Vietnam has slowly increased its military presence in the South China Sea, putting its territorial claims in line with China’s island-building strategies in the hotly contested sea area.
The disputed Spratly Islands have recently experienced high-resolution satellite imagery that shows a tenfold increase in artificial land in the area over the past three years, according to the , Wall Street Journal ( WSJ).
The WSJ report mentions the potential growth of Vietnam through the development of planes, protective tunnels, and holds for martial use. It points out that Vietnam’s actions are in line with China’s, which has recently constructed artificial islands with runways, study towers, and other military installations to assert its position of dominance in the area.
WSJ notes that while China has violently enforced its statements against the Philippines, it has not yet responded to Vietnam’s actions.
The , Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative ( AMTI ) noted in June 2024 that since November 2023, Vietnam has added 692 new acres across ten features, bringing its total dredging and landfill in the South China Sea to approximately 2, 360 acres – about half of China’s 4, 650 acres. This sudden expansion, according to AMTI, is a major improvement over the previous three years when Vietnam’s full was only 329 acres.
In a statement from September 2024, John Pollock and Damien Symon claim that Vietnam’s actions are motivated by a needed to strengthen its proper place in the wake of continuous territorial disputes with China and other plaintiff states.
Pollock and Damien stage out that Vietnam’s expanded troops could number long-range martial aircraft, indicating a distinct military purpose. They mention that China has remained somewhat silent on Vietnam’s present reclamation activities, perhaps due to intellectual alignments with the latter’s fresh leadership.
They even say that China’s proper solitude over Vietnam’s restoration activities may reveal Beijing’s focus on its conflict with the Philippines over the , Next Thomas Shoal.
In a December 2023 report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS), Monica Sato and other authors mention that cutter suction dredging involves slicing into coral reefs and pumping sediment to create landfills.
Sato and others point out that the technique, used extensively by China since 2013 to create synthetic islands, devastates the bottom, creating material clouds that strangle marine life and inhibit coral regeneration. They mention that unlike conventional polycarbonate dredgers, which cause less collateral damage, cutting pressure dredgers inflict widespread death, removing vital coral structures , and , altering the marine ecosystem.
Vietnam’s defense buildup significantly raises the stakes in its territorial disputes with China in addition to its accelerated area restoration in the South China Sea.
In a January 2018 essay in the peer-reviewed Asia Policy book, Derek Grossman said Vietnam has focused on modernizing its defense, especially its naval and air troops, to deter China from more intruding on its territory.
He says that Vietnam’s defense acquisitions, such as Russian Kilo-class submarines and Su-30MK2 fighter jets, alongside a system of anti-ship and surface-to-air missiles, improve Vietnam’s defensive capabilities, especially in anti-access/area neglect operations, making it costly for China to participate in any military conflict.
While China’s muted response to Vietnam’s actions may owe to Beijing’s focus on the US in the Philippines, Vietnam’s military limitations may also have contributed to Beijing’s stance.
In military terms, Grossman points out that Vietnam’s military still faces limitations regarding joint training, doctrine development and maritime domain awareness.
In a July 2021 report for the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Nguyen Phuong points out that Vietnam’s military modernization has slowed significantly since 2016.
Nguyen points out that having limited resources is a significant challenge because they are used for other national priorities like infrastructure and healthcare. He also makes note of the Vietnam People’s Army’s (VPA ) emphasis on political and propaganda over military action, which also impedes modernization efforts.
Nguyen also points out that the anti-corruption campaign spearheaded by former and recently deceased Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong has harmed military procurement by dismantling corrupt networks within the VPA, potentially affecting Vietnam’s ability to counterbalance China’s growing military influence.
In contrast to China’s aggressive behavior toward the Philippines, Vietnam’s approach to handling its territorial claims in the South China Sea may play a role.
Nguyen claims in a May 2024 article for the National Bureau of Asian Research ( NBR ) that Vietnam’s strategy for resolving tensions with China has been tactful and pragmatic, a balancing act between assertiveness and compromise.
Nguyen claims that Vietnam has historically preferred to treat China with submissiveness because of internal conservative influences, but it has increasingly sought support from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) and the US to back down against China’s assertiveness when necessary.
Despite those moves, he says that Vietnam’s strategy remains cautious, avoiding escalatory legal actions or overt alignments with major powers.
Nguyen contends that China views Vietnam as a pragmatic adversary, putting territorial interests before socialist solidarity, recognizing the need for a cooperative relationship.
He points out that China has employed a mix of coercive tactics, including gray-zone actions, to test Vietnam’s resolve while recalibrating its approach when Vietnam shows signs of defiance, fearing Vietnam’s potential pivot to the West and US.