DEMOCRATS WANT STATUS QUO
The Democrats currently control both the House and the Senate. If they manage to retain both chambers of the US Congress, there would be continuity in the Biden administration’s policy on Taiwan, which leans towards status quo, said experts.
“The Democrats might want to protect Taiwan, but not to use Taiwan as a checker to the extent of provoking China,” said Associate Professor Huang Kwei-Bo from National Chengchi University’s College of International Affairs.
In the recent Taiwan Policy Act, the Senate – which is under Democratic control – at the request of the White House, removed provisions which were largely cosmetic but sure to anger Beijing, said Mr King. He noted that the Act kept substantial items such as arms sales and military financing.
The removed provisions included flying Taiwan’s flag and renaming its representative office in the US from the “Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office” to the “Taiwan Representative Office”, he said.
If the Republicans take control, however, they may not be willing to take out those minor issues so as to embarrass US President Joe Biden ahead of the 2024 election, Mr King added.
REPUBLICANS LIKELY TO TAKE TOUGHER STANCE
Although the Republicans are unlikely to make extensive changes to US’ policy on Taiwan, analysts said they are expected to push harder on certain issues, such as being less ambiguous and providing more weapons to the island.
The Republicans are also in favour of taking a firmer line on China, implicating Taiwan in the process, said Assoc Prof Huang.
“Republicans are likely to think Taiwan should act more boldly, so that it could become a checker that the US can use while competing against China. And (Taiwan) could be used as a checker that could ultimately win the game,” said Assoc Prof Huang.
“So if the Republicans win, they are bound to raise proposals in the Senate which may differ from Biden’s current policies.”
SENTIMENTS ON THE GROUND
Regular Taiwanese and residents on the island said they have been keeping a wary eye on escalating tensions and worsening cross-strait relations with China.
“Chinese President Xi (Jinping) has announced never to renounce the use of force on Taiwan. As long as he insists, it will remain our biggest threat,” a Taiwanese told CNA.