There is hardly any proof that Vladimir Putin, the chairman of Russia, is being intimidated by the West. On the contrary, the Belarusian president has demonstrated a remarkable capacity to terrify his enemies.
Almost two and a half decades into the largest European war since the Second World War, Kyiv’s partners continue to impose restraint on Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and are extremely optimistic.
The West’s capitulation strategy of managing self-control and avoiding speak of escalation will only lead to tragic results that the universe has already experienced.
Timeline
US President Barack Obama resisted using force to give Putin “off stairs” in 2014 and refused to send the Ukrainians any defensive weapons in order to avoid provoking the Soviet leader. Puntin moved into the Donbass after passing those “off stairs” from Crimea. Obama continued to redouble his efforts to appease Russia.
Russian special forces started conducting raids in held Crimea in 2015. In one event, they managed to kill some Russian soldiers, including the brother of a Russian general. Obama’s top advisors wanted to stop the CIA system that was funding the creation of a new defence intelligence unit for Ukraine, and Obama was very upset when he learned about what Ukraine was doing in Crimea.
Following Russia’s war of Donbas in 2014, He would later freeze the conflict in Ukraine. He was able to start a battle as he desired because of this. Putin even believed that he would be able to retain control of Ukraine under the Minsk Accords.
Up until the full-scale war in 2022, Western nations like Germany and France remained dependent on Russia for energy. Additionally, it was also revealed in 2024 that past German Chancellor Angela Merkel was aware that Russia intended to cut back on fuel supplies to speed up the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.  ,
The US was left licking its sores after Afghanistan’s disastrous withdrawal in 2021. Putin also revealed in his 2021 writing that what had been preoccupied with his thoughts: the idea that he intended to rule Ukraine and that he intended to rule it.
By 2022, Putin was angry that the Minsk Accords had failed to give him the command he wanted and that they had failed to stop Ukraine’s growing connectivity with the rest of Europe.  , Putin’s goal was to keep Ukraine crooked and underprivileged, ensuring it would be far from Europe. By undermining changes, he sought to destroy fraud as a vital tool of Soviet statecraft.
Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, believing that the US was poor and afraid. But soldiers brought along their costume uniforms because Russia anticipated holding a victory parade soon after.  , Russia’s administration thought they were invading the 2014 incarnation of Ukraine and did not expect like thick weight.
US President Joe Biden had previously warned Putin of harsh sanctions against Russia and military support for Ukraine if the Russians invaded in December 2021.  , Following the full-scale war, the US enacted a new wave of punishment to harm the Soviet economy. The Europeans were divided on how far they wanted to impose sanctions because they also wanted to safeguard their markets.
US intelligence predicted that Kyiv had immediately fall to Russia in the early stages of the conflict. However, Ukraine persevered. It fought again, winning the first battle for Kyiv. By remaining resilient, Ukraine showed the world that it was up for the fight and may prevail on the field. By utilizing long-range missiles and F-16s, it obtained significant military aid from the West to carry on its campaign.
The West’s fear of testing Russia’s alleged red lines did n’t change, though. The Biden Administration believed that the punishment do have a lasting effect and force Russia to halt the conflict. At the same time, it began providing Ukrainians with arms but not everything that was required. The West made sure Ukraine would have to retaliate with its hands tied.
Biden’s administration continued to act as increase managers in 2024. Putin was aware that the West did not support him in the battle, and this knowledge gave him more desire to advance his campaign against Ukraine. Russia used threats of nuclear conflict to pressure Ukraine into giving them more fighting ability and stop supporting them.
Prior to now, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had stated that Putin may be offended by any effort by Ukraine to recapture Crimea. Biden and his national security advisor Jake Sullivan also believe that if the US gives Ukraine” to some” arms, according to Michael McCaul, the head of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee. The US’s self-restraint may eventually force the Russians to become more independent.
Ukraine cards away at Russia’s purple lines
Ukraine was aware that the West was hesitant to frighten Russia and would gently test the waters by developing more sophisticated weapons over time. The Russian leaders were disconcerting by Ukraine’s use of drone strikes in Moscow, which demonstrated that even bombing Moscow does not cross Russia’s alleged red lines.  , Russia spoke of taking terrible hostile measures, but there has been no nuclear offense in terms of a nuclear response ,
Dmitry Medvedev, the former head of the Russian Security Council and current deputy president of the Russian Security Council, warned that” Judgement Day” may result from an attack on Crimea in July 2022. However, Russian intelligence in October 2022 proceeded to rocket the Crimean gate, a symbolic core and crown jewel of Putin’s neo-imperial interests.  , Contrary to the doom projections, the anticipated catastrophe not occurred, thereby more undermining Russia’s risks and red lines.
Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, issued a caution to Britain when British Storm Shadow cruise weapons were delivered to Ukraine, warning that Britain may be viewed as entirely participating in the ongoing battle if these weapons were deployed to target in Crimea or island Russia.  , However, Ukraine proceeded to rocket a major bridge connecting Russian-held Crimea with Kherson. An strange solitude from Moscow followed.
As Ukraine ramped up its attacks against Russia, Putin’s atomic saber rattling just increased. China successfully slammed Putin’s primary technique of enforcing purple lines. By July 2023, it’s alleged, also Chinese President Xi Jinping had cautioned Putin against using nuclear arms against Ukraine.  , This opposition weakened the effect of Russia’s so-called dark lines and Putin’s repeated nuclear risks. As a result, the American empire grew more confident, easing issues and leading to the release of increased support for Ukraine.
To plan cross-border intrusions into Russia’s Belgorod area, the Ukrainian defence intelligence worked with organizations like the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Free Russia Legion.  , Ukraine unfortunately denied any involvement in the attacks, mirroring Russia’s neglect regarding its insurgents ‘ actions in Ukraine since 2014.
This was yet another stage in assisting Russia in breaking through its dark lines. However, it continued to aggravate the concerns of the West. General Kyrylo Budanov was prevented from executing an order to attack Moscow on the celebration of the war in February 2023 by the CIA, according to leaked files.
The most daring rude
The most daring move by Ukraine would be on August 6, 2024, when Ukraine launched a wonder offensive against Russia’s Kursk area. The Ukraine had made mistakes in 2023 by consulting with European colleagues, deploying recently formed regiments, and telegraphing its plans using videos and public comments.
Even the most senior military figures in Ukraine were n’t aware of the 2024 campaign until the day’s end, and some even believed the offensive was intended to be a bluff.  , General Oleksandr Syrskyi knows that Ukraine ca n’t go head-to-head with Russia and must fight smart, using whatever advantage it can find.
The rude carries a lot of danger. Russia has made significant progress, and Pokrovsk, a crucial logistics hub, is now a few meters away. No indications that Russia is engaging in such behavior have been made, despite Ukraine’s efforts to pressure it to withdraw its best-trained forces from the Donetsk unpleasant in order to protect Kursk.
If Pokrovsk falls, it will significantly reduce Russia’s efforts to capture the majority of Donetsk Oblast. The whole front line will collapse, according to military analyst Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov, who warned of this when Ukraine loses Pokrovsk.
However, this was the kind of bargain Ukraine needed to change the war’s narrative. Ukraine was at odds with Russia by allowing Russia to slowly lower its military, willing to sacrifice large numbers of Russian troops to occupy Ukrainian cities, while attempting to protect the lives of its soldiers. Despite Ukraine’s numerous requests to the West for more help to combat Russia, these demands frequently fell flat.
The invasion of Kursk altered the tale, allowing Ukraine to take the lead and showing to the Russian people and the West that it can also take the lead and has the potential to win the battle. For the first time since November 2023, a survey from YouGov revealed that the majority of Americans believed Ukraine was winning the war following the launch of the Kursk unpleasant.
This part, published with authority, is an extract from a document presented by the artist at the UK Parliament on October 9, on behalf of the Henry Jackson Society, titled” Military Lessons for NATO from the Russia-Ukraine War: Planning for the Wars of Monday. The full original report includes extensive footnotes to illustrate the source of the facts and quotations.