In a less-than-ideal nuclear tone, the US is forced to use outdated nuclear ballistic missile boats and intercontinental ballistic missiles in the face of fierce energy rivalries and uncertainty.
This quarter, Breaking Defense reports , that the Pentagon, due to delays in deploying their descendants, is exploring approaches to prolong the lifetime of its ICBMs and of the channels that are called, for small, SSBNs. ( The , SS , denotes submarine, the , B, ballistic missile, while the N tells us the vessel is nuclear- powered. )
The US Department of Defense’s assistant secretary of defense for area policy, John Plumb, stated in a statement to Breaking Defense that while the agency is working on upgrading its atomic triad, it is considering ways to ensure that Minuteman III ICBMs and aging Ohio-class SSBNs stay in the mix for longer than originally anticipated.
Additionally, the release mentions that the DOD is reassessing the US Air Force’s Sentinel program , following a 37 % rise in software expenses, an flooded important enough to have qualifed as what is called in Pentagon- talk a Nunn McCurdy breach. It points out that the action required by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to enact the legislation’s terms in order to determine whether the program you continue and, if successful, to confirm its viability.
Breaking Defense says that the US Navy’s manufacturing has been plagued by , structural issues in its business center, resulting in significant 12- to- 16- quarter delays for the future Columbia- class SSBN, built by , General Dynamics , Electric Boat and , Huntington Ingalls Industries.
According to the report, the B-21 bomb from the US Air Force is the only nuclear modernization project to have closely followed the planned schedule. Despite the punctuality it notes that, due to inflation,  , Northrop Grumman , has incurred a monetary loss of$ 1 billion on the initial production, a damage that the organization is obligated to eat under the fixed- cost problems of its deal with the Air Force.
A US congressional commission on US nuclear posture, according to Breaking Defense, warned that the Pentagon’s plan for modernizing its nuclear arsenal is based on a” just in time” schedule, which involves eliminating outdated systems at the same time as new platforms.  ,
The commission recommended a number of measures to address capacity issues brought on by delays in modernization, according to the publication. Allocating funds for improvements to Ohio-class SSBNs is a proposed measure. Another is distributing the country’s aging nuclear platforms with existing nuclear warheads.
US ICBMs play a complex role in nuclear deterrence, but vulnerabilities that have sparked debates about their relevance in comparison to those from the air and sea have offended their use.  ,
In terms of the benefits, Asia Times reported in April 2023 that ICBMs serve as a “missile sponge” to draw incoming enemy missiles, thereby requiring an adversary engaged in a preemptive strike to use enough missiles to destroy widely dispersed nuclear silos.
ICBMs also offer a first-strike capability because almost all are on alert and can launch in a matter of seconds.  ,
Further, Steve Fetter and Kingston Reif note , in an October 2019 War on the Rocks article , that ICBMs act as a tripwire, forcing adversaries to attack the US mainland directly, triggering mutually assured destruction. According to Fetter and Reif, ICBMs serve as a buffer for the country’s ocean-based nuclear deterrent.
They point out weaknesses in the US ICBM arsenal, specifically that the missiles cannot survive a large-scale nuclear attack unless launched within the first 30 minutes of an incoming missile’s trajectory and impact, with the US “launch on attack” nuclear posture requiring a 10-minute response time.  ,
Additionally, they claim that a second strike can be delivered by US bombers and SSBNs, making an ICBM arsenal redundant. In contrast to bombers and SSBNs, Fetter and Reif contend that ICBMs do n’t offer any unique advantages. Indeed, they say, ICBMs are less flexible than bombers and SSBNs.  ,
Further, Toby Dalton and other authors in a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace paper from September 2022 contend that the choice between a nuclear retaliation and a non-nuclear attack on US ICBMs would be a problem. Dalton and others also point out that ICBMs from the US would have to overfly Russia to attack Chinese targets, increasing the chance of a two-front nuclear conflict.  ,  ,
SSBNs are regarded as the most effective nuclear deterrent, but the US’s long-term disarmament strategy, rising costs, and technological advancements may eventually make their relevance questionable.  ,
James Wirtz makes reference to the American commitment to maintaining an underwater nuclear deterrent due to its survivability, second-strike capability, and ability to hold targets in danger after a nuclear or conventional attack in a February 2020 article for the Australian National Security College.  ,
Wirtz points out that the Obama Administration’s pledge to end nuclear weapons as a long-term US objective results in a 40 % fewer ships per ship than the previous one, with only seven units for the next-generation US SSBNs, which would be developed in 2060.  ,
According to Wittz, support for the US SSBN program may be undermined by the high costs associated with deploying a few warheads on an expensive system and a trend toward nuclear disarmament, with the Columbia class possibly being the last US SSBN. He also makes note of the discussions that the US might have to make do with just 10 SSBNs from the Columbia class.  ,
Most tellingly, Wirtz mentions the possibility of technological “black swans” upending the relevance of SSBNs. By 2050, advancements in AI, sensor technology, and underwater communication will make the oceans transparent, which means that all submerged vessels will be able to be identified despite advancements in stealth technology, according to Asia Times in March 2023.  ,
China claims to have developed an ultra-sensitive submarine detector capable of detecting nearly imperceptible bubbles created by a nuclear submarine’s hull as a result of the magnetohydrodynamic effect, according to Asia Times in August 2023.
Additionally, according to Asia Times, China has developed a terahertz device that can detect vibrations made by low-frequency sound sources in the open sea, which was published in September 2023. Those waves reportedly can be used to identify submarines and determine their model.  ,
These problems with US land and sea-based nuclear arsenals may contribute to a bigger issue that could be exacerbated by potential nuclear proliferation and increased power competition.  ,
In an article this month, The Economist notes , that the world may be facing a period of nuclear uncertainty – specifically, that the US and its allies may face uncertainty driven by the Ukraine War and China’s expanding nuclear arsenal.  ,
The Trump and Biden administrations ‘ nuclear policies have sharp differences, according to The Economist, with the latter proposing a more robust nuclear posture with the SLCM-N program and the other trying to halt it because it is unneeded by a more restrained US nuclear posture.  ,
The publication notes that this contradiction may raise questions about the validity of the US nuclear umbrella and extended deterrence guarantees.
According to The Economist, uncertainty can result in such a situation.
- the resumption of nuclear weapons tests by the US, China, and Russia,
- the introduction of new nuclear delivery systems, and
- moves by US allies such as Japan, South Korea, and European states toward acquiring their own nuclear weapons.