Trump warned  last weekend that Zelensky will own” some problems – major, major problems” if he” tries to back out of the unique earth deal” amidst , reports , that the most recent version of this agreement is quite lopsided.
It is claimed that it supposedly requires Ukraine to deposit half of its revenues from all reference projects and related infrastructure into a US-controlled investment fund, spend all of its debts there, and grant the US the right to make its first offer on new projects and veto over sales of resources to others.
Although Zelensky picked up his renowned fight with Trump and Vance at the White House in late February under these stricter conditions, the US is selling the entire package as a” safety guarantee” to Ukraine.
The argument is that America didn’t allow Russia to endanger these projects, which also include pipes and ports, thus causing the US to begin 2023 levels of military-intelligence assistance and possibly even rise to obtain Russia to back down.
According to the bilateral pacts that it clinched with them all throughout the year, as explained here, Ukraine basically currently enjoys these Article 5-like guarantees, but this proposed agreement gives the US real stakes in deterring or immediately putting an end to hostilities.
The trade-off, however, is that Ukraine has surrender a portion of its monetary autonomy, which is politically unsettling since Zelensky told his fellow citizens that they are fighting to keep their full independence.
Any , agreement, ceasefire, or peace agreement would set with de facto global acknowledgement of Russian control over the five of Ukraine’s pre-2014 territory, which Kiev also claims as its own, to create the impression of a mutual irregular division if Zelensky agreed to Trump’s uneven resource deal.
If Ukraine were forced to hold , absolutely free and fair elections, Zelensky’s political career may end, as well as his predicted reputation as the best “freedom combatant” of the 20th century.
He doesn’t have any other viable options, though, because working with Trump’s up to reach a comparatively better deal with the Brits and/or Europeans won’t produce the” safety guarantees” he’s convinced himself Ukraine needs in order to reach a settlement with Russia.
No one other than the US has a chance to completely oppose Russia, let alone the political will, and that only applies to their investments in a war-torn next nation whose source money is officially dubious.
If Zelensky chooses to pursue a more dillydallying position, Trump may once more temporarily suspend and use military and intelligence aid to Ukraine as leverage while using even harsher terms as retaliation.
In addition, the conflict with Russia would likely continue, making it impossible for Ukraine to develop its resource industry and related infrastructure despite striking a deal with someone else.
The longer the conflict continues, the greater the chance that Russia will also destroy more of those same assets.
However, if Zelensky accepts the most recent agreement, he will also receive the” security guarantees” he needs, which will increase his chances of accepting a ceasefire and, in turn, increase Trump’s influence on Putin by imposing stringent secondary sanctions on Russian oil clients.
Zelensky would risk losing his political career, his anticipated legacy in the eyes of Ukrainians, and a significant portion of the country’s economic sovereignty, but he would avoid a much worse situation than if he had rejected this deal.