During his visit to northeast Russia this week, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un apparently pledged his” total and absolute help” to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Given that North Korea is thought to have a lot of ammunition that can be used with Russian weapon, experts speculate that this could be ammunition for Russia’s conflict in Ukraine.
Given that North Korean munitions has poor dependability and precision and that Russia also needs to move it thousands of miles to the front, it may only be of minimal assistance to Russia.
What does Kim, however, need? As usual, North Korea needs meals, manure, and possibly other forms of humanitarian assistance. Kim probably wouldn’t travel all the way to Russia just to help with meals, though.
The nuclear weapons and missile system of North Korea is at a turning point.
Although outdoor identification is not possible, North Korea’s nuclear weapons appear to be effective. Between 2006 and 2017, the program carried out six nuclear checks. Additionally, North Korea has tested nuclear weapons that are becoming more advanced.
However, it is unknown how effective these weapons are against anti-ballistic missile systems, how much the nuclear weapons on top of them have been reduced, and how regularly and precisely they can be launched.
The two failed spy satellite launches by North Korea in the last few decades indicate that the country has stability issues.
Theoretically, Russia may provide North Korea with missile systems know-how based on decades of experience in weapon development as well as cutting-edge satellite systems. After years of effort, this might increase North Korea’s detective satellite program.
Russia may also be able to provide underwater engineering to North Korea, providing the country with a different way to launch nuclear weapons. According to reports, North Korea is currently working on ballistic missiles launched from submarines.
It’s possible that developments in hero and missile systems will force Japan and South Korea to bolster their own deterrents. In spite of alleged threats from China and North Korea, the two are now enhancing their military capabilities and intensifying their assistance with one another and the United States. Therefore, it’s possible that this trend won’t change.
Industrial-scale government assistance is something that Russia most truly cannot offer to North Korea. Russia’s biggest failure is that the conflict with Ukraine is depleting its supply of weapons and ammunition much more quickly than it can produce them.
Additionally, sanctions have more limited its ability to produce cutting-edge, high-tech weapons( though some imports of European, advanced tools and materials are also smuggling in through neighboring nations ).
Russia even provides North Korea with a solution to its proper conundrum. Some nations severed their business relations with North Korea after the UN Security Council imposed restrictions on the country over its nuclear programme in 2009. As a result, the North became uneasily reliant on China.
In order to lessen its vulnerability to Chinese pressure, North Korea has strategically sought to reestablish relationships with other nations. This strategy included a series of summits with South Korea, the US, and Russia in 2018 and 2019, but North Korea received much in the way of tangible advantages.
This plan is continued at Kim’s most recent mountain with Putin in eastern Russia, but circumstances have changed. Kim might now be able to effectively overthrow the UN sanctions program.
Fear of US secondary sanctions and being cut off from US dollars deals is the main obstacle for China, and more importantly, Chinese businesses, in providing technology and various sanctioned goods to North Korea. Even though it hasn’t completely stopped Foreign assistance to North Korea, this has limited it.
Russia no longer cares about either of these repercussions for providing assistance to North Korea because it is now subject to Western sanctions.
The only restrictions on Russia are the degree to which it does not want to participate in the development of nuclear weapons and missiles and its reluctance to establish a superior nuclear-armed nation on its own borders.
Putin stated that all options for assistance were on the table during his meeting with Kim this week, including possibly assisting North Korea with its dish program. Naturally, this would violate both Russia’s unique obligations to the Missile Technology Control Regime and UN punishment.
Perhaps even more significant, North Korea now has another, possibly more reliable way to get around UN sanctions on all commodities, not only military technology, if Russia no longer cares about them.
North Korea’s imports and exports in recent years have been restricted to ship-to-ship payments via land and sea roads that pass through China. And Beijing has stopped doing business with the North even though it has wanted to in the history.
The rail line between Vladivostok and North Korea, as well as shipping lanes between North and eastern Russia, which have previously been involved in North Korean fuel smuggling functions, are all made possible by the pursuit of Russia as a fresh financial partner.
Justin Hastings, University of Sydney Lecturer in Comparative Politics and International Relations
Disclosure: The Australian Research Council provided financing for the author.
Under a Creative Commons license, this post has been republished from The Conversation. read the article in its entirety.