Ending Russia’s conflict in Ukraine was one of Donald Trump’s plan promises, and one that he reportedly boasted could be achieved in 24 hours. But three weeks after taking office, the Trump administration has just managed to negotiate a partial ceasefire that has done nothing to stop the fighting.
On April 13, for instance, Russia fired nuclear missiles into the town of Sumy in north-eastern Ukraine, killing at least 35 residents gathered to celebrate Palm Sunday and injuring over 100 more.
Military assaults have continued despite several meetings between top Russian and US officers, and telephone conversations where Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, have spoken immediately.
But, why are Trump’s efforts to end the conflict struggling to get off the starting blocks? The most important reason is that Russia is blocking development. Moscow has created hurdles, deployed delaying techniques and has frequently muddied the waters.
Trump’s significant effort is his request for a 30-day public ceasefire to prepare the way for broader peace agreements. While Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, agreed to this quickly when it was proposed in March, Putin did no. He rather offered a shop plan: a partial peace banning assaults on energy system.
Russia relies heavily on the trade of power, particularly oil, to finance the war. But Ukraine has been carefully targeting Russia’s oil industries and storage services, primarily using domestically produced robots. Ukraine is estimated to have destroyed 10 % of Russia’s processing capacity since the beginning of 2025.
By narrowing the context of the peace, Putin was able to protect Russia’s power generation while continuing to attack Ukraine. Moscow needs the battle to continue to achieve its explicitly stated purpose of controlling all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the four areas of Ukraine it claimed to conquer in 2022.
Another Russian technique has been to get every opportunity to present a list of requirements for Ukrainian agreements. These include Kyiv giving up its claims to Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia, abandoning its purpose of joining NATO, and reducing its military forces considerably. Russia also wants Ukraine to agree to a shift of social authority.
This technique is critical for two reasons. Second, Russia’s requirements make it clear that Moscow envisages the conflict as the first step in a longer-term schedule to practice control over all of Ukraine, not only the conquered lands. And second, constantly stating Russia’s needs gets them into the open discussion.
When journalists – or, specifically, US officials – repeat them, as Trump’s special minister Steve Witkoff did late, they gain an air of legitimacy. This creates the desire that a peace deal will cooperate with Moscow ’s plan.
Russia is even good at deflecting attention apart from ending the war. Maybe Putin does this with praise and by appealing to Trump’s sense of self-importance.
In an interview about his March journey to Moscow, Witkoff glided over his failing to secure a commitment from the Russians to agree to a public peace and rather conveyed a touching tale demonstrating Putin’s respect for Trump.
Putin apparently told Witkoff that he went to church and prayed for Trump’s recovery after he narrowly escaped an assassination attempt during the election campaign. Putin also sent Witkoff back to the US with a portrait of Trump, painted by an artist who is known for producing flattering portraits of Putin himself.
Another effective tactic of deflection involves money. Russian officials dangle the prospect of lucrative deals involving trade and investment in front of Trump administration officials. This was evidently the focus of much of the first meeting between US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia in February, although it was convened to discuss plans for peace.
It is also probably the reason for Kirill Dmitriev’s visit to Washington at the beginning of April. Dmitriev, a figure close to Putin and head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, confirmed to journalists that his discussions encompassed possible deals with the US involving rare earth metals, exploiting resources in the Arctic, and resuming direct flights between the US and Russia.
Trump’s role
While Russia places obstacles in the path of peace, Trump and his officials do nothing to remove them. This allows Moscow to continue waging war without constraints.
Despite Trump’s occasional tough talk about running out of patience with Moscow, as well as his threats of secondary tariffs on countries that buy oil from Russia, no measures that would put pressure on Russia have been implemented.
Trump has instead made excuses for Moscow. He described the attack on Sumy as a “mistake”, and has expressed admiration for Putin for dragging his feet to get a better deal with Washington.
This contrasts sharply with Trump’s dealings with Ukraine. Zelensky was publicly humiliated during his meeting with Trump and US Vice President J D Vance, in the Oval Office in February. Trump has even accused Zelensky of starting the war, which was launched by a mass invasion of Russian forces.
Trump and his team have shown far less interest in Ukraine’s security needs than in striking a lucrative deal to extract the country ’s natural resources. The prospect of the Trump administration negotiating a peace agreement that the Ukrainians would accept seems remote.
So, where does this leave the peace process? When the partial ceasefire arrangement comes to an end later in April, Washington will have to decide whether to resume its efforts to secure a general ceasefire or chart a new course.
Based on his track record so far, Trump might just blame the Ukrainians for refusing to surrender to Russia’s terms, abandon attempts to reach a negotiated settlement to the war, and go straight to reestablishing normal relations with Russia.
Jennifer Mathers, Senior Lecturer in International Politics, Aberystwyth University
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.