In response to rising tensions with China over Taiwan, the US has unveiled a US$ 10 billion plan to improve defense aircraft in Japan. But, aging aircraft, production problems and China’s quick- growing air force does suggest the plan is too little, too soon to drastically shift the region’s balance of air power.
The US has unveiled a complete modernization strategy for military plane stationed in Japan, according to Breaking Defense, the most recent step to strengthen the US-Japan security empire, according to Breaking Defense.
Breaking Defense says the plan, second announced in November 2023, involves replacing older F- 15s and F- 16s with superior F- 15EX and F- 35 planes and changing US Marine Corps ( USMC) F- 35B operations. The report notes that this tactical change increases punishment and fosters peace and stability in a place where tensions persist over Taiwan’s potential.
The essential to the development travel is Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, dubbed the” Foundation of the Pacific”, which will see its 48 F- 15s substituted by 36 F- 15EXs. The facility’s close vicinity to Taiwan highlights its strategic importance for both Japan’s national protection and US military interests.
According to the Breaking Defense statement, the change process will involve continued third- and fifth-generation fighter rotations, a temporary determine that was previously criticized by US Republican lawmakers.
Also, the Misawa Air Base in northern Honshu may have an update from 36 F- 16s to 48 F- 35As. The USMC Air Station Iwakuni in southern Honshu, however, will change its F- 35B secrecy warrior presence to coincide with the USMC’s force design modernization.
Although the US maintains a considerable warrior push there, its efforts to maintain a reliable power posture in China may be undermined by aging fighter aircraft, improve delays, and production issues.
In an April 2023 article for Air &, Space Forces Magazine, Chris Gordon notes that US F- 15 Eagles based at Kadena have retired after 40 years of service, raising questions about the US Air Force’s ( USAF ) capacity to match China’s growing, modern air fleet in the Pacific.
John Tirpak notes for Air &, Space Forces Magazine that, on average, US fighter planes are 29 years old. Some fighters, such as the F- 15C and F- 15E, are 37 and 30 years old, much exceeding their anticipated support lives of 12- 15 years.
With its heavy payload and upgraded sensors making it a “missile truck” to launch beyond- visual- range ( BVR ) missiles, the F- 15EX does not have stealth features that would allow it to penetrate and survive in heavily defended airspace. However, it represents a significant improvement over the older F- 15 models.
Due to this defect, the F-15EX becomes more of a stopgap model until more advanced F-22s can be deployed to Japan or until the US Next Generation Air Dominance ( NGAD ) fighter becomes operational.
Top-of-the-line F-22s were sent by the US to Kadena Air Force Base in April 2024, but it is unlikely there will be enough to compete with China’s expanding fleet of fifth-generation fighters, such as the J-20. The US stopped F- 22 production with only 187 airframes built, fewer than China’s 200 or so J- 20 stealth fighters.
Maya Carlin notes in a June 2024 article for The National Interest ( TNI ) that China produced 100 J- 20 stealth fighters last year, on top of 40- 50 units built in 2022. At that rate, Carlin says China may have 1, 000 J- 20s by 2035.
In contrast, Unshin Lee Harpley notes in a March 2024 Air &, Space Forces Magazine article that while the US can build 135 F- 35 airframes a year, 60- 70 of those planes go to US allies. Although the F- 22 is a 30- year- old plane with a 1980s stealth design and 1990s computer architecture, constant upgrades may make it a capable combat platform in the 2020s and beyond.
As a crucial component of its strategy to advance military equipment and address potential technological challenges, the USAF is focused on developing more sophisticated and battle-ready F-22 models, according to Asia Times ‘ report from May 2024.
Over the next ten years, the F- 22 fleet will receive a$ 22 billion upgrade, which could extend its service life into the 2040s. The upgrade will enhance the avionics, stealth and survivability of 142 F- 22 aircraft.
According to analysts, upgrading the F-22s will require a lot of time and resources that could be better used to research and develop a new fighter. Additionally, there are concerns the F- 22 may become obsolete for its designated purpose by the time the upgrades are finished.
As for the F- 35, the 2023 Annual Report by the Director, Operational Test &, Evaluation ( DOT&, E) released in January 2024 shows that the 628- strong US F- 35 fighter fleet has been grappling with reliability, maintainability and availability ( RMA ) issues.
The DOT&, E report shows that despite efforts to improve performance, the fleet was operational only 51 % of the time in fiscal year 2023, falling well short of a 65 % target. Additionally, it reveals a decline in aircraft availability since January 2021, with combat-coded aircraft prioritized for maintenance and spare parts reaching a monthly average availability of 61 %, which is also below target.
The DOT&, E report also shows that F- 35 full mission capability rates were below expectations, with combat- coded aircraft averaging 48 % and the overall fleet just 30 %. It says critical failures, including software stability and hardware issues, are the main contributors to the fleet’s underperformance.
The report also mentions that Block 4 mission systems software, which are underdeveloped and inadequate, are contributing to the aircraft’s progress. According to the report, there are also security concerns with the avionics for the new Technology Refresh 3 ( TR-3 ) hardware, which are being incorporated into the production Lot 15 aircraft.
China may be on track to surpass the US airpower not just in the Pacific but also globally as the US struggles to modernize its fighter force.
In a March 2024 US Senate Committee on Armed Services hearing, Admiral John Aquilino, commander of US Indo- Pacific Command ( USINDOPACOM), said that China, now with the world’s largest military and navy, will soon also have the world’s largest air force.
In line with that statement, the US Department of Defense’s ( DOD ) 2023 China Military Power Report notes that the People’s Liberation Army- Air Force ( PLA- AF ) and PLA- Navy Aviation ( PLA- N Aviation ) combined is the largest aviation force in the Indo- Pacific and the third- largest in the world with some 3, 150 aircraft, not including trainers and unmanned systems.
Around 2, 400 of those are combat aircraft such as fighters, strategic bombers, tactical bombers, multi- mission tactical and attack aircraft, the report said.