Now that the dust has settled on Turkey’s hotly contested presidential election and Recep Tayyip Erdogan begins his third decade in power, Ankara’s relationship with its southern neighbor Syria has come into sharp focus.
Questions about Syrian refugees, Turkey’s military involvement in Syria, and the potential for normalized relations with President Bashar al-Assad’s government had hung over the election.
While the result shed light on Turkey’s approach to the crucial issues, uncertainties persist regarding the ongoing Russian-brokered talks between Ankara and Damascus and their trajectory amid the evolving political landscape.
Erdogan’s triumph and Syria’s reinstatement in the Arab League have both positive and negative ramifications for each side, making it a challenge to predict the outcome of these talks.
After years of diplomatic efforts, Moscow successfully orchestrated talks between Ankara and Damascus. The negotiations unfolded in multiple stages, beginning with meetings between the intelligence chiefs of Turkey and Syria and gradually expanding to involve the defense ministers.
Despite encountering some delays and adjustments, the talks recently reached a significant milestone in Moscow as they were elevated to the foreign-ministerial level, coinciding with the start of Turkey’s elections. The latest round concluded with an agreement to maintain high-level contacts and engage in technical discussions aimed at enhancing Syria-Turkey relations.
Hakan Fidan reportedly led talks between intelligence chiefs for the Turkish side last year. On June 3, Erdogan appointed Fidan as his new foreign minister in a possible sign that the sides were on track for further rapprochement.
However, the road to a comprehensive deal remains full of obstacles. Significant disparities persist in the demands of both nations as well as the sequencing of their implementation.
Turkey’s top priority is the dismantling of the Kurdish-led administration in northeastern Syria and the repatriation of Syrian refugees residing within its borders. In contrast, Assad insists on the complete withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syrian territory as a prerequisite for engaging in discussions.
New reality for Assad
Since the latest round of talks, several significant developments have taken place. Erdogan’s victory has eased some domestic pressures. In his effort to show progress in repatriating Syrian refugees and mitigate a potential backlash from his base, Erdogan had expressed eagerness to meet with Assad before the elections.
Assad, however, was keenly aware of Erdogan’s motives, proceeding cautiously and deliberately to strengthen his bargaining power. Despite pressure from Moscow, Assad remained resolute in not aiding Erdogan through a potential deal. The Syrian leader’s preference was for a new administration in Turkey that would restore ties with favorable terms for Damascus.
With Erdogan securing another five-year term, Assad may reassess his wait-and-see strategy and consider his options in light of this new reality. Recent statements indicate a shift in Turkey’s position, with Erdogan’s spokesman saying that leadership-level talks would require noticeable steps taken by the Syrian side first.
While Erdogan’s victory has strengthened his position, Syria’s return to the Arab League may reduce Assad’s willingness to make concessions. The warm welcome Assad received at the league’s May summit solidified Syria’s reintegration into the Arab community, diminishing the importance of restoring relations with Turkey in a bid to break the regime’s diplomatic isolation.
Moreover, Turkey’s active engagement in conflict zones such as Iraq, Libya and Syria has strained relations with certain Arab states, prompting them to seek ways to counterbalance Ankara’s growing regional influence.
While there may not be a direct call for Assad to adopt a more assertive position against Turkey’s presence in Syria, it is expected that he will proceed with caution to avoid any negative repercussions on his relationships with Arab states.
This introduces an additional level of complexity to the Ankara-Damascus talks, a dynamic that was not as prominent in the past. Although it is worth noting that the ongoing trend of de-escalation in the region could motivate certain Arab states to act as mediators between Turkey and Syria, potentially altering the situation in the opposite direction.
Russia is widely regarded as the pivotal player capable of aligning the shifting dynamics and facilitating a deal. However, thus far, Moscow’s success has been limited to getting people to the negotiation table.
While there is a possibility that President Vladimir Putin could leverage the new realities to achieve more substantial progress, it would require significant resources and attention from Moscow. It is uncertain whether Russia is willing to take on such an overwhelming role at this time, given its focus on the war in Ukraine.
It is also important to acknowledge that even if Russia fully commits to this endeavor, its efforts may still face challenges. Assad’s improved relations with Arab states have bolstered his maneuverability, particularly in relation to his allies.
This growing support network could embolden Assad to resist pressure from Russia, especially when significant compromises are demanded.
Unless these shifting dynamics align perfectly, the talks between Turkey and Syria are destined to remain a staged performance, lacking true commitment to achieve significant progress beyond mere camera-friendly gestures.
While no immediate military escalations are anticipated between the two nations, the Syrian and Turkish soldiers deployed on the ground will continue to be treated as pawns on the negotiating chessboard.
This article was provided by Syndication Bureau, which holds copyright.
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