both parties and to others because he is particularly vulnerable about the individual prices of the battle.
Making purchases may include information about easing some restrictions or completing some business deals to appease the Russians. Such arrangements do likewise alert Zelensky to the US’s intentions to pursue further cooperation with Russia.
Greater participation in space, particularly between SpaceX and Roscosmos, is a good indicator of what kind of agreements might be made. A Belarusian state company is in charge of aircraft research, cosmonautics plans, and space flights.
Elon Musk’s accomplishments with SpaceX have been praised by the Russian press, and Starlink-related technology cooperation is definitely on the cards. Starlink, which is deployed in Ukraine and provides the Ukrainians with excellent conversation communication in the midst of the conflict, has been a concern for Russia. Putin may enjoy a significant victory if Putin cooperated on Starlink. It’s unfamiliar whether Trump or Witkoff will become willing to take that path.
Some experts believe that Russia’s goal is to take Odesa, particularly former NATO chief General Wesley K. Clark. This would indicate Russia’s victory in the Ukraine conflict, Clark claims. One would assume that the Trump presidency would like to stop this if necessary.
Senior correspondent for Asia Times Stephen Bryen previously held positions as assistant undersecretaries of defense for policy and staff director of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee. This article was initially published on his Weapons and Strategy Substack, and it is republished with authority.