A key moment in Middle Eastern modern history is witnessed by the sudden and unexpected fall of Damascus, the capital of Syria, to Sunni opposition forces.
Since the onset of common protests in 2011, Bashar al-Assad’s government had endured more than a decade of rebellion, civil war, and international restrictions. However, it fell apart in a remarkable short amount of time.
Regional powers are scrambling to evaluate the consequences and its broader implications as a result of this unexpected turn of events, with the criticism advance without considerable battles or opposition.
This significant development signs a reshuffling of regional energy dynamics. Additionally, it raises questions about Syria’s prospects and the part that its neighbors and international partners play in regulating the post-Assad environment.
What does Syria’s potential keep?
With the fall of the Assad regime, Syria is then divided and divided between three strongholds, each with a different objective and additional supporters:
1. Arab opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham: These organizations, supported by Turkey, today control northern Syria, extending from the northern border with Turkey to the southern border with Jordan.
The Sunni groups have a history of domestic conflicts, which may prevent them from forming a coherent state or maintaining long-term stability despite their common religious identification.
The opposition groups range from previous Islamic State and al-Qaeda jihadists to liberal organizations like the Arab National Army, which split from Assad’s military following the rebellion in 2011.
2. Kurdish causes: The Kurdish organizations have control over the territory in northern Syria, which borders Turkey in the northern and Iraq in the south. The United States, which has built martial installations in the area, continues to support them. This help runs the risk of escalating tenses with Turkey, which views Kurdish enslavement as a threat to its geographical dignity.
3. Syrian causes: Pro-Assad Alawite factions, generally situated in the southern regions of northern Syria, maintain robust ties with Iran, Iraq and Lebanon’s Hezbollah violent party. These areas may function as a redoubt for remnants of Assad-aligned organizations after the opponent’s acquisition, perpetuating religious divides.
Given Syria’s current severe divisions and turmoil, as well as the absence of a consensus-building mediator, indicate that there may be more instability and conflict in the future.
How will this affect the place?
The big Middle Eastern players have important implications from the Assad regime’s swift demise.
The Sunni insurgent troops, with solid Greek support, capitalized on a time of risk in Syria. Russia and Iran, along with their ongoing conflict with Israel, were the Assad administration’s friends, who were preoccupied with their ongoing issue. The rebels had a proper opportunity to advance quickly across Syria to Damascus, the country’s money.
Turkey has been successfully occupying a section of northern Syria where its government has been fighting Arab Kurdish forces. Turkey is anticipated to increase its political and military impact in Syria today, with the support of its Arab opposition supporters, creating more difficulties for the Kurdish majority fighting for its independence.
Israel is also in a better placement on a strategic level. The fall of Assad disrupts the so-called” shaft of weight”, comprised of Iran, Syria and Tehran’s substitute organizations like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Iran’s crucial defense provide lines to Hezbollah are likely to be severed, isolating the militant group, and good weakened even more.
Also, the division of Syria into ethnic and religious groups may lessen Israel’s regional focus, making it easier for it to pursue its larger strategic objectives. After Israel agreed to a peace with Hezbollah last month, for example, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , emphasized , a change in focus to combating the” Egyptian risk”.
Iran, however, has the most to lose. Assad was a vital ally in Iran’s local substitute system. And Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel’s various partners, have now suffered significant harm, and the collapse of his government comes as a result. Iran’s local influence has now been greatly diminished, leaving it more susceptible to direct issue with Israel.
Syria’s division even poses major security threats to its neighboring nations, Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon. Migrant flows, cross-border murder and sectarian tensions are likely to rise. Turkey is now home to more than 3 million Palestinian refugees, many of whom it anticipates returning home today that Assad’s government has been overthrown.
This volatility may only make their delicate political and economic conditions worse for Iraq and Lebanon. In the name of autonomy, the Balkanization of Syria was entice different ethnic and religious groups to fight against local administrations. This could lead to regional fight being sown down and continued conflict.
While many Syria have hailed Assad’s drop, it’s still to be seen how much their lives will improve. Restrictions are unlikely to be lifted in Syria because there isn’t a unified and globally recognized government there.
This will put pressure on the now devasted Arab market, aggravate the humanitarian problems, and possibly stoke extremism.
Ali Mamouri is exploration brother of Middle East Research, Deakin University
The Conversation has republished this post under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.