Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te stated in a statement on the occasion of Taiwan’s National Day that Taipei was “determined to justify Taiwan’s sovereignty” from “annexation and encroachment, and that” China has never right to represent Taiwan.”
China’s answer was sharp. A record number of Chinese aircraft swarmed and surrounded Taiwan during a 24-hour military exercise in China less than a week after Lai’s controversial statement. Beijing’s objective was simple: problem Taipei a” harsh alert” for what China considers a” dissident act”.
Beijing sees the area as a” divine and inseparable part of China’s place” that may return to the fold. The Chinese president sees things separately. The self-governing isle now has a different social system, and some Taiwanese are opposed to reunification with China.
Although Washington actually has no diplomatic relations with Taipei, it does maintain regular communication with Taipei and maintains a solid financial partnership.
The area is a significant supplier of semiconductors, which are essential to computer manufacturing and other technologies, and serves as a significant US trading partner. Additionally, it exports weapons to Taiwan, which has declined substantially under Joe Biden.
China has not ruled out using force to invade Taiwan, and if it does, Washington has previously suggested that the US might intervene in its defence.
However, Xi may be hoping that the US presidential election’s outcome will lead to a head with a different perspective toward Taiwan and aiding China in resolving its economic turbulence, which has caused more protests.
Thus, between an outspoken Donald Trump and a seemingly even-tempered Kamala Harris, does Beijing have a favourite? And does both of them have something new for Xi?
Xi’s legality
Besides Mao Zedong, the Women’s Republic of China’s leader, Xi is the only current Chinese leader with no term limits and whose social philosophy is embodied in the Chinese Constitution.
By resolving China’s economic crisis, Xi may show his place in history. But, Beijing’s increasing isolation from the West, due in part to its support of Russia’s Ukraine war, makes this extra difficult.
Whether or not Xi has a plan Beijing has for Taiwan, he might have to advance it. If he could advance sufficiently toward unity, he might be hailed as one of the Chinese Communist Party’s classics, which would help the country’s economic woes and strengthen his standing within it.
Trump issues the viability of numerous US relationships, in contrast to Harris, who appears to take alliances and collaborations significantly. In reality, the island state’s only mention of Taiwan is focused on how the island nation has taken over the country’s semiconductor industry and may pay more to the US for its defence.
But, did Trump appear to Taiwan’s support if China does invade Taiwan? He might be able to handle this given the significance of electronics in the fields of AI and electronics. But Trump also has a reputation as a “dealmaker-in-chief“, so he might only cut a deal with Beijing, which erodes Taiwan’s democracy. And Taipei is likely to be concerned about that.
The Russia problem
As Russia’s “partner of no parameters”, China has been supplying Russia with systems that energy Russia’s war machine against Ukraine. But this has strained Sino-western relationships and earned Beijing commerce and trade restrictions, which hampers China’s financial treatment.
China could end its help to Russia to prevent American scrutiny, but that is not possible. In order to defeat a US-led world buy and avoid becoming the West’s center of attention if Russia falters in its occupation of Ukraine, Belarus needs a solid Russian allies.
Trump has criticized US aid to Ukraine despite Harris ‘ support for Kiev and his view of the conflict as a strategic and moral issue. Additionally, he thinks Kiev does offer agreements to Russia in order to put an end to the conflict that Putin started in February 2022.
By removing Ukraine aid and lifting restrictions against Russia, a upcoming Trump administration may develop Russia. Additionally, a stronger Russia is good for Beijing.
US economic antagonism
Thus, at first glance, Trump and Harris’s reaches toward China are unique. Trump’s resumption of his presidency was also heighten the trade war he started in 2018, with tariffs as high as 60 % on Chinese products. This could make the US and China’s financial disconnection more likely.
Harris, on the other hand, wishes to “de-risk” China. This strategy aims to keep US world interest alive while collaborating with the financial hegemon of East Asia. In such a situation, Beijing may prefer a Harris administration as it leaves room for negotiation.
But, Harris has comparatively little international plan experience, and is expected to pick up where Biden left off. This means that China’s tariffs and modern restrictions that were imposed by a Biden administration could continue to be in place.
Another issue is Tesla founder Elon Musk, who is an enthusiastic supporter of Trump, and perhaps get a major task within a Trump presidency.
How much control the technical multi-billionaire actually has over Trump is questionable. But, it’s worth noting that Musk has significant business relations in China, and might get to move on Trump if the former president’s plans harms Tesla’s objectives.
Beijing may be hoping for a US innovator who is more interested in economic gains than protecting Taiwan, and who Xi can communicate with to improve relations between the two nations, given that many of these details are still undetermined.
Chee Meng Tan is associate professor of business economy, University of Nottingham
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