The president of Ukraine, Volodymir & nbsp Zelensky, is at war with his generals. He has reprimanded Valery & nbsp, Zaluzhny, the head of the Ukrainian armed forces, who last week told the Economist & ndbhp that” just like in the First World War, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.” There won’t likely be a profound and lovely breakthrough, & nbsp.
Yet the New York Times, a representative of the Ukrainian government, has written about Zelensky’s conflict with his commanders.
Zelensky has insisted that Ukraine does defeat Russia in the battle and expel the Russians from the nation. The massive, now-failed offensive by Kyiv, which was primarily focused in the Zaphorize region, failed with significant losses on the Ukrainian & nbsp, side. Additionally, Zelensky’s resumption of the struggle for Bakhmut, which he started in response to his generals’ concerns, was unsuccessful and resulted in significant casualties and equipment costs.
In the meantime, Zelensky insisted on defending Avdiivka, a tiny town dominated by an enormous booze plant. Coke is used in & nbsp blast furnaces to make steel. In and around the city, the Ukrainians are gradually losing floor. A much less worthy and well-trained regional regiment tasked with holding Avdiivka had to take the place of the 54th Mechanized, which the Ukrainians were forced to move to Kupyansk.
Kupyansk is an important tactical railroad hotspot. Andnbsp, Losing it would make it extremely difficult for Ukraine to move items to its forces near Kharkiv, the second-largest city in the nation. This suggests that Kharkiv may soon be the target of a major conflict.
Zaluzhny’s depiction of World War I and his emphasis on how it ended in a standoff in which both flanks dug deep pits and pounded each other with gun are only partial representations of what transpired during that conflict. The other side of the story is that Germany’s inability to fight due to a lack of military supplies and even food for its soldiers caused it to lose the battle. The scales were tipped when the US allied with the Allies.
Zelensky’s issue is that he didn’t persuade foreign nations to help Ukraine by promoting a standoff. Additionally, Zelensky experienced issues as a result of Zaluzhny’s remarks, which included irrational requirements for technology and weaponry— some of which are simply untrue. Of course, the president wanted more resources and aircraft, but he persisted in saying that with these resources, Ukraine would be able to drive Russia out of the country.
A nice illustration is air power. Ukraine wants 100 to 150 F-16s, according to nbsp. Honestly, nbsp has nowhere to set them and, even if it did, there wouldn’t be many certified aircraft available to fly them. Two F-16s andnbsp that had been disassembled were trucked into Ukraine in early November. There are currently five F-16s in Ukraine, but they need to get assembled again.
It’s unlikely that the two bunches of F-16s that will soon be sent to Ukraine will change anything. & nbsp, These are outdated F-16 models that are difficult to maintain and cannot compete with top-of-the-line Russian aircraft. & nbsp, Worse yet, the transferred F – 16s must be able to operate in a dense Russian air defense battlefield environment for any offensive use. & nbsp, Russia recently added new, mobile air defense systems to its tactically deployed units. & nbsp, There is little chance that the European old F-16s will compete successfully.
( Note: The US needs to exercise caution when using mercenary pilots or thinly veiled Europeans operating aircraft in Ukraine. This ruse might backfire. )
Zelensky is likewise pleading with the US Congress to increase support for Ukraine by billion, including funding for earnings for military personnel and government employees as well as retirement funds. The annual bill alone for & nbsp is$ 13.3 billion.
A total of$ 61.4 billion has been requested for Ukraine, with more than$ 45 billion going toward military supplies. Five or six aviation companies could be purchased with the total amount. Ukraine will reportedly apply that money in a year( though there may be additional calls later in the year ). Aviation carriers have been a part of the ship for 50 years.
Biden had the brilliant idea to combine favorite Jewish help for the battle against Hamas with less well-liked Ukrainian aid, which was unlikely to draw much attention on Capitol Hill. Additionally, Zelensky saw this as a fantastic chance for him to travel to Israel in order to” show solidarity” and ensure that everyone knew that Israel and Ukraine were united at the hip. Additionally, Zelensky was looking for picture opportunities with Netanyahu and Isaac Hertzog, the leader of Israel.
Zelensky believed that Israel may overlook Netanyahu and Israel’s severe censure. Zelensky claimed that the Russia-Iran empire was caused by Israel and the NBP next year. He demanded weapons from Israel, particularly the Iron Dome of Israel. & nbsp,
Israel was reluctant to give Ukraine access to its cutting-edge technologies for fear that Russia would compromise it. Israel also didn’t want to lose any influence it may have had over Russian affairs by causing Russia yet more problems.
It seems that the Jewish side did not approve of a Zelensky visit, which was likely planned by the State Department and White House. & nbsp, Washington, as it frequently does, believes that if it says” jump ,” the response is always,” How high ?”; and meanwhile, Netanyahu claimed that the time was not right for a visit.
Washington redoubled the energy and bent the arm of the Israeli government. However, the visit seems to have been canceled after an Israeli TV channel received word of the & nbsp initiative. & nbsp: From an Israeli perspective, it is not a good idea to link Israeli aid to Ukrainian aid, especially given the Senate’s ongoing debate.
Zelensky seems to have backtracked and put the blame for everything on the Russians. He stated that it was” clear” that the Middle Eastern War” takes aside the target” on November 6. It is, in my opinion, one of the Russian Federation’s objectives.
Even if the visit occurs right away, it didn’t have the advertising value that Washington and Ukraine desired.
Peace Talks
Many covert initiatives are being made to mediate talks between Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, Washington is looking into ways to reach a peace agreement with Russia while pushing for more assistance.
Zelensky, of lessons, and nbsp are against negotiations with Russia. I don’t have any relations with Russians, & nbsp. They are aware of my place, too. That is the stance of both my nation and our persons. We don’t want to talk to jihadists, and since they have nothing to say, I’m not prepared to do so. Jihadists are untrustworthy because they always come up.
A significant issue is how Russia perceives the conflict in Ukraine and its” unique military activity.” In particular, Russia thinks that NATO and Russia are engaged in combat in the Russian conflict. & nbsp, Therefore, a negotiation would inevitably need to include NATO( which, in the end, means Washington ) in addition to Ukraine. & nbsp: The Russians want NATO to leave Ukraine, even though they do want to resolve the territorial concern( and, by extension, protect the Russian-speaking people in Ukraine ).
Conflict with Generals
Zelensky most likely lost the support of his best generals, but is that enough to compel Ukraine’s authority to change? & nbsp, It is challenging to respond to the query. & nbsp, The outcomes on the battlefield have a significant impact. & nbsp,
Avdiivka might be taken by the Russians and Ukrainian forces pushed up in a few days. & nbsp, Changes elsewhere could be detrimental to Ukraine’s army, which is in desperate need of personnel. In addition, & nbsp,
The help of Ukraine’s government and inside intelligence operations is the other factor in the equation. General Kyrylo Budanov is in charge of Ukraine’s military and intelligence operation, known as the Main Directorate of Intelligence( GUR MO ). The SSU, or non-military intellect, is the successor to the Russian KGB. It is led by Vasyl Malyuk at nbsp.
If Zelensky is actually in danger, it might be Budanov, and any ally he forms with the Ukrainian generals may either force him to consent to talks with Russia or result in his replacement. & nbsp,
It is obvious that the present course of events is unfavorable for both Zelensky and Ukraine. Soldiers on the battlefield now know this, nbsp. Does Zelensky veer off course or wait for the inevitable, nbsp?
Stephen Bryen, who oversaw the Near East Subcommittee of the
As a lieutenant director of security, the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and nbsp
is currently a senior fellow at Yorktown Institute and the & nbsp, Center for Security Policy.
His Substack, Weapons and Strategy was the original subject of this article. Asia Times is republishing it with their consent, nbsp.