The ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and the coalition Bhumjaithai Party may be trading places after the next general election if predictions about the outcome of the polls are anything to go by.
Several political experts have forecast a big win for Bhumjaithai, now a mid-sized party, come May 7. The victory could double the more than 60 MPs the party currently commands.
That would, in effect, catapult Bhumjaithai to the third or even second spot on the House-seat tally, behind the Pheu Thai Party, which is likely to garner the most.
However, there is no telling if Pheu Thai can realise its ambitious goal of securing a landslide victory by picking up more than 250 seats or half the number that is up for grabs in the House of Representatives.
A source agreed that Pheu Thai banks largely on public sentiment — buoyed by what critics believed was a growing dislike of the government’s handling of the economy by some sections of voters — and the strongholds of red supporters pushing the party past the 250-seat threshold.
The source said, however, that Pheu Thai has managed to maintain its strength across large swaths of the Northeast and the North. These are two of the richest regions in constituencies.
The source argued that eight years of Prayut Chan-o-cha rule are enough to motivate some people to ponder other options. They are prone to be swayed by the promises of an economic shot in the arm, given to them day in and day out through social media platforms which have proven to be readily accessible channels for receiving often unfiltered information.
The source said the odds are thought to be stacked up against coalition parties, except Bhumjaithai. The PPRP may have had a credible chance of giving Pheu Thai a run for its money if Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha had not decided to part company with it and turned to the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party.
The estrangement, according to academics, has emasculated the PPRP as many of its seasoned politicians and former MPs have defected to the UTN, Bhumjaithai or even Pheu Thai.
The source said if Gen Prayut had stayed with the PPRP, the party would have benefitted from the political “synergy” afforded by Gen Prayut’s corruption-free image and the extraordinary connections in politics and the finesse of Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, who leads the PPRP. Not to mention the two generals being bound by their longstanding brother-in-arms ties.
However, a source close to the matter said Gen Prayut and Gen Prawit might have put on a show when they appeared together for photo opportunities at casual events. The poll rivalry is straining their relations, and the cracks may have already widened.
Despite the two generals’ insistence that they remain on speaking terms, the possibility of Pheu Thai and the PPRP forging a post-poll coalition is dreaded by Gen Prayut, which has sowed the seed of distrust between the two generals.
Neither Pheu Thai nor the PPRP has publicly ruled out such an alliance, with some political figures speculating hard on an unlikely marriage of convenience between the two.
The source said Gen Prayut breaking away from the PPRP and moving to the UTN is not likely to propel either to large-party status at the next polls.
The PPRP, in particular, may be relegated from the second-ranked party in the previous election with 116 House seats to a mid-sized one capturing around 50 or fewer next time around.
The status of a mid-sized party, with 51 House seats, belonged to Bhumjaithai in the previous poll before it grew into the 60-plus seat party that it is now.
However, Bhumjaithai, which has amassed some might and means by sticking with the coalition government for many years, has steadily welcomed to its fold electable defectors from other parties.
It has, in the process, expanded its influence into areas held steadfastly by the likes of Pheu Thai, the PPRP and the Democrat Party.
That said, Bhumjaithai is well-positioned to grab the second-largest party spot, overtaking the PPRP by a long way.
But according to the source, place trading may be advantageous to the PPRP if there was substance to any Pheu Thai-PPRP deal.
Pheu Thai would prefer a medium-sized party to a large one to do business with. A coalition partner with too many seats would have excessive negotiating power over the allocation of cabinet posts, something a ruling party tends to find difficult to deal with.
Faction still hedging its bets
With key Sam Mitr group figure Anucha Nakasai tipped to move from the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) to the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party, fellow member Suriya Jungrungreangkit has made a vow — “Khun Somsak [Thepsutin] and I will never leave. We’ll stick with the PPRP.”
Somsak: Could rejoin Pheu Thai
All three are key members of the Sam Mitr (Three Allies) faction that drew public attention in June 2018 following a meeting between Mr Somsak, Mr Suriya and a former Pheu Thai MP for Loei, Preecha Rengsomboonsuk in the northeastern province.
The group later announced it would support Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha becoming prime minister ahead of the 2019 general election and was viewed as the regime’s recruiting arm.
In November 2018, Mr Somsak and Mr Suriya led the grouping of more than 60 politicians from various parties to apply for PPRP membership, with many being former Pheu Thai MPs from the Northeast, considered Pheu Thai’s main stronghold.
Fast forward to this year, the PPRP under the leadership of Deputy Prime Minister Gen Prawit Wongsuwon has been rocked by high-profile defections. However, the Sam Mitr faction managed to keep observers guessing until news about Mr Anucha’s migration to the UTN leaked out.
Some analysts believe that the pledge of others to stay with the PPRP is not a done deal, and as long as a House dissolution is not called, its core members still have time to ponder their future and get the best political deal for their group.
According to some analysts, it is likely that Mr Somsak, who is the justice minister, may eventually rejoin Pheu Thai.
A highly placed source in Pheu Thai told the Bangkok Post that Mr Somsak has already talked with “the man in Dubai” — a reference to ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra — and party secretary-general Prasert Chantararuanthong about his possible return.
“It is believed they haven’t reached a deal yet. The prime minister is expected to dissolve the House rather than let it run its course, so the 90-day membership rule won’t be a problem. There’s still time to think,” said the source.
While observers are split over the closeness of the bond between Gen Prayut and Gen Prawit following Gen Prayut’s departure from the PPRP, with some seeing it as a sign of a deepening rift, they seem to be on the same page when it comes to Mr Anucha’s exit.
According to analysts, the group has already worked out its steps, and Mr Anucha’s departure from the PPRP is part of a group strategy and its policy of “joining the winning side”. Members are ready to pull out of the group and switch to any party that stands a better chance of winning in the next polls, only to reunite if and when the parties come to power.
“The group doesn’t fall apart or break up. Their political separation isn’t natural. They are separated not because they’re done with each other. They split today only to regroup later. They have done the maths, and this is the best chance of securing a cabinet seat quota in the future,” said one observer.
However, the Pheu Thai source said party members do not know whether Mr Somsak will defect to the party but noted that Pheu Thai is going from strength to strength.
“He [Mr Somsak] is an election strategist, so he’ll choose what is best for him,” said the source.
A seasoned politician, Mr Somsak first entered politics by becoming an MP for Sukhothai at the age of 28 in 1983.
In 1990, he became public health minister in Gen Suchinda Kraprayoon’s administration, which resulted from a coup. He later served as a deputy transport minister during the Chuan Leekpai government and returned as public health minister in Chavalit Yongchaiyudh’s cabinet. He joined Thai Rak Thai in 2001 and became a party-list MP. He held several ministerial portfolios under Thaksin, including industry, agriculture, tourism and sports, and labour.
When Thai Rak Thai was dissolved over electoral fraud in 2007, Mr Somsak was among 111 party executives banned from politics for five years. After the ban was lifted in 2012, Mr Somsak returned to Pheu Thai and served as an adviser to the now-fugitive former prime minister — Yingluck Shinawatra.
So, one could say there’s no love lost between Mr Somsak and Pheu Thai, according to the source.