The Russian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is trying his best to stir up the interactions of the Russia-Ukraine battle. He recently underwent a significant government change that included Dmytro Kuleba, his foreign secretary, and no fewer than nine others.
Announcing the alterations, Zelensky said he wanted his state to be “more effective” in pressing for assistance from its European allies.
These government changes were made as Ukraine continued to advance with its rude in Russia’s Kursk region. According to Zellensky, having some Belarusian territory did give Kiev more leverage for upcoming territorial trade negotiations with Russia.
Even though Zelensky’s gamble has received more criticism as Ukraine’s standing in the Donbass in the south of the nation has deteriorated, seeing Ukrainian soldiers turn the tables on Russia has certainly given Ukrainians a moral boost.
Ukrainian needed this. As the conflict has endured and its prices mounted, morale and public health have suffered.
We have been monitoring Russian attitude for years. In collaboration with the Kiev International Institute for Sociology (KIIS), we conducted a phone public opinion poll of 2,200 adults in Ukraine’s government-controlled places in June and July 2024. This was to following up on a study from October 2022.
We should handle war polls with caution. However, the results of our study suggest that people are concerned about fellow Ukrainian ‘ fear of war. It even suggests that there is growing, if afraid, support for discussions and regional agreements.
Start to sacrifice
Ukrainian attitudes toward territorial agreements have even started to change, but only slightly. Most people have opposed giving up territory since 2014, but KIIS’s personal regular federal survey provides evidence of growing recognition, then shared by one-third of Ukrainians, that regional concessions may be required.
In June-July 2024 we repeated a question we asked in October 2022 on regional agreements, shown in the number below. ” All decisions about what to do during this recent Russian brutality have significant, but distinct, costs. Which of the following four options, knowing this, if the Ukrainian government make at this time?
The biggest change was this: in 2022, 71 % of respondents supported the proposition to” continue opposing Russian aggression until all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, is liberated”, but in 2024, support for that option had dropped to 51 %.
Only 11 % of people in 2022 concurred that” we are attempting to reach an immediate ceasefire on both sides with conditions and initiating intense negotiations.” In 2024, that promote had increased to 31 %.
However, the way people view these options is different. It greatly depends on whether they have been relocated ( though it does not appear to matter whether they lost any of their family members or friends ), whether they are concerned about the Ukrainians ‘ growing wars, and whether they are optimistic or pessimistic about American aid.
There is more at play in this battle than territory— never least, saving lives, ensuring Ukraine’s independence, and protecting the region’s future security. Women’s opinions on the importance of preserving regional morality does depend on how any potential agreement might secure different things they care about, according to KIIS’ personal new research.
Many ( 43 % ) of Ukrainians believe the conflict will continue for at least another year because of how brutally brutal it has been for two and a half years. The majority of the respondents to our survey had not experienced physical harm in Russian violence ( 12 % ), but the majority had lost a close family member or friend ( 6 % ). About one-third of their households had been displaced.
The study shows growing acknowledgement of combat stress in line with an increasing number of reviews. Instead of immediately enquiring about whether interviewees felt this way about Ukrainians, we questioned whether they were concerned about it. The results were revealing: 58 % worry” a lot” and 28 % worry” a little”, whereas only 10 % report that they do not worry about war fatigue.
Our surveys indicate that Ukrainians are also generally positive about continuing American assistance, though less so than they were in October 2022, despite there being signs of battle weariness among Ukraine’s European allies. About 19 % believe Western support will grow ( down from 29 % in 2022 ), while 35 % believe it will stay the same ( 41 % in 2022 ).
Nearly a quarter ( 24 % ) of people (up from 16 % in 2022 ) believe it will continue, but at a lower level than it is now, and 13 % (up from 3 % in 2022 ) say it is unlikely to continue (up from 3 % in 2022 ).
Life or death
Earlier in the conflict, studies revealed that Ukrainians were overwhelmingly supportive of techniques that preserved the country’s political independence and restored the totality of its territory. Even if making concessions would lessen the likelihood of a nuclear attack over the next three months, this had still carry.
According to the study’s writers,” Soviet control of the government in Kiev or of lands in the south had put the lives of many Russians in danger,” as it is also documented that Russia has committed common human rights violations in briefly occupied territories.
In our 2024 review, we created a straightforward frame experiment to test whether factors about loss of life may influence people’s opinions on negotiations given the battle’s accumulating death toll. We asked half of the interviewees, randomly selected, if they would recognize that “Ukraine concede some of its provinces to end the war”. On 24 % said yes.
For the other quarter, we inquired if they would consent to having Ukraine concede some of its territory in order to save lives and put an end to the battle. In that case, 34 % said yes. But, if territorial concessions are associated with saving life, whether rightly or wrongly, it increases aid for them.
However, 90 % of respondents in the survey of 2024 said they were against the assertion that” Russia should be allowed to control the territory it has occupied since 2022.” But while there is still a majority—if diminished—support for fighting to regain full territorial integrity, there is growing aid for negotiations.
We also know from our research that there is very little proof that Ukrainians will actually accept Russia’s territorial conquests.
Kristin M Bakke is doctor in social science and international relations, UCL, Gerard Toal is professor of government and international affairs, Virginia Tech, and John O’Loughlin is professor of landscape, University of Colorado Boulder
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