” Middle East Spectator”, is a pro-regime Telegram channel based in Tehran, as all advertising programs based in Tehran are – by law. Last year, Middle East Spectator , leaked two delicate intelligence files. The documents originated in the US , National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency , ( NGA ), and the information pertained to Israel’s preparation to retaliate for Iranian missile attacks.  ,
I have no re-published the papers leaked on Telegram. The above link will lead users there if they are interested.
Middle East Spectator claims that Tehran is a separate procedure. If we take this at face value, a resource in the knowledge area contacted the Spectator and shared the two documents with them. In a later article, Spectator states that the cause was in the US Defense Department to understand things more.
Spectator could only have obtained the regime’s approval to publish these papers because “news” and knowledge in Iran are really tightly controlled.  ,
It is incredibly important material that Iran may, and probable will, use to make its defenses.
One of the two leaked documents , is classified above best solution. The document’s headline reads NOFORN, which means it cannot be shared with foreign institutions.  , Assuming that the documents were not shared with allies ( such as the , Five Eyes party, whose members have unusual access to US knowledge knowledge ), that information strengthens the claim made by the Spectator, that the leak came from United States persons or businesses.  ,
The papers describe an “large push employment training” by Israel on October 15 and 16.  , The report was published on Telegraph by the , Spectator on the 18th.  ,
Whoever leaked it to Tehran was a source of alarm about an Israeli attack on the horizon. It also explained to People the types of weapons that could be used and the likely targets, which included primarily Persian air defense installations and long-range radars.  ,  ,
How do we understand? The two papers information activities at three Israeli air bases that are under extensive US surveillance and provide very detailed data on Israeli Air Force preparations for a hit.
The report properly identifies the types of cruise missiles Israel was preparing, especially a system called , ROCKS , ( which may be Israel’s longer range Crystal Maze or Crystal Maze II air launched cruise missile ) and Golden Dawn, another type of cruise missile that could be a derivative of the , Sparrow series , that originated as a specific program emulating Iranian long range weapons.
The report also says that the platform carrying these missiles would be the , F-15I, not Israel ‘s , F-35″ Adir” jets. It also mentions the surveillance platforms and refueling tankers that Israel would use.  ,  ,
There is more.  , The lesser-classified document ( secret level ) discusses Israel ‘s , Jericho II , medium range ballistic missiles, which are believed to be a critical part of Israel’s nuclear deterrent.
Jericho II is solid-fueled and can be silo based or transporter-erector-launcher ( TEL ) vehicle based. The US accepts Israel’s nuclear weapons, even though the US has never publicly acknowledged that before, according to the documentary context.
According to the relevant document, Israel may have dispersed the Jericho missiles to stop Iran from pursuing them. It further asserts that Israel’s use of its Jericho II missiles has not been detected by the US, and that a nuclear strike by Israel is unlikely.  ,  ,
Israel is without a doubt suffering significantly as a result of the leak of geospatial-origin intelligence. Additionally, it is likely that Iran has leaked much more sensitive information to the Iranians, information Iran may be keeping private. Some Spectator channel releases acknowledge this.
Why would the Iranian government (either via Spectator or by giving permission to Spectator ) leak ANY of the information?
Some speculate that the intention was to persuade Israel that the Iranian government had knowledge of the retaliation plan, preventing Israel from an attack it genuinely did n’t want to face.  , Second, perhaps, it was to warn ( boast? ) that Israel was concerned about what other information had been compromised because Iran was being given secret information by the US.
Consider this.
On October 18, the Iranian leak was made public.  , On the 19th, an alleged Hezbollah-origin drone attacked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private home in Caesarea near the coast. Accurately targeting Netanyahu’s home required “scene matching”, as any drone from Lebanon, Syria or Iraq likely would have been outside of radio control communication. Significant intelligence preparation would be required for scene matching.
Was there any assurance that Netanyahu would be at home during the attack? Or confidence that he would n’t be? Aside from the retaliation that would surely follow an actual assassination, striking the house knowing he was n’t there would be another way to tell Israel what Iran knows. Were US assets complicit? In other words, was the leak a law violation or was it the result of a decision by the administration or a member of the administration with political goals? No one can say, yet.
All of this is likely to cause Israel to undergo a significant revision.  , At minimum, the Israelis will have the opinion that US intelligence is unreliable and penetrated.  , Beyond that, some will understand the US to be overtly hostile and acting against Israel. The prime minister received phone calls from foreign heads of state, former US President Trump, and US House Speaker Mike Johnson ( after the drone attack ). Neither , President Biden nor Vice President Harris called. )
In the real world this is a very sad development.  , Israel has some of the best human intelligence ( HUMINT ) in the world and has significant access to Iran’s nuclear programs.  , Israel has, on many occasions, warned friendly ( and not so friendly ) countries about threats, including against foreign leaders, that the Mossad and other intelligence centers in Israel have detected. Leaks like this directly harm the US and put a severe damper on intelligence cooperation.
The US has apparently launched an investigation, according to House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson.  , Documents of this type are often sent via secure internet to security-cleared personnel.  , There could be hundreds, perhaps even more, with access. It might be possible to review time stamps on the individuals who accessed or copied the documents, which could help narrow the search.  , It may also be possible to track documents sent outside the US using the National Security Agency’s massive capabilities. Much depends on whether the investigation conducted is serious.
One suggestion being floated is that , maybe the documents were hacked. However, such sensitive information is not only transmitted through secret channels; it is also encrypted, making hacking less likely to yield useful results. For the record, there are no public reports of any hacks of US security information.
It is n’t clear what Israel will do. Now that at least some of Israel’s plans and preparations have been leaked, which was the original idea, it would be reckless to retaliate. Apparently, Israel and the US had already agreed not to strike Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities.  , Will that agreement hold now, or will Israel consider the agreement void?  ,  ,
Beyond that, Israel is concerned that US intelligence leaks could put another strain on its other operations against Iranian proxies from the Red Sea to Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.
Stephen Bryen served as the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Middle East subcommittee’s policy director and as its deputy undersecretary of defense.
This article was originally published on his Substack, Weapons and Strategy. It is republished with permission.