Taiwan, Ukraine and Gaza get most of the attention these days. However, the Philippines are nowhere else in danger of losing its status as a trustworthy alliance. And that popularity is about to lose its way.
The China Coast Guard’s most recent and violent attempt to stop the Philippines from resupplying the old army send BNP Sierra Madre, which was intentionally grounded on Second Thomas Shoal and manned by a detachment of sailors and marines to proclaim Asian power of the water feature, was on June 17.
Second Thomas Shoal is located within the Philippines ‘ Exclusive Economic Zone ( EEZ ), so this should n’t be necessary. China, however, even asserts rights and has been stifling Philippine Coast Guard and Navy supplies efforts with growing force.
The Chinese apparently critically injured a Spanish soldier, damaged and seized Spanish boats and seized house this time, brandishing knives, axes, and spears, flashing lasers, using good weapons, and ramming against outnumbered Philippine boats.  ,
Whether or not one Spanish boat slipped through is a subject of different theories. However, this was the most bloody Taiwanese action to date against the Philippines.
Will there be more clashes between Philippine and Chinese causes?
Yes.  , The Chinese have been clear about what they intend to do with Philippine maritime , place coveted by Beijing:  , occupy, power, if needed seize and occupy – and make it impossible for their , smaller, outnumbered victims to retake , it.  ,
China has used this style throughout the South China Sea. And China is undoubtedly willing to use force to impose its will. These hostilities will continue until the Philippines ( surrenders ) or until the US intervenes and honors its obligations under the mutual defense treaty with its Philippine allies.  ,
It’s not just the China Coast Guard that’s engaged in Asian country.  , The Women’s Armed Forces Maritime , Militia is also operating in conjunction with the China Coast Guard, as is the “regular” Chinese fish ship.  , And the Chinese military is generally outside.
Nobody wants to say it, but China, at least seven or eight years ago, essentially held control of the South China Sea thanks to its artificial islands and economic advantage.  , Its hand continues to strengthen.
What’s future?
The condition is escalating. The Philippines is not able to resist the much bigger Chinese power that is deployed and that can be raised at could at Second Thomas Shoal.
The Philippines may ultimately have to eject the separation from the grounded send unless Manila agrees to a humiliating agreement with China to give up supreme power of Second Thomas Shoal in trade for Chinese approval to replenish the BNP Sierra Madre.
Should the United States get directly involved?
Only if the United States is willing to fulfill its commitment to a mutual defense treaty ally.  , If the Biden administration does nothing to help its allies, America’s reputation and reliability , will be shredded – not just in Manila or Asia but worldwide.  ,  ,
Tokyo is undoubtedly watching closely, as it has a similar treaty promising American protection from foreign aggression. In recent years, the US has already sold the Philippines to China on two occasions:
- 2012 at Scarborough Shoal, where the Chinese illegally occupied Philippine territory, and
- 2016 following the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling that overwhelmingly backed Manila’s position against Beijing’s illegal claims in the South China Sea and to Philippine maritime , territory.  ,
In 2012, Washington refused to support the Philippines in enforcing the 2016 PCA ruling.  , Manila felt betrayed.  , That’s two strikes, three strikes and you’re out.
Filipinos are presumably wondering what exactly is the benefit of the Philippines ‘ stronger US military presence in the Philippines as a result of its mutual defense treaty and the more recent Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement ( EDCA ), which have both been signed in recent months.  ,
Ferdinand Marcos, president of the Philippines, is increasingly subject to political scrutiny because he claims to have moved the country far from America and was left hanging when assistance was actually needed.
What might the US do?  ,
- No more concerns and commitments made in ironclad.
- Have US Navy ships and aircraft accompany Philippine boats on any and all missions where the Chinese might obstruct them in the country, and use force if necessary.  , Resupply Second Thomas Shoal using US ships and helicopters if necessary.  ,
- Do n’t just resupply. Help the Philippines construct a permanent structure on Second Thomas Shoal and support them in defending it.
- And remove all Chinese boats that are squatting in Scarborough Shoal, along with Philippine ships, from the US Navy.
Make it clear to Beijing that if it wants a fight, it will get one. Nothing less than this wo n’t work.
The US should also apply pressure asymmetrically. For six months, suspend the People’s Bank of China’s right to operate in the US dollar system, and also forbid all technology exports to China for six months.  ,
No need to give a reason.  , They’ll know why. But is n’t all this “escalatory”?  ,
Let China have its way with the Philippines at Second Thomas Shoal and elsewhere, and we’ll see “escalation” of an entirely different sort from the Chinese.
If the US had kept its promises earlier, this entire situation could have been avoided. Biden and Team Biden ought to try it.
Grant Newsham , is a former US diplomat, a retired US Marine intelligence officer and the author of , When China Attacks: A Warning To America.