The US intends to use the Taiwan Strait as a” Hellscape” of drone crowds to combat a potential Chinese invasion, allowing US and allies to intervene in a combat situation to help the island’s beleaguered self-governing area.
This quarter, The Washington Post reported that the US Indo- Pacific Command, led by Admiral Samuel Paparo, has announced a” Hellscape” strategy to use aircraft crowds to prevent any possible Chinese conquest of Taiwan.  ,
According to the report, the Hellscape plan responds to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s directive that the People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ) be combat- ready to take Taiwan by force, if necessary, by 2027.
To flock the Taiwan Strait to thwart Chinese forces for a fortnight, the US and its supporters will use several autonomous drones, submarines, surface ships, and other classified assets to launch a full answer.
In accordance with the Julian view of the Hellscape strategy, Taiwan was most susceptible to fall in the first 90 days of a Chinese invasion and would most likely drop immediately without US and allies’ military support.
The US military budget constraints and the PLA’s rapid growth, however, pose considerable challenges to the implementation of the Hellscape method.
For example, Asia Times has noted that the US Navy’s aircraft resources would drop to US$ 101.8 million in 2025, down from$ 172 million this season. Additionally, the US Navy continues to be focused on developing significant combatants like destroyers and submarines rather than completely adopting device technology.
In comparison, China has 232 times the US shipbuilding capacity, making it essential for the latter to engage in autonomous tech as a force multiple to mitigate the latter’s numerical advantage. Through its Replicator Program, the US has thus significantly increased the development and implementation of aircraft crowds in the Pacific.
The US Department of Defense ( DOD ) launched the Replicator Program in September 2023, according to Asia Times, to accede to the deployment of autonomous, expendable platforms for air, land, and sea operations.
Replicator aims to develop a rapid, flexible modern development process while maintaining a priceless production of large-scale, self-propelled drones. Also, it might involve a program working with the US Navy to develop large, autonomous undersea vehicles.
Replicator may already be making success. Asia Times reported in May 2024 that the US has begun a program that includes its Switchblade tank-killing bomber aircraft and also looking into low-cost autonomous death ship styles.
Drone crowds may be able to repel a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, overthrowing China’s threats while enhancing the capabilities of guarded assets.
In May 2022, Asia Times reported that the US , Air Force, in collaboration with the RAND Corporation think tank and the Air Force’s Warfighting Integration Capability ( WWIC ) office, conducted simulations that demonstrated the viability of autonomous drone swarms in Taiwan’s defense against a Chinese invasion.
In an online discourse that suggested aircraft swarms using a “mesh” light data-sharing system may be important in securing a US success, defense researcher David Ochmanek highlighted the simulations.
This network enables drones to share flight and targeting data instantaneously, making the swarm autonomous and potentially overwhelming China’s anti- access/area denial ( A2/AD ) capabilities, which include ballistic and cruise missiles, anti- satellite weapons and advanced air defense networks.
When combined with stealthy unmanned aircraft like the F-35 and F-22, drone swarms could act as decoys and expand the sensors of unmanned platforms, boosting situational awareness and target acquisition.
However, Ochmanek expressed concerns about the technology’s maturity, citing vulnerabilities to electronic warfare, cyberattacks and bandwidth limitations. In contrast to previous simulations in which the US performed poorly, he added, the 2020 simulation produced a Pyrrhic US victory.
The Ukraine war demonstrates that drones have made the battlefield deadlier, with a similar-forgettable conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS ) think tank conducted a simulation of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026, suggesting that the US and its allies could retaliate, but it would cause significant casualties for all parties, according to Asia Times ‘ report from January 2023.
The CSIS simulation estimated that the US and Japan would lose 449 combat aircraft, 43 ships ( including two aircraft carriers ) and 6, 960 personnel, with 3, 200 fatalities. Taiwan, on the other hand, was projected to lose half of its air force, 22 ships and 3, 500 ground troops, with a third of them killed in action.
China lost 138 ships, 155 combat aircraft and 52, 000 ground troops, with around 7, 000 battle casualties, 15, 000 fatalities at sea and 30, 000 prisoners of war.
The CSIS report outlined four critical assumptions for a US victory, emphasizing the importance of Taiwan’s resistance, the lack of resupply options for Taiwan, the US’s ability to utilize bases in Japan, and the necessity to strike from outside China’s A2/AD bubble.
However, the report cautioned that a Pyrrhic US victory could undermine long- term deterrence. It suggested that China might take a risk of an invasion if it saw the US’s unwillingness to suffer significant losses.
Although Paparo and other military leaders are focused on a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, it’s unlikely that China will choose to formally annex Taiwan with the mainland due to the high casualties in a cross-strait invasion in the style of Normandy.
Asia Times reported in August 2022 that China might develop a” squeeze and relax” strategy to force Taiwan to surrender through an indefinite naval blockade. 146 days ‘ worth of oil and an 11-day supply of natural gas are reported to be present in Taiwan. Such a strategy assumes that China has time and can avoid overextending itself in a Taiwan-seizing operation.
The plan involves conducting a number of military exercises that effectively act as a blockade around Taiwan. To facilitate discussion, these exercises would be followed by periods of lessening the tension. The key point is that any major military drill, which Beijing is increasingly launching, could become a blockade.
The Institute for the Study of War ( ISW) released a report in May 2024 outlining the non-military strategies China could employ against Taiwan, with a particular emphasis on four gravity centers.
The ISW report highlights China’s potential use of economic pressure, propaganda, and military threats to persuade US and Taiwanese leaders of the benefits of increased cooperation. Additionally, it mentions tactics like reducing the legitimacy of the Taiwanese government, psychological strategies to lower public morale, and misinformation efforts to weaken US public and political support for Taiwan.
The Taiwanese people will experience an overwhelming sense of abandonment and the new Taiwanese government will have to consider a “new model” for cross-strait relations, according to the report.
ISW claims that the US and Taiwan are unprepared to deal with a multiyear coercion campaign that aims to obstruct Taiwan’s eventual capitulation and annexation by China.